John Rogers

Last Update: 01-10-2017

Number of Stocks: 185
Number of New Stocks: 8

Total Value: $8,267 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 4%

Countries: USA
Details: Top Buys | Top Sales | Top Holdings  Embed:

John Rogers Watch

  • John Rogers Comments on Contango Oil & Gas Co.

    In addition, natural resources firm Contango Oil & Gas Co. (MCF) dropped -16.50% due to a significant earnings miss. Analysts were expecting the company to lose $0.33 per share, but Contango lost $0.67. Revenues were down significantly versus the previous year, largely due to the slide in the price of oil. Despite the miss, the company has managed to reduce its debt balance to $111 million—a 4% decrease—this year. We think the company is better positioned than most of its peers, and as such believe the stock is positioned to outperform going forward.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on J.M. Smucker Co.

    Other holdings fell back a bit. Jam, peanut butter and coffee company J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE:SJM) retreated -10.64% due to a recent acquisition that has not met expectations. In 2015, the company moved into pet food as a part of its “center of the store” strategy with the purchase of Big Heart Pet Brands. That unit did not deliver the revenues or profits analysts expected. We believe the shortfall is mainly due to pet food cost deflation and a price war from its chief competitors. We think the management team will get things moving in the right direction and are content to own the stock at a cheaper multiple in the meantime.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Zebra Technologies Corp

    Also, thermal printer maker Zebra Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:ZBRA) rose +38.94% due to a strong quarter. After adjusting for a tax benefit, its earnings per share were $1.34, crushing the $1.05 expectation. The company held its flat full year guidance. Wall Street had not previously believed in the company’s turnaround, but is clearly waking up. We think these numbers are just the beginning of the company’s good news.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Kennametal Inc.

    Some of our holdings rose nicely during the quarter. Cutting tools maker Kennametal Inc. (NYSE:KMT) jumped +32.19% as its modernization efforts started to gain traction. To a large extent this means more automation, which increases efficiency and slashes costs. The company is also focusing on its more profitable, large customers and shedding smaller ones. We see these moves as an essential part of making its moat wider and better; we think the financial benefits will be significant and long lasting.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on BOK Financial Corp.

    In the third quarter, we added new firm-wide holding BOK Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:BOKF) to Ariel Appreciation Fund. BOK Financial is a leading bank holding company that provides services to businesses and individuals located in the middle-south. Skilled underwriting capabilities and an experienced management differentiate BOK Financial from its competitors. Recent macroeconomic headwinds in the energy industry caused by depressed oil and natural gas prices have created significant pressure on the stock price. As a result, we see this as an opportunity to own a conservatively managed bank with a geographic niche.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on Viacom Inc.

    In addition, media firm Viacom, Inc. (NASDAQ:VIAB) declined -7.61% amidst its management shuffle. As you may know, the company ousted CEO Philippe Dauman in August and temporarily replaced him with Chief Operations Officer Tom Dooley. In late September, Dooley announced he was resigning, effective mid-November. Amidst the turbulence, the company declared a 50% cut in its quarterly dividend—a move we felt was prudent. Clearly in the short term the news from Viacom is unsettling, but we continue to believe in the company’s assets and competitive positioning long term.

      


  • John Rogers Comments on J.M. Smucker Co.

    Other holdings fell back a bit. Jam, peanut butter and coffee company J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE:SJM) retreated -10.64% due to a recent acquisition that has not met expectations. In 2015, the company moved into pet food as a part of its “center of the store” strategy with the purchase of Big Heart Pet Brands. That unit did not deliver the revenues or profits analysts expected. We believe the shortfall is mainly due to pet food cost deflation and a price war from its chief competitors. We think the management team will get things moving in the right direction and are content to own the stock at a cheaper multiple in the meantime.

      


  • Baron Funds Comments on Rollins Inc.

    Rollins, Inc. (NYSE:ROL) is a leading provider of pest and termite control services for more than two million residential and commercial customers, primarily located in North America. We believe that Rollins operates in an industry with high barriers to entry and a fragmented competitive landscape, and we believe Rollins should be able to consistently increase its market share over time. In North America, Rollins is the number one player in commercial and residential pest control and wildlife control, and the number two player in termite control. Developing a well-regarded national brand requires meaningful investment in sales, marketing, employee training and technology, which smaller players simply cannot afford.


    Pests are a major headache for residential customers, and they can lead to meaningful business issues for commercial customers, like restaurants and hotels. Thus, customers are typically willing to pay for these services, regardless of how the economy is performing. As a result, Rollins has demonstrated impressive operating performance across all market conditions, including positive revenue growth during the 2008 and 2009 recession. Furthermore, Rollins has focused significant effort to improve its retention of employees and customers, which has led recurring revenues to represent approximately 80% of the company’s total.

      


  • Baron Funds Comments on Inovalon Holdings Inc.

    Shares of health care data and analytics vendor, Inovalon Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:INOV), detracted from performance, as its financial results fell short of investor expectations and the company reduced its guidance for the remainder of 2016. Management attributed the shortfall to two issues: price reductions in its retrospective risk adjustment unit, and a margin shortfall stemming from investments designed to drive long-term growth. We are hopeful that the company’s latent earnings power will soon become apparent.

      


  • British American Tobacco Proposes Merger With Reynolds

    British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS)(BTI) presented a merger proposal to Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE:RAI) on Friday with a total offer of $47 billion.


