John Rogers

Last Update: 2014-08-14

Number of Stocks: 188
Number of New Stocks: 13

Total Value: $8,179 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 5%

Countries: USA
Details: Top Buys | Top Sales | Top Holdings  Embed:

John Rogers Watch

  • John Rogers' Ariel Fund July Commentary

    Our May commentary addressed U.S. stock market performance from January to May. As you may recall, returns had been up and down, large and mid caps had trounced small caps, and value had beaten growth. While the returns of Ariel Fund and Ariel Appreciation Fund were quite similar, the disparity between benchmarks made Ariel Fund look solid and Ariel Appreciation Fund appear lethargic. This commentary will focus more attention on assessing performance generally and on the Russell Midcap Value Index in particular.


    Dissecting investment results can be tricky. First and foremost—and this is no secret—strong absolute returns sometimes mask poor relative returns, while low absolute returns can actually be solid in a given market environment. That is, a +10% gain is not astounding in the context of a market that is up more than +32%, as the market was in 2013. By contrast, a –10% loss would have been stellar for an equity portfolio in 2008, when the S&P 500 plummeted –37%.

      


  • This Tobacco Stock Looks Attractive Enough

    In this article let's take a look at an option for investing in the tobacco sector with British American Tobacco plc (BTI), which sells tobacco products in 180 countries. The company holds leadership positions in around 50 of them. Brands like Dunhill, Kent, Pall Mall, and Lucky Strike account for one third of group sales because they are well known and have been gaining share over the past several years.


    Competitive Advantages

      


  • John Rogers' Ariel Fund Q2 2014 Shareholder Letter

    Investing in small- and mid-cap stocks is riskier and more volatile than investing in large-cap stocks. The intrinsic value of the stocks in which the portfolio invests may never be recognized by the broader market. Investing in equity stocks is risky and subject to the volatility of the markets. Ariel Fund often invests a significant portion of its assets in companies within the financial services and consumer discretionary sectors and its performance may suffer if these sectors underperform the overall stock market.


    Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All performance assumes the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains and represents returns of the Investor Class shares. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. For the period ended June 30, 2014, the average annual total returns of Ariel Fund (Investor Class) for the 1-, 5- and 10-year periods were +29.50%, +24.25% and +7.54%, respectively. Ariel Fund’s Investor Class shares had an annual expense ratio of 1.03% for the year ended September 30, 2013. Performance data current to the most recent month-end for Ariel Fund may be obtained by visiting our website, arielinvestments.com.Investing in small- and mid-cap stocks is riskier and more volatile than investing in large-cap stocks. The intrinsic value of the stocks in which the portfolio invests may never be recognized by the broader market. Investing in equity stocks is risky and subject to the volatility of the markets. Ariel Fund often invests a significant portion of its assets in companies within the financial services and consumer discretionary sectors and its performance may suffer if these sectors underperform the overall stock market.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Contango Oil & Gas Co

    Also, natural resources explorer Contango Oil & Gas Co. (MCF) slipped –11.37% after an earnings report that disappointed the Street. Specifically, the company’s first-quarter loss of $10 million was driven by $42 million in dry-hole (a well that produces no commercially viable oil and gas) costs from a Gulf of Mexico well. Investors focused heavily on that unfortunate news—which we see as an unlucky part of the business— rather than on the company’s otherwise solid numbers. We were quite encouraged that the company plans to shift its capital expenditures entirely onshore where dry-hole risks are much lower.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Ariel Fund Second Quarter 2014 Commentary.  


  • John Rogers Comments on Charles River Laboratories Intl Inc

    Preclinical testing firm Charles River Laboratories Intl, Inc. (CRL) dropped –11.30% as mergers and acquisitions ramped up in the health-care sector. Health-care consolidations have been rising, the most prominent being a proposed $100 billion acquisition of Astra-Zeneca by Pfizer Inc. (PFE), and with mergers come the rationalization of research capabilities. The market tends to react swiftly and sharply to such events. We think such reactions are generally overblown, as the effects tend to be more short-term than long-term; as such we think Charles River has become a better bargain lately.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Ariel Fund Second Quarter 2014 Commentary.  


  • John Rogers Comments on CBRE Group Inc

    In addition, global real estate company CBRE Group, Inc. (CBG) jumped +16.81% after a very strong quarterly earnings report. Its adjusted earnings per share were $0.25, $0.08 higher than expectations, on the basis of strong revenue overall and nearly across its units. The market seemed especially pleased that management saw more upside than downside for the rest of 2014.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Ariel Fund Second Quarter 2014 Commentary.  


