John Keeley

John Keeley

Last Update: 2014-11-14

Number of Stocks: 390
Number of New Stocks: 15

Total Value: $4,914 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 5%

Countries: USA
Details: Top Buys | Top Sales | Top Holdings  Embed:

John Keeley Watch

  • John Keeley Alternative Value Fund Q4 2014 Commentary

    In the fourth calendar quarter of 2014, the KEELEY Alternative Value Fund (KALVX) fell 2.71 percent compared to a 6.09 percent increase for the Russell 2500 Value Index and a 4.93 percent rise in the S&P 500 Index. For the year ending December 31st, 2014 the Fund declined 8.15 percent compared to a 13.69 percent increase by the S&P 500 Index and a 7.11 percent rise by the Russell 2500 Value Index. Although equities rebounded from a challenging third quarter, a number of the issues that facilitated much of the recent volatility continue to exist. The volatility in the price of oil garnered the majority of the attention here in the U.S. although growing concerns about the efcacy of global growth deepened toward the end of the year. Global deationary pressures have become the heart of these concerns and although the European Central Bank (ECB) has communicated their desire to consider Quantitative Easing (QE), it is difficult to project its effectiveness given the structural reforms needed at a local level. Despite the strong bounce in equities during the quarter, and especially in small caps which lagged for much of the year, broadly speaking, investors continued to rotate toward more defensive sectors. In the fourth quarter, the top performing sectors in the Russell 2500 Value Index were traditional safe havens such as utilities, health care, and consumer staples. The Fund trailed the Russell 2500 Value Index during the quarter due in large part to an overweight position in the lagging energy sector and poor stock selection in the nancial sector by the long side of the portfolio. Holdings in the nancial sector were negatively impacted by our lack of interest rate sensitive positions, as REITs did exceptionally well during the quarter. Our lack of REIT exposure is a consistent part of our process as we believe those types of companies do not possess the catalyst / corporate restructuring characteristics that we seek within our investment philosophy. As we mentioned earlier, our overweight position in energy had a negative impact on the portfolio. After making a positive contribution for much of 2014, our holdings succumbed to the pressure from the abrupt price decline in the commodity. Sub-advisor Broadmark Asset Management had difculty hedging the portfolio in such a volatile environment with the market never really nding a consistent direction. Some of their hedges were ill-timed, and the subsequent removal of those hedges were also poorly timed which collectively detracted from the portfolio’s results during the quarter.


    During the fall pullback, Broadmark was able to hedge some of that decline, but the rise in volatility in December was a challenge to performance as their risk-averse approach can at times inhibit performance.

      


  • John Keeley's Keeley Funds Annual Shareholder Letter 2014

    Dear Fellow Shareholders,


    An accommodative Ben Bernanke in his last year as Fed Chief and market acceptance of quantitative easing (i.e. tapering) drove the strong market performance in 2013. For 2014, this Fed focus continued to heavily influence the market action; however, tapering concerns were replaced with the possibility of earlier rate hikes. There were glimmers of hope that the market would return its focus to companies’ fundamentals with the strengthening US economy, but macroeconomic forces again took center stage. As Janet Yellen became Fed Chair, perception of a possible change in rate policy plus high valuations, especially in small caps, led to a weak January. Reassurances by Yellen that the Fed would adjust accordingly if the economy slowed led to solid performance in the first and second quarters of 2014. Even the political situation in Ukraine presented itself only as a temporary stumble, with the market marching onward as the US economic data continued to strengthen after the terrible winter weather.

      


  • Weekly 3-Year Low Highlights: RDS.B, GSK, WPZ, CLR

    According to GuruFocus list of 3-year lows; Royal Dutch Shell PLC, GlaxoSmithKline PLC, Williams Partners LP, and Continental Resources Inc have all reached their 3-year lows.


    Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.B) Reached $63.77

      


  • CenturyLink Shocked Investors, But Should They Stay Alert Now?

    In a previous article, we analyzed quantitative aspects of CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL), a $21.9 billion market cap company that has grown via acquisitions to become the third-largest telecom provider in the U.S., offering services to both residential and business customers.


