John Hussman

John Hussman

Last Update: 2015-02-02

Number of Stocks: 188
Number of New Stocks: 39

Total Value: $1,006 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 24%

Countries: USA
Details: Top Buys | Top Sales | Top Holdings  Embed:

John Hussman Watch

  • Tupperware Brands – Short-Term Dip Provides Long-Term Opportunity

    Tupperware Brands (TUP) is a current selection of GuruFocus’ Undervalued Predictable Companies screen. This screen looks for undervalued companies that are highly ranked based on GuruFocus’ Predictability Rank (read more: What is Predictability Rank). We have found strong correlations between the predictability of businesses and the long-term return of stocks, as shown in the table below.


      


  • Latin America Should Provide Growth Opportunities

    Let's take a look at DirecTV (DTV), a $43.95 billion market cap company that is engaged in providing digital television entertainment in the U.S. and Latin America. Let's take a look at this company and try to explain to investors the reasons this is an apparently appealing investment.


    Growth regions

      


  • Cisco´s Results Beat Wall Street Expectations

    In this article, let's take a look at Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), a $148.81 billion market cap company, which is a tech giant and today is a trending stock in the market.


    Reversing Direction

      


  • Charles Brandes' Top Buys During Q4

    Charles Brandes (Trades, Portfolio) founded Brandes Investment Partners in 1974, which manages a variety of global equity and fixed-income assets for investors worldwide.


    Brandes and the firm follow Ben Graham’s value investing approach. Brandes even met the legendary father of value investing at the beginning of his career while working the front desk of a small brokerage firm in California. According to the firm’s website, Brandes’ conversations and correspondence with Graham would solidify his conviction to follow the value investing strategy.

      


  • Market Valuations and Expected Returns – February 10, 2015

    The market was up more than 30% in 2013, the best year since the go-go years of the 1990s. 2014 was another strong year for the market. The S&P 500 index was up more than 13%. Since the market recovery in 2009, the stock market has been up for 6 consecutive years. Yet in January 2015, the stock market benchmark S&P 500 lost 3.10%. Can the market continue to grow in 2015?


    Bernard Baruch once said, “A market without bears would be like a nation without a free press. There would be no one to criticize and restrain the false optimism that always leads to disaster.”

      


  • Expect A Decade of 1.7% Annual Returns From Conventional Asset Mix – John Hussman

    Friday’s employment report showed a 257,000 increase in January non-farm payrolls. This news was followed by a spike in Treasury yields up to 1.96%, a 4% plunge in utility stocks, a 5% plunge in precious metals shares, and took the S&P 500 within a fraction of a percent of December’s record high, before a late-day retreat. These frantic market movements smack of an investment climate dominated by one-dimensional “theme” based behavior – where asset prices have been amped up on yield-seeking speculation, but where the most marginal change in the outlook can trigger a race for the hills or a pile-on, depending on whether the asset has features that are consistent with that theme. On Friday, the knee-jerk reaction was that stronger employment will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner, creating a scramble to get out of yield-sensitive Treasury bonds and utilities, to buy dollars, and to sell foreign currencies and gold. Of course, in equilibrium, there must be someone on the other side of those trades, so prices moved to the extent needed to find that match.


    Even after last week’s volatility, we continue to observe dispersion in market internals, a recent widening of credit spreads, and other features of market action that – at least for now – convey a subtle but measurable shift toward risk-aversion among investors, in an environment where risk premiums remain razor thin.

      


  • A Look at John Hussman's Recent Additions to His Portfolio

    John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio) of Hussman Strategic Advisors, Inc. is known for not holding back on sharing his opinions about the government's handling of the nation's financial state. He has openly criticized the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. He is also known for predicting the U.S. Recession in 2008-2009 and since the end of 2009, he has been calling for another financial crisis to come along due to the poor policy choices made by the government.


    "The combination of widening credit spreads, deteriorating market internals, plunging commodity prices, and collapsing yields on Treasury debt continues to be most consistent with an abrupt slowing in global economic activity. Generally speaking, joint market action like this provides the earliest signal of potential economic strains..." Hussman says.

      


  • Market Action Suggests Abrupt Slowing Of Economic Activity – John Hussman

    The combination of widening credit spreads, deteriorating market internals, plunging commodity prices and collapsing yields on Treasury debt continues to be most consistent with an abrupt slowing in global economic activity. Generally speaking, joint market action like this provides the earliest signal of potential economic strains, followed by the new orders and production components of regional purchasing managers indices and Fed surveys, followed by real sales, followed by real production, followed by real income, followed by new claims for unemployment, and confirmed much later by payroll employment. Stronger conclusions, particularly about the U.S. economy, will require more evidence, but from a global perspective, these pressures are already quite evident.


