At the recent Value Investing Congress, David updated our view of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), elaborated on our General Motors (GM) and Cigna (CI) theses, and disclosed our short position in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).
Regarding CI, we discussed that it trades at a discount to the HMOs, which as a group trade at low multiples. We then illustrated that CI is a higher-quality business that generates superior and more stable returns on equity than its peer group. With a substantial emphasis on Administrative Services Only business, CI deserves a higher multiple closer to the business process outsourcing companies (such as ADP) than to the HMOs. CI also has a significant and growing Medicare Advantage business and a fast growing international business. Finally, we noted that since the vast majority of its customers are large and mid-sized enterprises, CI has much less exposure to the known risks of Obamacare including health care exchanges. In fact, Obamacare may provide a growth opportunity for the company because it may finally afford CI the opportunity to compete meaningfully in the in the individual segment of the market. Continue Reading »