    Biggest decline

      


  • Weekly CEO Buys Highlight: SFXE, JMP, JONE, TEP, BCEI

    According to GuruFocus Insider Data, these are the largest CEO buys during the past week. The overall trend of CEOs is illustrated in the chart below:


    SFX Entertainment Inc (SFXE): CEO and Chairman of the Board, 10% Owner Robert F X Sillerman bought 1,774,382 shares

      


  • If You Don't Care About a Company's Story, You Don't Care About What Happens to Your Money

    Michael Price (Trades, Portfolio), manager of MFP Investors, likes to buy his stocks from companies that are sailing on rough waters. He does not go for the nice and comfortable stocks that are a guaranteed win – well, as guaranteed as you can get in the market; we all know nothing is promised when it comes to investing – instead, he looks at companies that are selling their shares 30-40% below their estimated intrinsic value.


    "We know it's easy to get swept away in a growth market. But I've been in this business more than 25 years, and I've watched investors figure out a way to justify incredible multiples, only to see valuations collapse back to the underlying worth of the company. We are value investors, and, at these prices, we aren't going to buy names like Microsoft," he said.

      


  • Weekly CEO Buys Highlight: APD, SFXE, HTZ, OPK, TRUE

    According to GuruFocus Insider Data, these are the largest CEO buys during the past week. The overall trend of CEOs is illustrated in the chart below:


    Air Products & Chemicals Inc (APD): Chairman, President and CEO Seifi Ghasemi Bought 53,000 Shares

      


  • Wendy's Absolute and Relative Valuation

    In this article, let's take a look at Wendy's Co (WEN), a $3.12 billion market cap company, which is one of the largest fast food restaurants.


    Revenues, margins and profitability

      


  • KEELEY Small Cap Value Fund Comments on Core-Mark Holding Co Inc

    Core-Mark Holdings Company, Inc. (CORE) was the Fund's top performing position in the third quarter after rising over 16 percent and adding 19 basis points of return to the Fund. The convenience store retailer continued its impressive performance and is now our top performing position in 2014, rising over 39 percent year-to-date. Despite sluggish foot traffic for a number of retailers, Core-Mark was able to increase food sales over the past quarter and they were especially pleased with growth in their higher margin areas such as fresh foods.

    From John Keeley (Trades, Portfolio)’s KEELEY Small Cap Value Fund Q3 2014 Commentary.  


  • KEELEY Small Cap Value Fund Comments on Manitowoc Co Inc

    Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW) was the second largest detractor during the quarter after falling over 28 percent and costing the portfolio 32 basis points of return. Shares of the capital goods manufacturer fell sharply in July after cutting its 2014 forecasts for crane sales and foodservice operating margins. The company now anticipates that revenue in its crane-making division will be flat or slightly negative in 2014. We continue to see a restructuring opportunity in Manitowoc, with a potential break-up of their industrial crane-making and foodservice segments.

    From John Keeley (Trades, Portfolio)’s KEELEY Small Cap Value Fund Q3 2014 Commentary.  


  • KEELEY Small Cap Value Fund Comments on Sanchez Energy

    Sanchez Energy (SN) proved to be the largest detractor during the quarter, falling over 30 percent and costing the Fund 40 basis points of performance. Although the company issued $300 million in senior notes during the quarter for an acquisition that doubled its Eagle Ford Shale acreage, there appeared to be no fundamental reason for the decline. We remain committed to the sector and continue to believe our companies are well positioned for the secular growth opportunities that we think lie ahead.

    From John Keeley (Trades, Portfolio)’s KEELEY Small Cap Value Fund Q3 2014 Commentary.  