    It’s striking how little economic thought seems to go into talking-head assessments of these developments. The plunge in Treasury yields, for example, is attributed to yield-seeking in response to expectations of European Q-ECB. But if investors still retained speculative yield-seeking preferences, we would observe that uniformly through similar yield-seeking in lower quality credit, as well as risk-seeking in equities without large internal divergences (factors that serve as the central distinction between overvalued markets that continue to advance, and overvalued markets that drop like a rock – see A Most Important Distinction). Instead, the broad retreat – though still early – from speculative assets toward havens considered free of default, essentially signals a shift toward risk aversion. Bad things tend to happen when compressed risk premiums meet increasing risk aversion. As I’ve frequently noted, risk premiums tend to normalize in spikes, so low and expanding risk premiums are the root of abrupt market losses.

      


  • Weekly 3-Year Low Highlights: BNS, CAT, NOV, YNDX

    According to GuruFocus list of 3-year lows, Bank of Nova Scotia, Caterpillar Inc, National Oilwell Varco Inc, and Yandex NV have all reached their 3-year lows.


    Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) reached $48.04

      


  • John Hussman: QE and the ECB - "Authorize" Is A Slippery Word

    Last week, the Swiss National Bank abandoned its attempt to tie the Swiss franc to the euro. For the past three years, the SNB has been trying to keep the franc from appreciating relative to the rest of Europe by accumulating euros and issuing francs. As the size of Switzerland’s foreign exchange holdings began to spiral out of control, Switzerland finally pulled the plug. The Swiss franc immediately soared by 49% (from 0.83 euros/franc to 1.24 euros/franc), but later stabilized to about 1 euro/franc. While numerous motives have been attributed to the Swiss National Bank, the SNB made its reasons clear: "The euro has depreciated considerably against the US dollar and this, in turn, has caused the Swiss franc to weaken against the US dollar. In these circumstances, the SNB concluded that enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified." In effect, the SNB simply did what the German Bundesbank wishes it could do: abandon the policies of European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, and the euro printing inclinations he embraces.


    A quick update on what we call our "joint parity" estimates of currency valuation (see our recent discussion of the Japanese yen in Iceberg at the Starboard Bow). Considering long-term purchasing power parity (which certainly does not hold in the short-run) jointly with interest rate parity (see Valuing Foreign Currencies), we presently estimate reasonable valuations of about $1.35 for the euro, and about $1.13 for the Swiss Franc - so after the wild currency moves of last week, we suddenly view the Swissie to be almost precisely where we think it should be relative to the dollar. At least one hedge fund and a number of FX brokerages were wiped out last week as their customers were caught with leveraged short positions against the franc. Data from the CME shows asset managers and leveraged money heavily short the euro (with commercial dealers on the other side), and by our estimates, the decline in the euro is overextended. That's a high-risk combination for euro shorts.

      


  • A Better Lesson Than This Time Is Different – John Hussman

    In June, we completed a very challenging transition in our methods of classifying market return/risk profiles. That transition started with my 2009 insistence on stress-testing our methods against Depression-era data, resulted in ensemble methods that were stronger across history than our pre-2009 methods, but failed to sufficiently capture certain bubble-tolerant features of those methods, and was completed when we adapted by imposing variants of those features as a set of overlays – largely relating to market internals, credit spreads, and other factors that I’ve often referred to as “trend uniformity.”


    You can see the effect of those overlays in the June 16, 2014 comment Formula for Market Extremes, with additional detail on this transition in Setting the Record Straight and Hard Won Lessons and The Bird in the Hand.

      


  • Weekly Guru Bargains Highlights: TOT, NOV, APC, FCX, HAL

    According to GuruFocus updates, these stocks have declined the most since Gurus have bought.


    Total SA (TOT): Down 26% Since John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio) Bought In the Quarter Ended on 2014-09-30

      


  • The Line Between Rational Speculation and Market Collapse – John Hussman

    The Shiller P/E (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings) is now 27, versus a long-term historical norm of 15 prior to the late-1990s bubble. Importantly, the profit margin embedded into the Shiller P/E is currently 6.7% versus a historical norm of just 5.4%. The implied margin is simply the denominator of the Shiller P/E divided by current S&P 500 revenues (the ratio of trailing 12-month earnings to revenues is even higher at 8.9%). As I showed in Margins, Multiples and the Iron Law of Valuation, taking this embedded margin into account significantly improves the usefulness and correlation of the Shiller P/E in explaining actual subsequent market returns. With this adjustment, the margin-adjusted Shiller P/E is now nearly 34, easily more than double its historical norm.