  • John Rogers Comments on US Silica Holdings Inc

    Industrial sand producer U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. (SLCA) piled up a +45.60% return after a great earnings report. Recent results were solid, but the key takeaway from management’s comments was the comparison of the current environment to that of 2011 and 2012, when business boomed based on heavy demand. All along, we have viewed Silica as a cyclical business, so we expected it to improve along the way; by the same token, we do not think a great environment will persist forever.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Ariel Fund Second Quarter 2014 Commentary.  


  • John Rogers' Ariel Fund Second Quarter 2014 Commentary

    Quarter Ended June 30, 2014


    After a slow start to the year, global equities accelerated in the second quarter of 2014. For the quarter, domestic large caps edged out mid caps and foreign equities—with small caps posting a solid but less dramatic quarterly gain. The pattern from the first quarter continued: a preference for yield-bearing investments and equities with a reputation for steadiness and fundamental strength. For instance, across Russell’s main smaller-cap value indexes (2000, 2500 and Midcap), the two top-performing sectors were utilities and energy. Along the same lines, in smaller- cap stocks value topped core, while growth underperformed. The pattern was not as pronounced abroad, where emerging markets stocks outpaced developed markets—with sagging China being a key exception. We had strong returns this quarter, as Ariel Fund gained +6.42%, beating the Russell 2500 Value Index’s +4.20% advance, as well as the +2.38% rise of the Russell 2000 Value Index.

      


  • John Rogers' Ariel Investments 2nd Quarter 2014 Commentary

    We will come right out and say it: this has been a strange year for the markets so far. In 2014, through mid-April, the S&P 500 Index took a bumpy trip to nowhere—or technically a +0.02% gain. Since then, however, it has returned +7.54%. According to the Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 has also had 16 record closes in the second quarter of 2014, and its volatility has dropped to the lowest level since 2007. At this point in a bull market, you might expect record highs and low volatility to drive unencumbered exuberance, but not this time. On the one hand, the Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment Charts show 61% are bullish on the market and 16% are bearish, with the rest expecting a correction. On the other hand, market pundits continue to detect fear, skepticism and worse in market movements. One global strategist recently told Bloomberg Businessweek: “Classically, the market climbs a wall of worry. Now we’re having a wall of hatred.”


    A look at asset flows suggests what investors are doing, and what it might mean. When we examined 56 Morningstar mutual fund categories and find the biggest inflows in dollar and percentage terms in the first five months of 2014, some fairly clear patterns emerge.

      


  • Ariel Investments' John Rogers Discusses KKR, First American, Dun & Bradstreet



  • John Rogers' Ariel Investment Fund April Commentary

    At Ariel Investments, three qualities connect our various strategies: patience, focus and independent thinking. Our portfolios now stretch from micro-cap to large cap and range from deep value to traditional value to global, but the philosophy behind them inspires similar activity during market dislocations. That is, when stocks fall, whether across markets or within one of our portfolios, our portfolio managers and analysts get extra busy. As vigilant assessors of value, we gather information and crunch numbers to determine whether the price shifts reflect fundamental, long-term changes in what businesses are worth. If we determine gaps between price and value have widened, hence creating better investment opportunities, we will buy more shares of the companies that have been, in our view, unfairly punished.


    In the first four months of 2014 some areas of the market have gained in quite normal amounts. Large caps are up +2.56% at home and +2.31% in developed markets abroad, as measured by the S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE indexes, respectively. Smaller-cap U.S. stocks, however, have had a mixed year, with some small- and mid-cap indexes up and some down; the bellwether small-cap Russell 2000 Index has fallen –2.80%. Moreover, our portfolios in the micro-cap to mid-cap range have had negative returns in the first four months of the year. We think that has created opportunities for our managers, so this month, we wanted to describe the most significant stock purchases in our smaller-cap deep value and traditional value portfolios firm-wide.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings

    We purchased a previous holding in our mid ca p fund, Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (LH). LabCorp maintains a leading market position in an indust ry that continues to show promising growth potential du e to technological advances, aging demographics, health care cost containment, and preventative medicine. LabCorp maintains a solid balance sheet, generates a significant amount of free cash flow and has been returning value to shareholders through share repurchases. The company operates with an experienced management team that is conservative yet willing to take slight risks in order to grow the business long-term.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on International Game Technology

    Also, gaming manufacturer International Game Technology (IGT) returned –22.00% after a subpar earnings report. Its revenue and earnings per share both slid below consensus estimates. Specifically, revenues were 2% lower than Wall Street expected, while the (adjusted) EPS of $0.25 did not meet the $0.30 forecast. The miss came from weak regional gaming trends and higher-than-expected operating expenses. We think operating issues can be corrected and believe management is focused on the issue. In the meantime, we see light business as temporary and industry-wide— beyond IGT's control. We would be more concerned if the short-term results stemming fr om lost market share, for instance. Although there have been headwinds for this company, we remain optimistic over the long term.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Coach Inc.

