Last Update: 12-31-1969

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  • Stock Market Valuations Continue to Increase, Negative Returns Expected

    As mentioned in the previous article, the stock market has been significantly overvalued as of July 1. However, the valuation continued to increase throughout July. As of July 29, the total market cap / gross domestic product ratio reached 123.5%, about 4% higher than the ratio as of July 1. Based on the current TMC / GDP ratio, the stock market is expected to average -0.1% per year for the next eight years.

    Buffett’s market indicator predicts negative returns


  • DuPont and Dow Beat Earnings Estimates

    DuPont (NYSE:DD) reported its second quarter earnings on Tuesday, July 26 before the opening bell. The company beat analysts’ average estimate for both revenue and earnings in the second quarter. For the quarter, revenue was $7.06 billion, beating estimates by $50 million. Earnings per share for the quarter were $1.24, beating analysts’ average earnings estimate by $0.14.

    Revenue for the quarter was down 0.8% from the comparable quarter. Earnings per share however increased 14%. For the quarter DuPont reported revenue decreases in every business segment with losses led by electronics and communications down 6%.


  • IVA Worldwide Fund 2nd Quarter Commentary

    The IVA Worldwide Fund Class A (NAV) (“the Fund”) ended the quarter on June 30, 2016 with a return of 0.91% versus the MSCI All Country World Index (“Index”) return of 0.99% bringing YTD performance to 1.90% versus the Index return of 1.23% for the same period.

    The majority of the second quarter was uneventful. And then Brexit happened. Although the possibility of the UK voting to Leave the EU had been on investors’ minds for months, most everyone was surprised by the final result on June 24th. Markets recoiled, the Pound plummeted, and the currency safe havens of the USD and JPY leapt. It became clear that markets never truly believed the UK would Leave and that the possibility wasn’t adequately priced in. Brexit brings along with it a multitude of financial and political uncertainties and it is unclear at this time what the ultimate global consequences will be. What is clear, yet again, is that attempting to forecast market events can be both futile and dangerous. At IVA we continue to focus on valuations, worst case scenarios, and their impact on our portfolio. This has helped us minimize drawdowns through many storms, most recently the market’s reaction to Brexit. We believe our portfolio is well positioned as we grapple with post-Brexit unknowns on top of other risks we see, including large credit excesses in China and prolonged Central Bank manipulations. We remain cautious, requiring risk premiums that accurately reflect the current treacherous investment environment.


  • Sarah Ketterer's Causeway Funds Commentary: The Price of Popularity

    Successful value managers are accustomed to taking unpopular positions. Their best investments frequently begin with unloved and underappreciated stocks that may face short-term challenges, either perceived or real. Over time, the issues are surmounted and the market’s discount fades. By the time those stocks become more universally embraced, it is probably time to sell. But sometimes entire regions gain or lose popularity. At Causeway, we approach the developed world as bottom-up analysts. Top-down considerations play a role in our investment process, but only insofar as they affect a specific company: How will macroeconomic conditions impact sales and profitability of an individual stock in the foreseeable future? After incorporating various scenarios and valuation methodologies, is this stock still undervalued? And based upon the answers to these types of questions, we may be drawn to or away from geographies that exhibit more or fewer attractive value opportunities.


  • Second Quarter Sales Down 5% for Coca-Cola

    The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) reported its second quarter earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday, July 27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average company missed its revenue estimate and beat its earnings per share expectation. Revenue for the quarter was $11.54 billion, missing analysts’ average estimate by $100 million. Earnings per share for the quarter were $0.60, beating analysts’ average estimate by $0.02.

    Total revenue for the company was down 5% from the comparable quarter. Earnings per share for the quarter were also lower with a comparable quarter decrease of 5%.


  • Cost Reductions a Focus in the Second Quarter for United Technologies

    United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) reported its second quarter earnings results before the opening bell on Tuesday, July 26. The industrial company beat analysts’ average estimate for revenue and earnings. For the second quarter, revenue was $14.87 billion, beating estimates by $200 million. Second quarter earnings per share were $1.82, beating estimates by $0.14.

    Revenue for the quarter increased 1.2% from the comparable quarter. Revenue growth was led by Pratt & Whitney which increased 3.7% from the comparable quarter. Pratt & Whitney accounted for 26% of revenue at $3.7 billion.


  • Steven Cohen Buys AMAG Pharmaceuticals

    On July 25, Steven Cohen (Trades, Portfolio) of Point72 Asset Management gained a new holding with AMAG Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAG).

    AMAG Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts. Its products are targeted toward maternal health, anemia management and cancer supportive care. The company also helps families preserve newborn stem cells to aid in the research and development of regenerative medicine. Its four main products are Makena, CBR, Feraheme and MuGard.


  • Yamana released its Q2 2016 results

    On July 28, 2016, YAMANA GOLD INC. (NYSE:AUY) reported its financial and operational results for the second quarter 2016:

    • Net earnings of $32.9 million or $0.03 per share, an increase of $39.9 million or $0.04 per share compared to the second quarter of 2015.