    This fact is important, because the Shiller P/E averaged 40 during the first 9 months of 2000 as the tech bubble was peaking. But that Shiller P/E was associated with an embedded profit margin of only 5.0%. Adjusting for that embedded margin brings the margin-adjusted Shiller P/E at the 2000 peak to 37.

      


  • Garmin Is Somewhat Expensive At These Levels

    In this article, let's take a look at Garmin Ltd. (GRMN), a $10.32 billion market cap company that provides navigation, communications and information devices for the aviation, marine, general recreation, automotive, wireless and OEM markets.


    Innovation and R&D

      


  • CH Robinson Worldwide Has Plenty of Room to Grow

    In this article, let's take a look at CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW), a $10.64 billion market cap company that is a global provider of multimodal transportation and logistics solutions and has a network of more than 230 offices in North America, South America, Europe and Asia.


    Business model

      


  • T Rowe Price's Top Stakes for the Third Quarter

    In recent days hedge funds have been filing form 13-F, which is a quarterly report of equity holdings by filed institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in equity assets under management, as required by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In this article, let´s concentrate in one particular hedge fund and try to see the principal holdings in its portfolio. I will look into T Rowe Price Associates Inc.


    Recently, the fund reported its equity portfolio ended September. The total value of the portfolio amounted to $457.5 billion, down from $461.6 million disclosed at the end of the previous quarter. Consequently, the fund's equity market change value was negative 4.1 million in the last quarter. The filing revealed that at the end of September, the fund added 88 new positions to its equity portfolio and sold out 73 positions. The top ten portfolio holdings as of the end of the quarter represented 12.09%. The largest changes from previous 13-F´s fillings are in the Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors.

      


  • Market Valuations and Expected Returns – December 4, 2014

    In January 2014, the stock market benchmark S&P 500 lost 3.36% after an excellent 2013. The enthusiasm came back as the market gained 4.31% over February. In March, it was essentially flat. In April, it was about even for the whole month. In May, the market gained 2.1% and in June, the S&P 500 went up 1.91%. In July, the market went down by 1.51%. However, the market gained 3.77% over August, which was the second-biggest monthly gain since 2014. Throughout October, the market benchmark S&P 500 earned 2.32% after the decline of 1.55% in September. In November, the market went up by 2.45%.


    Despite S&P 500 went down by 1.32% on the first day of October, Billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC on Thursday he bought stocks in Wednesday's big selloff. Buffett said he likes to buy stocks when they go down, not when they go up. “The more goes down, the more I like to buy.” He said he buys businesses that he thinks will be good for the next 50 years-such as the deal to buy the nation's largest privately held car dealership group, Van Tuyl Group.

      


  • John Hussman Purchases 36 New Stocks in Q3 2014

    John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio) is the president of Hussman Strategic Advisors, an advisory firm that manages the Hussman Funds. He manages the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund and the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund, which invests primarily in U.S. Treasury and government agency securities.

    Every week, the investor publishes a commentary on the market that is widely read by money managers and individual investors alike. Hussman has written about a variety of topics, from monetary policy to market valuation.  


  • Caterpillar's Acquisitions and International Expansion

    In this article let's take a look at Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world's largest producer of earthmoving equipment and a big maker of electric power generators and engines used in petroleum markets and mining equipment.


    Acquisitions and international markets

      


  • Market Valuations and Expected Returns – November 11, 2014

    In January 2014, the S&P 500 lost 3.36% after an excellent 2013. The enthusiasm came back as the market gained 4.31% over February. In March, it was essentially flat. In April, it was about even for the whole month. In May, the market gained 2.1% and in June, the S&P 500 went up 1.91%. In July, the market went down by 1.51%. However, the market gained 3.77% over August, which was the second-biggest monthly gain since 2014. Throughout October, the market benchmark S&P 500 earned 2.32% after the decline of 1.55% in September.


    Despite S&P 500 declining 1.32% on the first day of October, billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC on Thursday he bought stocks in Wednesday's big selloff. Buffett said he likes to buy stocks when they go down, not when they go up. “The more it goes down, the more I like to buy.” He said he buys businesses that he thinks will be good for the next 50 years, such as the deal to buy the nation's largest privately held car dealership group, Van Tuyl Group.

      


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