Magic Formula Stocks - Joel Greenblatt

Free 7-day Trial

The information is for Premium Members Only.

If you are a Premium Member, please Log In. If you are not a Premium Member, we invite you for a

7-day Free Trial

What is Joel Greenblatt Magic Formula?


Joel Greenblatt is Background A widely respected hedge-fund manager. Joel Greenblatt, started as a value purist but was influenced by Warren Buffett's view about growth being part of the value equation. He founded Gotham Capital, a fund which apparently returned over 40% annualized from 1985 to 2005. By 1995, it had returned all money to its outside investors. He has authored two books, "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" and New York Times bestsellier, "The Little Book That Beats the Market," and is also adjunct professor at Columbia University Business School. Greenblatt espouses MFI as a do-it-yourself version of the approach he has used while amassing his investment track record. With the "Little Book," Greenblatt wanted to write a book his children could read and learn from. The main point Greenblatt makes is that investors should buy good companies at bargain prices.

Magic Formula Investing uses return on capital and earnings yield as its inputs. Return on capital is seen as the best determinant of whether a business is a good one or not. Companies that can earn a high ROC over time generally have a special advantage that keeps competition from destroying it (e.g., name recognition, a new product that is hard to duplicate or a unique business model).

Earnings yield is the metric that shows whether a company is cheap or not. Greenblatt says that stock prices of a firm can experience "wild" swings even as the value of the company stays relatively constant giving investors opportunities to buy low and sell high.

Calculation/Definition of the Magic Formula:

1. Define minimum Market Capitalization that meets your liquidity needs. Greenblatt used a market capitalization floor of $50 million, but advised that you can set the minimum as high as $5 billion.
2. Sector Filter: Due to their unique financial structures, all stocks in the financial and utility sectors are excluded. Calculate Earnings Yield = EBIT / enterprise value.
3. Calculate Return on Capital = EBIT / (Net fixed assets + working capital)
4. EY Rank: Rank the stocks in descending order based on Earnings Yield and assign a rank number to each.
5. ROC Rank: Rank the same stocks in descending order based on Return on Capital and assign a rank number to each.
6. Add the rankings and select stocks that have the lowest combined ranking score. So a company that is ranked 358nd best in terms of ROC and 122rd highest in EY would gets a better combined ranking (i.e., 470) than a company that is ranked 1st in ROIC but only 950th best in EY (i.e., 951).

If you are not a Premium Member, we invite you for a

7-day Free Trial
Regions

Current Selected: USA
Show All Countries ▾

This information is for Premium Members Only.


Take the full advantage of Gurus' investment ideas now.

7-Day Free Trial
Symbol Company Predictability Market Cap ($mil) Earnings Yield (%) Return on Capital (%) 10-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%) 5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%) P/E Yield (%) Rank
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 1/5
Business Predictability Rank: 1-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 1-Star stocks: 1.1% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 45%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
15874.35314.00474.800.00 0.003.491
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 267.90057.50208.100.00 0.000.002
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 5923.05017.90179.800.00 5.502.513
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 6216.61917.90179.800.00 5.502.664
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 1/5
Business Predictability Rank: 1-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 1-Star stocks: 1.1% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 45%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
2124.29113.80478.580.00 0.002.655
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 44900.96030.0096.570.00 0.003.706
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 1497.75911.6032849.300.00 0.002.517
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 706.84412.80821.710.00 0.000.188
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 1/5
Business Predictability Rank: 1-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 1-Star stocks: 1.1% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 45%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
12.29057.5074.170.00 14.300.009
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 7395.00013.00664.500.00 0.004.3110
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 7293.75013.00664.500.00 0.004.4411
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 2.5/5
Business Predictability Rank: 2.5-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 2.5-Star stocks: 7.3% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 18%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
481.70032.9087.6724.00 16.700.4012
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 1/5
Business Predictability Rank: 1-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 1-Star stocks: 1.1% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 45%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
102.91015.10269.010.00 0.000.0013
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 1683.80021.80119.900.00 0.005.8014
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 4/5
Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
565.43813.20565.4838.70 15.601.5315
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 7010.00035.0084.150.00 0.002.8816
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 7010.00035.0084.150.00 0.003.2117
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 22285.05131.6088.960.00 2.900.9818
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only 19977.68731.6088.960.00 2.900.0019
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 1/5
Business Predictability Rank: 1-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 1-Star stocks: 1.1% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 45%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
174.84817.20181.600.00 -22.307.0720

Add Notes, Comments

If you want to ask a question, or report a bug, please create a support ticket.

User Comments

No comment yet



Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
Free 7-day Trial
FEEDBACK