Given recent headlines out of California, municipal bond investors would likely be surprised to learn that municipal bankruptcies in 2012 are actually below those of 2011, both in number and dollar amount, and that 2011’s filings were in turn lower than those in 2010. Overall municipal defaults and bankruptcies remain exceedingly low. However, with developments in California in recent weeks, a municipal investor could be forgiven for presuming that a tectonic shift in municipal credit quality was underway. Over a period of several weeks, Stockton and Mammoth Lakes filed for bankruptcy and San Bernardino and Compton are now actively exploring the possibility. While troubling in that they occurred so close together, these cities (specifically Stockton, San Bernardino and Compton) represent very troubled credits, both economically and fiscally, pushed to the edge by the housing bust and/or by poor or negligent management.
We believe that a municipal bankruptcy continues to carry significant costs, in terms of expense, political backlash and most important, access to market capital when it is needed most. As such, we disagree with those who now believe the stigma of bankruptcy is wearing off and that we are facing an onslaught of new filings. For the vast majority of municipalities, we expect a bankruptcy filing will remain a last ditch effort, once all other fiscal options have been exhausted.
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