    The London-based tobacco company already owns 42.2% of Reynolds. British American is offering $56.50 per share for the remaining 57.8% of the company, of which $24.13 would be in cash and the remaining $32.37 would be in British American shares. The proposal represents a 20% premium over Reynolds’ closing price on Oct. 20.

      


  • Ariel Fund 3rd Quarter Commentary

    Quarter Ended September 30, 2016

      


  • Ariel Appreciation Fund 3rd Quarter Commentary

    Equity markets shook off the malaise that took hold at the end of the second quarter—remember Brexit?—to post a strong quarter all around. Returns were especially good in domestic small caps and international stocks. While the S&P 500 Index advanced +3.85%; the Russell 2000 Index jumped +9.05%; and the MSCI EAFE Index rose +6.43%. The third quarter was the best period for the MSCI EAFE Index in nearly three years, and the best for the Russell 2000 Index in almost two years. We do not believe much changed to drive this result: we simply think people recognized the economy is sound and interest rates remain low—a good environment for equities. This quarter, Ariel Appreciation Fund rose +7.00%, outperforming the Russell Midcap Value Index’s +4.45% rise, as well as the +4.52% return of the Russell Midcap Index.


    Some of our holdings rose nicely during the quarter. Cutting tools maker Kennametal Inc. (NYSE:KMT) jumped +32.19% as its modernization efforts started to gain traction. To a large extent this means more automation, which increases efficiency and slashes costs. The company is also focusing on its more profitable, large customers and shedding smaller ones. We see these moves as an essential part of making its moat wider and better; we think the financial benefits will be significant and long lasting. Also, asset manager and financial advisory firm

      


  • John Rogers' Ariel Funds Commentary for Month of September

    Equities had strong returns in the third quarter of 2016, and predictably the urge to sell U.S. stocks is rising. One group advances the “take some chips off the table” strategy. After small caps of the Russell 2000 Index leapt +9.05% and the S&P 500 Index’s large caps advanced +3.85% this quarter, they wish to capture gains by going to cash. Others make a valuation argument: the S&P 500 Index has a price/earnings (P/E) ratio approaching 25x, above the long-term average of 16x. From this perspective, equities are expensive and are likely to revert toward the mean. These views are common: more than half of professional investors expect either a bear market or a correction.

      


  • John Rogers Trims Spartan Motors, Gaia

    John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio) is the Founder of Ariel Investment LLC. He manages a portfolio composed of 192 stocks with a total value of $7,965 million. According to GuruFocus Real-Time picks, the most recent trades, done during the third quarter, are the following.


    The investor reduced his stake in Spartan Motors Inc. (NASDAQ:SPAR) by 18.27% with an impact of -0.05% on the portfolio.

      


  • Pier 1 Imports Swallows Poison Pill

    The board of Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE:PIR) announced it had adopted a shareholders’ rights agreement on Tuesday.


    The agreement, sometimes called a poison pill, is designed to keep away unwanted takeovers. However, in this case, the agreement simply does not allow any person or group to acquire ownership of 10% or more of the company’s outstanding common stock.

      


  • Ariel Funds Comments on Harman Intl Industries Inc.

    Also, Harman Intl Industries, Inc. (NYSE:HAR) fell -19.07% in the second quarter, after a disappointing earnings report. The company missed estimates and also lowered its full-year guidance. Results in its professional unit were considerably weaker, down more than 5% from a year earlier. We continue to think the shift toward “infotainment” will turn the brand around.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' second quarter 2016 Ariel Global Fund commentary.   


  • Ariel Funds Comments on Baidu Inc.

    Other holdings experienced a short-term struggle. Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) shares fell -13.48% in the second quarter. Chinese regulators opened an investigation on news that a university student died after using the site to find alternative treatments for cancer. Baidu implemented changes, such as capping the number of ads per page to 30% and establishing a 1 billion yuan fund to fight fraud.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' second quarter 2016 Ariel Global Fund commentary.   


  • Ariel Funds Comments on GlaxoSmithKline plc

    In addition, GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE:GSK) rallied +7.74%1 in the second quarter, after reporting profit growth for the first time since 2013. Glaxo is seeing benefits from its purchase of Novartis’ vaccines unit. Demand for vaccines and new drugs helped offset declines in the sales of blockbuster asthma medication Advair.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' second quarter 2016 Ariel Global Fund commentary.   


  • Ariel Funds Comments on Johnson & Johnson

    Medical giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) rallied +12.66%, due to a strong earnings report. In April the company beat analysts’ estimates and also raised guidance for the year. Earnings were driven by strong sales of drugs like Stelara and Xarelto. At this point pharmaceuticals are the company’s largest business division—ahead of powerhouses such as medical devices and consumer health products. We think the trajectory of the business continues to point upward.

      


  • John Rogers' Ariel Global Fund 2nd Quarter Commentary

    For the second quarter in a row, investors will likely remember the harrowing ride better than the end result. That is, domestic stocks posted solid gains and foreign shares had relatively mild losses. In the meantime, however, there was Brexit. On June 23, 2016 the British people shocked the world by voting for the United Kingdom to exit the European Union—an enormously complex and economically risky decision. As you know, the market hates uncertainty. And so in response, foreign stocks plummeted - 10%, small caps dove -7%, and large caps sank -5%. But once investors fully digested the news, stocks jumped back up—nearly erasing their losses in the U.S. Overseas the short-term damage from Brexit still showed; the financial-heavy value indexes significantly lagged the core and growth indexes. In the end, U.S. value fare outpaced growth stocks for the second quarter in a row—definitively ending a very long run of outperformance from the growth side.

      


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