  • John Keeley’s KEELEY All Cap Value Fund Q3 2014 Commentary

    In the third calendar quarter of 2014, the KEELEY All Cap Value Fund (KACVX) fell 4.74 percent compared to a 0.87 percent decline for the Russell 3000 Value Index. After a lengthy hiatus, volatility returned to the markets in the third quarter. The weakness was especially evident in small cap stocks, where the divergence between small and large-cap stocks was substantial. The S&P 500 Index posted a positive return in the third quarter, climbing just over 1 percent compared to the broad sell-off that occurred in small and mid-cap companies. Although the market capitalization of the portfolio has moved higher in recent years, it remains substantially below our benchmark as we continue to find attractive opportunities in small and mid-cap companies. Heightened geopolitical risks were the primary culprit for the renewed volatility, as uncertainty in foreign markets added to global growth concerns and pressured investors to shun risk. Fortunately, economic news on the domestic front was more positive. Better export growth, improving housing activity, and continued low interest rates has allowed the economy to recover from the negative effects of the harsh weather early in the year. However, subpar projections for long term GDP growth remain a signficant hurdle and puts further pressure on a fragile consumer to pick up the slack. From sector perspective the quarter was mixed, with five of ten economic sectors in the Russell 3000 Value Index producing negative returns. Stock selection within the financial and industrials sectors was the key factors in our relative underperformance during the quarter. The Fund was also negatively impacted by an overweight position to energy, which was the worst performing sector in our benchmark.


    Civeo Corp. (CVEO) was the Fund's largest detractor during the quarter after shares fell sharply in September when the company announced that electing REIT status would not be preferable and simultaneously announced a rather large reduction in Canadian guidance for Q4 2014 and 2015 due to project deferrals. The reduction in earnings guidance, while never pleasant, is understandable, but the decision to not seek a REIT election was both disappointing and confusing. Frankly, we've not seen a case where the reason a company gets spun off is so quickly abandoned. Activist investors have become involved seeking, among other things, the resignation of the CEO. Nonetheless, the failure to seek a REIT election was a sufficient blow relative to our investment thesis that we elected to sell the stock.

      


  • KEELEY All Cap Value Fund Comments on BancorpSouth Inc

    BancorpSouth (BXS) fell over 18 percent and cost the portfolio 31 basis points of performance. The company announced plans to delay several announced acquisitions as increased scrutiny by the Federal Reserve and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) concerning BSA/AML (Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering) is ongoing and the reviews will need to be completed before the acquisitions are allowed to proceed. This caused earnings reductions due to delayed deal accretion. We have seen this issue pop up at several other institutions and while it's unfortunate, we feel this is not a specific issue germane to only BXS but rather the result of increased scrutiny from Washington DC regulators concerned with money laundering. Management is complying with all policy and procedural change requests and hopes to have the matter resolved in the near future.

    From John Keeley (Trades, Portfolio)’s KEELEY All Cap Value Fund Q3 2014 Commentary.  


  • KEELEY All Cap Value Fund Comments on Genworth Financial Inc

    Genworth (GNW) declined over 24 percent and cost the Fund 38 basis points of performance during the quarter. The company announced a sizeable addition to reserves for purposes of covering potential loss exposure to long-term care insurance provided to its earliest customers. This was not an unknown risk to us as we did factor this into our thinking when we established our position. However, while the reserve build was in-line with our projections, it was still a negative surprise to the street. Our view with respect to long-term care is that States will allow for premium increases, sometimes sizeable, as GNW (and others providing this insurance) are last line defenses to patients who would otherwise likely end up in Medicaid and exacerbate state budget situations. Unfortunately, a mismatch in timing occurs as claims rise first, then reserves are lifted followed by a request for premium increases. Ultimately, we feel GNW is very cheap and is in a good position to seek premium relief even as the company continues to restructure its business in both long-term care and mortgage insurance.

    From John Keeley (Trades, Portfolio)’s KEELEY All Cap Value Fund Q3 2014 Commentary.  


  • KEELEY All Cap Value Fund Comments on Civeo Corp

    Civeo Corp. (CVEO) was the Fund's largest detractor during the quarter after shares fell sharply in September when the company announced that electing REIT status would not be preferable and simultaneously announced a rather large reduction in Canadian guidance for Q4 2014 and 2015 due to project deferrals. The reduction in earnings guidance, while never pleasant, is understandable, but the decision to not seek a REIT election was both disappointing and confusing. Frankly, we've not seen a case where the reason a company gets spun off is so quickly abandoned. Activist investors have become involved seeking, among other things, the resignation of the CEO. Nonetheless, the failure to seek a REIT election was a sufficient blow relative to our investment thesis that we elected to sell the stock.

    From John Keeley (Trades, Portfolio)’s KEELEY All Cap Value Fund Q3 2014 Commentary.  


