John Rogers

Last Update: 07-08-2016

Number of Stocks: 194
Number of New Stocks: 16

Total Value: $8,301 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 9%

Countries: USA
Details: Top Buys | Top Sales | Top Holdings  Embed:

John Rogers Watch

  • John Rogers' Ariel Fund June Commentary

    Obviously, the Brexit vote was the big event this month, and what a short, strange trip it has been. On June 23rd, the United Kingdom’s citizens voted whether to Remain a part of the European Union (Bremain) or to Leave it (Brexit). This referendum was born in 2013, when Prime Minister David Cameron promised there would be a stay/go vote if he were re-elected. At the time, low rumblings came from some who were dissatisfied with the E.U.; Cameron firmly believed in the Union. He considered the referendum low risk—he was wrong. Leading up to the vote, the British political betting markets showed an 88% chance Bremain would win; public opinion polls leaned that way but less firmly. In the end, more than 30 million voters (greater than 70% of eligible voters) voted to leave the E.U. by a 52% to 48% margin. Experts were stunned, the media scrambled, and the British pound fell -10.67% (versus the dollar) in just two days. Cameron announced he would resign.

      


  • John Rogers Continues to Buy Morgan Stanley, Ansys

    John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio) is the founder of Ariel Investment LLC, which he started in 1983. In both fourth quarter 2015 and first quarter 2016 the guru bought shares in the following stocks:


    HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC)

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Chesapeake Energy Corp

    Also, natural gas explorer Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) declined -20.65% as clouds continued to hang over the stock. The price of natural gas has declined nearly 40% over the past 12 months, and Chesapeake has become a favorite for short sellers as short interest has nearly quadrupled in just more than six months. Declines in prices for both natural gas and crude oil have brought increased scrutiny to Chesapeake debt level. We continue to own the stock.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Focus Fund second quarter 2016 commentary.   


  • John Rogers Comments on Lockheed Martin Corp

    Other holdings slid in the volatile three-month period. Defense and aeronautics company Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) fell -7.68%, despite an earnings beat. Specifically, the company announced earnings of $2.74 per share; the Wall Street estimate had been $2.50. Revenues were actually a bit short of expectations, so the market took the stock down a bit, given its relatively full valuation. We continue to see it as a very high-quality enterprise with a strong competitive advantage.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Focus Fund second quarter 2016 commentary.   


  • John Rogers Comments on Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    We continue to see the company as having and nicely defending a good competitive position. In addition, investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) rose +11.42%, as it continued to be in a good spot. It did not have any particularly surprising news, but as the market advanced, big financial firms strongly outperformed. The market continues to see Goldman as one of the top leaders in the broad industry, and we agree with that sentiment.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Focus Fund second quarter 2016 commentary.   


  • John Rogers Comments on Stanley Black & Decker

    Some of our holdings had good returns for the quarter. Toolmaker Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.(NYSE:SWK) jumped +10.92% due to strong earnings. The market expected the company to earn $0.95 per share, while it managed to make $1.07. Revenues, gross margins and operating margins all advanced. We continue to see the company as having and nicely defending a good competitive position.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Focus Fund second quarter 2016 commentary.   


  • John Rogers Buys DeVry, American Express

    John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio) is the founder of Ariel Investment LLC, which he started in 1983. During the first quarter he bought shares in the following stocks:


    The guru increased his stake in Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS) by 59.09% with an impact of 0.74% on the portfolio.

      


  • John Rogers Exits Blount International in 1st Quarter

    The largest first-quarter transactions made by John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio), founder of Ariel Investment LLC, were not acquisitions but sales of stakes and portions of stakes in his portfolio. Here is a rundown of some of his largest deals.


    Rogers sold his 7,536,792-share stake in Blount International Inc. (NYSE:BLT), a Portland, Oregon-based maker of replacement parts, equipment and accessories for chain saws and other outdoor products, for an average price of $9.59 per share. The divestiture had a -0.89% impact on Rogers’ portfolio.

      


  • John Rogers Commentary for Month Ended May 31, 2016

    We traditionally examine domestic market leadership near the midpoint of the year. At this point last year, growth stocks were crushing value equities as optimism dominated. This year the mood has shifted significantly, highlighted by value stocks’ leadership. Here are the 12 Russell indexes we use to assess this sentiment:


    Eleven of these indexes are up in 2016; only the Russell 2000 Growth Index is down. Value stocks have turned the table and are outperforming growth stocks. The four top returns all come from value indexes; the four worst returns come from growth benchmarks. Turning to market cap differences, small caps are mainly lagging large caps.