  • Coca-Cola Co Is Significantly Overvalued

    Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today - July 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company's historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

    Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Coca-Cola Company is a beverage company. The Company owns or licenses and markets over 500 nonalcoholic beverage brands, primarily sparkling beverages but also a range of still beverages, such as waters, enhanced waters, juices and juice drinks, ready-to-drink teas and coffees, and energy and sports drinks. The Company's segments include Eurasia and Africa, Europe, Latin America, North America, Asia Pacific, Bottling Investments and Corporate. It owns and markets a range of nonalcoholic sparkling beverage brands, including Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. It markets, manufactures and sells beverage concentrates, which are referred to as beverage bases, and syrups, including fountain syrups (concentrate business or concentrate operations), and finished sparkling and still beverages (finished product business or finished product operations). In the United States, it manufactures fountain syrups and sells them to fountain retailers, such as restaurants and convenience stores.


  • Investing in the World's Third Richest Man

    Amazon’s second quarter earnings were so good that it send the stock northbound and carried Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s CEO who holds 18% of Amazon’s shares, to 3rd place in the world’s richest list.

    Amazon reported $1.78 earnings per share on quarterly revenues of $30.4 billion while analysts were expecting the company to report $1.11 earnings per share on revenues of $29.5 billion. For a company with a long reputation for spending more than what they earn, the record-breaking numbers are great, but if you have been following Bezos for some time then you must know that he will find a way to reinvest all that growth back into the company.


  • Dividend Growth Stocks for Intelligent Investors - July 2016

    Dividend Growth Stocks

    Dividend growth investing is a very popular approach which can fit within the ModernGraham methods. This article will look at companies reviewed by ModernGraham which have grown their dividends annually for at least the last 20 years.


  • Activision Has More Room To Run

    I have been bullish on Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) for a few months and the stock has shot up about 30% in the meantime. Despite the strong upward movement, Activision may have more room to rum heading into the earnings report. Thus, I think investors should continue holding onto the stock.

    Activision is doing a great job


  • Here’s Why You Should Dump Tesla

    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls have consistently sustained the stock’s overvaluation; however there are plenty of reasons to stay away from the stock. While Tesla’s overvaluation has withstood the test of time, it will not last long.

    Reduced guidance


  • The Yellen Fed Boost to Bank of America

    The Federal Reserve deliberated on its monetary policy after the shocking decision by Britain to leave the European Union last month. The overtone of the July 2016 FOMC meeting was bullish. The Fed wasn’t too concerned about the possible fallout of Brexit and we can attribute this to the smooth transition of power from David Cameron to Theresa May.

    For now, the world operates on the assumption that May has a game plan for an orderly exit of Britain that would take two years once it triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. In other words, Brexit is now a medium-term concern, and the EU did not disintegrate as feared earlier.


  • Yum Brands Looks Good After Earnings

    Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) reported better-than-expected second quarter results with adjusted earnings of 75 cents per share on $3.01 billion revenue against an expectation of 74 cents per share on revenue of $3.09 billion. Yum’s same store sales remained flat.

    Company CEO Greg Creed said in a statement, “Challenging industry conditions in the U.S. contributed to soft sales results. However, our three brand divisions in the aggregate delivered core operating profit growth largely in line with our expectations and remain on track to deliver against their full-year core operating profit growth targets.”


  • GM Records Strong Quarterly Results, Raises Outlook

    General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) prospects look bright for the whole year as the company reported impressive second quarter results with sales and profits both rising.

    The automaker’s adjusted earnings surged 44% to $1.86 per share, ahead of analysts' estimates by 34 cents. Net income for the quarter came in at $2.9 billion, or $1.81 a share, which is more than double the net income the company registered in last year's second quarter. General Motors is getting strong prices for its high volume models such as Chevrolet Malibu, Cruze and Cadillac XT5 SUV. This has been one of the key contributors behind the company’s remarkable performance. Here’s a brief look at GM’s second quarter earnings.


  • Buy at the Right Pryce

    This week Pryce Corporation (PHS:PPC) of the Philippines reported an outstanding 45.85% profit growth in the first half of 2016, compared to last year’s. As a result, Mr. Asian Market reacted flat post-earnings announcement. According to Bloomberg data, Pryce has a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9.7 times and price-to-sales ratio of 1.1 times with no dividend payouts since September 1995. In contrast, iShares MSCI Philippines ETF (EPHE) had a PE ratio of 22 times. Further, Pryce had returned an amazing 47% year to date.


  • Kimberly-Clark CEO Trims Holdings in Company

    Thomas Falk (Insider Trades), CEO and chairman of the board of Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB), sold 206,445 shares in the company on July 26. The price per share was $133.40 for a total transaction of $27,539,762.

    Kimberly-Clark is a global personal care corporation that focuses on paper-based products for health, hygiene and well-being. The company has a market cap of $46.81 billion.


  • US Market Indexes Mixed With No Rate Change

    U.S. market indexes were mixed in trading on Thursday.