  • John Keeley's KEELEY All Cap Value Fund Q3 2014 Commentary

    In the third calendar quarter of 2014, the KEELEY All Cap Value Fund (KACVX) fell 4.74 percent compared to a 0.87 percent decline for the Russell 3000 Value Index. After a lengthy hiatus, volatility returned to the markets in the third quarter. The weakness was especially evident in small cap stocks, where the divergence between small and large-cap stocks was substantial. The S&P 500 Index posted a positive return in the third quarter, climbing just over 1 percent compared to the broad sell-off that occurred in small and mid-cap companies. Although the market capitalization of the portfolio has moved higher in recent years, it remains substantially below our benchmark as we continue to find attractive opportunities in small and mid-cap companies. Heightened geopolitical risks were the primary culprit for the renewed volatility, as uncertainty in foreign markets added to global growth concerns and pressured investors to shun risk. Fortunately, economic news on the domestic front was more positive. Better export growth, improving housing activity, and continued low interest rates has allowed the economy to recover from the negative effects of the harsh weather early in the year. However, subpar projections for long term GDP growth remain a signficant hurdle and puts further pressure on a fragile consumer to pick up the slack. From sector perspective the quarter was mixed, with five of ten economic sectors in the Russell 3000 Value Index producing negative returns. Stock selection within the financial and industrials sectors was the key factors in our relative underperformance during the quarter. The Fund was also negatively impacted by an overweight position to energy, which was the worst performing sector in our benchmark.


    Civeo Corp. (CVEO) was the Fund's largest detractor during the quarter after shares fell sharply in September when the company announced that electing REIT status would not be preferable and simultaneously announced a rather large reduction in Canadian guidance for Q4 2014 and 2015 due to project deferrals. The reduction in earnings guidance, while never pleasant, is understandable, but the decision to not seek a REIT election was both disappointing and confusing. Frankly, we've not seen a case where the reason a company gets spun off is so quickly abandoned. Activist investors have become involved seeking, among other things, the resignation of the CEO. Nonetheless, the failure to seek a REIT election was a sufficient blow relative to our investment thesis that we elected to sell the stock.

      


  • Weekly CEO Buys Highlight: NRP, OPK, GAM, KEY, ARWR

    According to GuruFocus Insider Data, these are the largest CEO buys during the past week. The overall trend of CEOs is illustrated in the chart below:


    Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP): Chairman and CEO, 10% Owner Corbin J Jr Robertson Bought 270,383 Shares

      


  • Stage Stores' CEO Invests in Company Stock

    With Halloween coming up, many apparel stores are ramping up for the expected demand for seasonal costumes; after all, an estimated 158 million people participated in Halloween activities last year, and it is fair to assume that most, if not all, were in costume. Not all apparel stores sell Halloween costumes or items that can be used by customers to make their own costumes, of course, but some, like Stage Stores (SSI), a department store company that operates 850 stores under different names in 40 states, do.


    It may have been in anticipation of the Halloween season that Stage Stores’ president and CEO, Michael L. Glazer, purchased 10,000 shares of company stock Tuesday, increasing his total holdings in the company to 284,184 shares. At $16.23 per share, the transaction cost $163,200. The price is a little more than half the stock’s high-water mark of $28.07 nearly 17 months ago.

      


  • Steve Cohen Increases Stake in C&J Energy Services

    Steve Cohen of Point72 Asset Management bought more than 740,000 shares of C&J Energy Services (CJES) on Sept. 12, increasing his stake in the company to 6.5 percent, according to GuruFocus’ Real Time Picks.


    Point72 has held the stock in C&J Energy since the fourth quarter of 2011. The firm is a revamp of Cohen’s embattled SAC Capital Advisors, which pled guilty to insider trading charges earlier this year.

      


  • Hasbro: I Insist on This Funny Stock

    In this article, let´s see one of the most important financial ratios applying to stockholders, the best measure of performance for a firm's management: the Return on Equity (ROE), and we are going to analyze it in the case Hasbro Inc. (HAS)


    ROE is calculated as net income applicable to common shares divided by the average book value of common equity: ROE = Net Income / Av. Book Value

      


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