      


  • Stocks Fall to 5-Year Lows

    According to GuruFocus' list, these guru stocks have reached their five-year lows: Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN), Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) and DeVry Education Group Inc. (NYSE:DV).


    Bed Bath & Beyond reaches $45.57

      


  • Jim Chanos Acquires Stake in KKR & Co.

    Guru Jim Chanos (Trades, Portfolio) purchased a 326,958-share stake in KKR & Co. LP (NYSE:KKR) in the first quarter.


    KKR & Co. has a market cap of $5.66 billion, an enterprise value of $29.72 billion, a P/B ratio of 1.08 and a dividend yield of 8.62.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on STRATTEC Security Corp

    STRATTEC Security Corp. (NASDAQ:STRT) designs, manufactures and sells automotive access control products. It has a clean balance sheet and trades near tangible book value. Additionally, advancement in automated cars should provide a tailwind, driving demand for STRATTEC products. Lastly, West Marine, Inc. (WMAR) operates retail stores for boating supplies and accessories. The company trades at a sizable discount to book value despite being profitable, and has a clean balance sheet with no debt and excess cash. West Marine is positioned to take advantage of an ongoing recovery in the boating industry.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' first quarter 2016 Ariel Discovery Fund Commentary.   


  • John Rogers Comments on Real Industry Inc.

    Real Industry Inc. (NASDAQ:RELY) is a holding company based in Southern California backed by notable investors, including Sam Zell. With over $800 million in federal net operating losses (NOLs), management plans to acquire cash generating, stand-alone businesses that can utilize the NOL asset. Its first major purchase was Real Alloy, an aluminum recycling company. We believe the value of Real Alloy alone is more than the current market capitalization of Real Industry.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' first quarter 2016 Ariel Discovery Fund Commentary.   


  • John Rogers Comments on Rentech Inc.

    Also, clean energy solutions provider Rentech, Inc. (NASDAQ:RTK) dropped -36.93% amidst disappointing short-term earnings. Specifically, the company posted a loss of $0.48 after analysts predicted a loss of $0.08. As long-term owners of the stock, we know the business can be relatively lumpy and are comfortable with it. We continue to believe the market misunderstands the company, it structure and its promise.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' first quarter 2016 Ariel Discovery Fund Commentary.   


  • John Rogers Comments on Century Casinos Inc.

    Other holdings slid in the short term. Gaming firm Century Casinos, Inc. (NASDAQ:CNTY) slid -20.82% after a weak earnings report. Specifically, the company reported $0.03 in earnings per share, missing consensus estimates of $0.11—largely due to soft revenues. We continue to think the stock trades at a deep discount to its intrinsic worth and believe its long-term trajectory will surpass Wall Street expectations.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' first quarter 2016 Ariel Discovery Fund Commentary.   


  • John Rogers Comments on Contango Oil & Gas Co.

    In addition, natural resources exploration and production company Contango Oil & Gas Co. (MCF) gained +83.93% as the price of oil recovered during the quarter. There was no other significant news beyond oil’s rebound—which was good news enough for Contango. Crude oil started 2016 at close to $37 per barrel, sank to a low of $26 in mid-February, then marched back above $40 before settling back a bit. Although the commodity essentially was flat, the rebound showed its year-and-a-half long slide has perhaps found a floor. We continue to think Contango has unrecognized value.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' first quarter 2016 Ariel Discovery Fund Commentary.   


  • John Rogers Comments on ORBCOMM Inc.

    Machine-to-machine communications company ORBCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:ORBC) continued the nice run it began in late 2015, rising +39.92%. There was not much news in 2016, but as we mentioned in late 2015, the unfolding story was only starting to take hold and should have long legs in our view. With its full satellite “constellation” launched and operational, the company’s once-considerable capital expenditures will dwindle and profits can now fall to the bottom line. We have been selling into strength but still own the stock.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' first quarter 2016 Ariel Discovery Fund Commentary.   