    For the day the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower closing at 18,456.35 for a loss of 15.82 points or 0.09%. The Standard & Poor's 500 was higher, closing at 2,170.06 for a gain of 3.48 points or 0.16%. The Nasdaq Composite closed higher at 5,154.98 for a gain of 15.17 points or 0.30%. The VIX Volatility Index was lower at 12.72 for a loss of 0.11 points or 0.86%.


  • Timing and Legal Issues Thwart 2 Mergers

    As mentioned in the previous article, mergers are subject to an eclectic variety of risks: earnings risk, financing risk and legal risk. Although a merger may have a strong strategic rationale and target performance, the deal can still fail due to timing and legal issues. Such drawbacks resulted in two of the major merger failures this year.

    NextEra Energy-Hawaiian Electric merger fails after seven-month delay


  • A Cisco Dividend Play Is Not Just About Yield

    Though I like to select companies that represent an oligopoly or a duopoly for a dividend portfolio, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) is possibly one of the few companies that I would like to have despite the company operating in an extremely competitive environment.

    There are several parts of the business that can withstand the competition and allow the company to keep moving forward. When you factor in its financial strength and ability to keep dividends flowing into the next decade, Cisco indeed makes a compelling investment case.


  • Disappointing 2nd Quarter Results for Goldcorp

    Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG) announced its results Wednesday for the second quarter ending June 30. The miner reported net loss of $78 million, or 9 cents per share, compared to net earnings of $392 million, or 47 cents per share, in 2015.

    Second-quarter earnings were negatively impacted by lower production, partially offset by an increase in the realized gold price.


  • Microsoft, We Have a Surface Problem

    When Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) launched Surface Hub – its giant digital boards in 2015 after many delays, many people wrote that it may have priced the product way off. It wasn’t that hard to agree with their logic because the 55- and 84-inch Windows 10-powered units targeting businesses cost $8,999 and $21,999.

    While it’s easy to mistake the Hub for a giant TV, in reality Microsoft was aiming to get into office meeting rooms and anywhere that collaboration and digital sharing were required. The Surface Hub was created with collaboration in mind so that the digital board can sit in the conference room, allowing employees to carry out presentations, conduct video calls or even use Office 365. In essence, it was a way for Microsoft to expand the utility of its own product lines its Office suite, Skype for Business and so on that primarily target business users.


  • Should Johnson & Johnson Investors Be Worried About Ovarian Cancer Link?

    Reports have emerged claiming that Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), which is the world’s largest company in the health care sector, has been covering up the link between talcum powder and ovarian cancer for decades.

    Talcum powder is a Johnson & Johnson product included in several of the company’s products. The company was marketing the product to low-income people, and after years of critique and denial it is now being claimed that Johnson & Johnson knew about the product’s links to ovarian cancer in women.


  • 3 Pitfalls of Options Trading No One Mentions

    Let’s discuss the downsides to options no one ever mentions.

    The reason no one talks about these pitfalls is that it’s against the system’s best interest. The system wants retail traders churning their accounts at brokerages with tons of options trades. The more trades the better.


  • Harley Davidson: Wait for the Bear Market to Trade HOG

    Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) has a durable competitive advantage in the motorcycle industry, with more than 100 years of manufacturing expertise, brand strength from a large dealer network and owns close to 50% of the market, but who cares?

    Motorcycles are such a niche part of the automobile market as a whole that anyone could own it 100%, make a ton of money doing it and still not generate growth for shareholders at this point. Oh, wait, that’s exactly what Harley has done in the last decade.


  • How Intel and Microsoft Dealt Differently With the Same Problem

    There are several technology companies that are going through a huge transition. As the world around us changes, so do consumer preferences. Then, more often than not, someone innovates something that totally transforms the world as we know it.

    Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) got us into the smartphone era, turning a smartphone into a must-have accessory. Once that started we were hooked on mobile devices, laying the groundwork for tablets to take off. And as tablets grew increasingly more powerful and portable, our dependency on personal computers started nosediving.


  • Stocks With High Yield: Oracle, Cal-Maine, Infosys

    I want to highlight stocks that have a growing dividend yield with sustainable payout ratio. This sustainability is confirmed to long term company profitability and a very strong financial situation :

    CA Inc.


  • T. Rowe Price Continues to Buy Union Pacific, Citigroup

    The T. Rowe Price Equity Income Fund (PRFDX) has been managed by John Linehan since 2015. In both the first and second quarters of 2016, the fund bought shares in the following stocks:

    Willis Towers Watson PLC. (WLTW)


  • Warren Buffett Is Wrong; Macro Is Important Part 2

    In part one of our two-part series on macroeconomics we detailed why incorporating macroeconomics into your investment process is critical. A proper understanding of the macroeconomic environment can help you make better decisions when it comes to identifying attractive countries in which to invest and help you better project a company’s future earnings. But understanding the macroeconomic environment can be difficult.

    Just like with stock analysis the macroeconomic world is filled with people constantly offering their opinions. On top of that we are bombarded with a litany of economic statistics. Fed manufacturing surveys, jobless claims, PMI surveys, consumer confidence, freight car loadings, the Baltic Dry Index and on and on. So how can we make sense of it all?


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