We added to our short position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR
). Although the company again missed the consensus estimate for sales, bullish analysts scrambled to lower forward revenue forecasts while insisting that all is well in mudville. Attention quickly shifted away from the results when new CEO Brian Kelley announced on the Q3 earnings call that GMCR would hold its first ever investor day in September. When asked what prompted the decision, Mr. Kelley said, "I think a number of people on our team have found that an investor day that is crisp, but thorough on the key issues can be very valuable to help people understand our company. And I think it's – that's the core purpose is to help you understand our company better.
"The evening before the invitation-only event on September 10, the New York Times reported that there was a large discrepancy between the number of K-Cups the company says it has sold and the numbers implied using data from the tracking firm IRI. For years there have been questions about misconduct within GMCR's distribution and accounting departments. This new information raised the possibility that this activity is continuing, with GMCR potentially booking hundreds of millions of dollars of non-existent K-Cup sales. Continue Reading »