  • John Rogers' 1st Quarter 2016 Ariel Discovery Fund Commentary

    The first quarter of 2016 was flat in some places and down slightly in others, but we doubt most investors remember it that way. The carnage in January was harsh, and daily volatility has been high, so many likely think of it as a rough three months. Yet the last half of the quarter largely recouped the losses from the first half. Among the three broad indexes tracking our asset classes, one was up a small amount and the other two were down. U.S. large caps were up a small amount. On the other hand, domestic small caps slipped a bit and foreign stocks were down. When U.S. large caps are up while U.S. small caps and foreign stocks retreat, we generally think it says more about sentiment than economics. That is, U.S. large caps are seen as providing stability whereas small caps and foreign stocks are seen as more risky. The discrepancy between domestic value and growth indexes says the same. That is, growth indexes from the large-, mid-, and small- cap universe ranged from less than +1% up to down nearly -5%, while the value counterparts were up more than +1% to +4%. For more than a year investor sentiment has gone up and down without a strong trend.


    This quarter, Ariel Discovery Fund rose +2.20%, ahead of the Russell 2000 Value Index’s +1.70% gain, as well as the +1.35% rise of the S&P 500 Index.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Bristow Group Inc.

    Also, helicopter operator Bristow Group Inc. (NYSE:BRS) fell -26.60% on two pieces of news: a helicopter crash and a dividend cut. Helicopter crashes are quite rare and very unfortunate, but they do occur. Turning to the dividend cut, some saw it as cause for worry, but we thought it represented prudent balance sheet management. Wall Street fears that oil companies will not only cut exploration but also production—which would hurt Bristow. While exploration cuts are realistic possibilities; we think production cuts are quite unlikely. The stock’s volatility has created buying opportunities.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on JLL

    Other holdings slid in the short term. Real estate expert JLL (NYSE:JLL) drifted -26.61% after a soft earnings report. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.53, below the consensus estimate of $4.78. Currency had the biggest negative impact, although revenues were soft even though they were up year-over-year. Management delivered a steady outlook and said leasing volumes are improving. We are quite content to own this powerhouse through the ups and downs of the business cycle.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Mattel Inc.

    In addition, toymaker Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) jumped +25.27% on news of its merger discussions with Hasbro, Inc. (NASDAQ:HAS). Nothing has happened to date, and nothing may happen. We find the news encouraging because it shows strategic flexibility. We think the company will thrive with or without a merger, and that it can continue to adapt as the digital entertainment world grows.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Brady Corp

    Some of our holdings had strong returns for the quarter. Identification solutions specialist Brady Corp. (NYSE:BRC) surged +17.87% after a very strong earnings report. The company posted earnings per share of $ 0.30, well above the $0.23 consensus. Revenues were up slightly before currency effects, with operating margins improving a great deal. Moreover, management increased earnings guidance by roughly 10%. The company continues to focus on its growing circle of competence, a strategy we applaud.

      


  • John Rogers' 1st Quarter 2016 Ariel Fund Commentary

    The first quarter of 2016 was flat in some places and down slightly in others, but we doubt most investors remember it that way. The carnage in January was harsh, and daily volatility has been high, so many likely think of it as a rough three months. Yet the last half of the quarter largely recouped the losses from the first half. Among the three broad indexes tracking our asset classes, one was up a small amount and the other two were down. U.S. large caps were up a small amount. On the other hand, domestic small caps slipped a bit and foreign stocks were down. When U.S. large caps are up while U.S. small caps and foreign stocks retreat, we generally think it says more about sentiment than economics. That is, U.S. large caps are seen as providing stability whereas small caps and foreign stocks are seen as more risky. The discrepancy between domestic value and growth indexes says the same. That is, growth indexes from the large-, mid-, and small- cap universe ranged from less than +1% up to down nearly -5%, while the value counterparts were up more than +1% to +4%. For more than a year investor sentiment has gone up and down without a strong trend.

      


  • Gilead, Fossil Among Stocks Trading Below Lynch Earnings Line

    Former Magellan fund manager Peter Lynch devised a method of determining whether stocks are over or undervalued by equating $1 in earnings with $15 in stock price. The earnings line was introduced in his best-selling book “One Up on Wall Street.”


    A graph comparing the Peter Lynch earnings line with the actual stock price can be found on the summary pages of each stock on GuruFocus. The Peter Lynch Screen is also available to automatically search for high-performing undervalued stocks. Five of these picks are listed below.

      


  • Ariel Investments Discusses Banks

    Charles Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments likes banks because they seem inexpensive and had only short-term problems. He thinks Citigroup (NYSE:C) is too difficult to analyze, but JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) is attractive.
      


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