The recent and ongoing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea, with its saber rattling and flurry of diplomatic activity, has uncovered a lot of confusion about the causes, motives, and ultimate outcome of this crisis, as well as its likely economic and financial consequences.
I cannot predict any of this. I was, however, able to make one high-conviction forecast early on: The crisis would trigger a bubble in experts on Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea. Indeed, the cocktail circuit, which is where people with more opinions than ideas meet to exchange peremptory platitudes, was promptly inundated with a tsunami of ready-made experts in history, Central European affairs, and geopolitical strategy. Continue Reading »