David Einhorn (Trades, Portfolio) had a mediocre quarter one, dropping 1.5% while the S&P gained 1.2%, but he spies opportunities up ahead, according to his Greenlight Capital letter. One such is a short of a basket of technology stocks he believes are far overvalued and due for a correction, for which there is a precedent from the last tech bubble.
“Given the enormous stock price volatility, we decided to short a basket of bubble stocks,” he wrote in his letter. “A basket approach makes sense because it allows each position to be very small, thereby reducing the risk of any particular high-flier becoming too costly. The corollary to 'twice a silly price is not twice as silly' is that when the prices reconnect to traditional valuation methods, the de-rating can be substantial. There is a huge gap between the bubble price and the point where disciplined growth investors (let alone value investors) become interested buyers. When the last internet bubble popped, Cisco (CSCO) (the best of the best bubble stocks) fell 89%, Amazon fell 93%, and the lower quality stocks fell even more.” Continue Reading »