    A few of our holdings struggled at quarter end. Specialty retailing Coach, Inc. (COH) de clined –10.91% after missing expectations. The company reported EPS of $1.06 after making $1.23 per share last year. Consensus had been $1.11. The main culprit was lower traffic in retail stores. It has been a very difficult winter for many retailers, but for Coach the more important issue is its st yle turnaround. Stuart Vevers, the new creative director, has his first complete line appearing this spring and hitting stores next fall. As long- term investors, a six-month waiting period is not difficult, but obviously, Wall Street is less patient than we are. We believe the company will emerge with its brand largely intact, new products to captivate customers and better financial results to follow.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

    In addition, scientific research specialist Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) returned +8.12% after a very solid earnings report. Its revenue was $3.5 billion, up 6% over the previous period, and its earnings per share was $1.43, significantly above the $1.37 cons ensus estimate. Its forecast for 2014 was even more positive : full-year revenue guidance was in the $16 billion-plus ra nge, smashing the $13 billion consensus estimate, and the low end of its EPS guidance was more than $0.40 higher than Wall Street's best guess. Our strategy with Thermo Fisher has been to look beyond the gloom and doom that has cast a dark cloud over the whole sector to see the potential for a bright future.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on JLL Inc.

    Several of our holdings posted strong returns this quarter. Real estate specialist JLL Inc. (JLL), previously known as Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., surged +15.73% due to a strong earnings report. Specifically, in late January the company reported better-than-expecte d (adjusted) earnings per share (EPS) of $3.33; the Street expected $3.09. Revenues topped forecasts, $1.5 billion rather than $1.3 billion. In addition, the company's operating results were boosted by solid investment sales, facility management services and momentum in leasing revenues. Moreover, management signaled continued improvemen ts across its businesses. The market is still applying a cautiously cyclical set of expectations to this firm, but we believe its gradual growth is more secular in nature.

      


  • Cheap Stocks from John Rogers of Ariel Investments



  • John Rogers' Ariel Appreciation Fund First Quarter 2014 Commentary

    Investing in mid-cap stocks is more risky and more volatile than investing in large cap stocks. The intrinsic value of the stocks in which the portfolio invests may never be recognized by the broader market. Investing in equity stocks is risky and subject to the volatility of the markets. Ariel Appreciation Fund often invests a significant portion of its assets in companies within the financial services and consumer discretionary sectors and its performance may suffer if these sectors underperform the overall stock market.


    Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All performance assumes the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains and represents returns of the Investor Class shares. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. For the period ended March 31, 2014, the average annual total returns of Ariel Appreciation Fund (Investor Class) for the one-, five- and ten-year periods were +25.33%, +28.77% and +8.55%, respectively. The Fund's Investor Class shares had an annual expense ratio of 1.13% for the year ended September 30, 2013. Performance data current to the most recent month-end for Ariel Appreciation Fund may be obtained by visiting our web site, arielinvestments.com.

      


  • Ariel Fund First Quarter 2014 Commentary

    Investing in small and mid-cap stocks is more risky and more volatile than investing in large cap stocks. The intrinsic value of the stocks in which the portfolio invests may never be recognized by the broader market. Investing in equity stocks is risky and subject to the volatility of the markets. Ariel Fund often invests a significant portion of its assets in companies within the financial services and consumer discretionary sectors and its performance may suffer if these sectors underperform the overall stock market.


    Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All performance assumes the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains and represents returns of the Investor Class shares. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. For the period ended March 31, 2014, the average annual total returns of Ariel Fund (Investor Class) for the one-, five- and ten-year periods were +23.74%, +30.25% and +7.37%, respectively. Ariel Fund's Investor Class shares had an annual expense ratio of 1.03% for the year ended September 30, 2013. Performance data current to the most recent month-end for Ariel Fund may be obtained by visiting our web site, arielinvestments.com.

      


  • John Rogers' Ariel Funds March Commentary

    Plenty of people talk about "endpoint sensitivity," but oftentimes they miss half the story. That is, in a data series there are really two endpoints—the last one and the first one. As standardized one-year, three-year, and five-year periods roll along, people focus great attention on the most recent month and tend to forget about the month that "goes away." Making this mistake in 2014 could prove harmful when examining five-year returns.


    Below are some recent returns for Ariel Fund. One reason we have selected our flagship mutual fund for this illustration is because its relative performance recently has been quite stable. Over the five years ended February 28th, 2014, it was the top-performing fund in Morningstar's Mid-Cap Blend category. It remained on top for the five-year period as of March 31* . At first glance, however, its absolute returns look like they changed a lot in one month:

      


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