Switch to:
Video Video Tutorial

COH - Coach Inc Fair Value Calculator

Earnings Per Share : $
  
Default value for Earning per Share (without none-recurring items) is the TTM GAAP earning. Use the information at right side to adjust.
Growth Rate In the Next:
Years : %
  
The number of years in the growth stage, and the average annual growth rate. The default value for the growth rate is the average Earings Per Share (eps) growth rate of the past 10 years. If this growth rate is high than 20% a year, it is set to 20%.
Business Predictability  
Terminal Growth Rate: %
  
After the growth stage, it is more reasonable to set the terminal growth rate at the inflation rate. The terminal growth rate must be smaller than the discount rate to make the calculation converge.
Years of Terminal Growth:
  
The number of years for terminal value calculation. The value after this is considered zero. Default is 10.
Discount Rate:
%
  
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which is about 11%, because investors can always invest passively in an index fund and get an average return. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 10% - 20%.
Tangible Book Value:
$
  
Default Book Value is the tangible book value, which may underestimate or overestimate the real value
Growth Value:
 
  
Cumulative earnings during the growth stage discounted to current using the discount rate.
Terminal Value:
 
  
Cumulative earnings during the terminal stage discounted to current using the discount rate.
= Fair Value:
 
  
Intrinsic Value = Future Earnings at Growth Stage + Terminal Value.
 
Margin Of Safety:
 

Add Notes, Comments or Ask Questions

User Comments

Mocheng
ReplyMocheng - 2 months ago
Stockvaluepicker,I think coach brand got trashed, heard a lot of shoppers cursing at Coach when they bought at a retail store 1 month before and saw the same bags are outlets 30% lowered in price.
Stockvaluepicker
ReplyStockvaluepicker - 2 months ago
Coach, Inc (NYSE: COH, $40) O/S: 278.8m; Market cap: $11.07bn; EV: $10.52bn; P/E: 12; EV/EBITDA: 7
Coach is a luxury goods retailer and has been in the business for > 70 years. Company sells premium leather handbags, footwear, watches and accessories for women (80% of sales), men (10%) and other (10%). Coach sells its products in North America (70% of sales) and internationally (30%) including Japan and China.
Investment thesis:
After its recent free-fall (YTD-28%) due to weak Q3 results (SS sales down -13% q/q in 2Q and -21% q/q in 3Q in NA) and lower guidance, Coach offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity.
1. First, Coach is led by the one of the best management team in retail. 2004-2013, sales grew from $1.3b to $5.0b (CAGR 20%); FCF/share up from $0.99 to $4.10 (CAGR 17%)
2. Coach has strong moat (in terms of emotional attachment with customer); evidenced by ROC of ~35% consistently over the last 10 years.
3. Despite, stiff competition from Michael Kors, Coach achieves gross margins of 70%; best margins in the luxury retail sector
4. Growth prospects are robust as new product line (focused on Men) and geographic expansion (China sales up 25%) working well
5. Huge operating leverage
6. No debt; cash balance of ~$800m
All good, but why the market is punishing the stock/ bear hug?
1. NA sales decline intensified in Q3
2. Guidance lowered (management expects NA sales decline in 2015 also)
3. Dual sales (factory outlet and direct stores) channel might dilute the brand value
4. International sales might drag gross margins as competition intensifies
5. Market has recently seen many retail turnarounds failing (JC Penny)
Argument: Sales decline; management is
- NA gross margins are at (68% to 63%) and International gross margins are at (80%) - effects of foreign currency translation should be noted.
- International expansion should boost sales growth
Valuation
- Huge margin of safety
- Intrinsic value in different scenario
- Bull Case: $74 (upside 84%); Bear Case: $52 (upside 30%); Base case:$62(upside 54%)



Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
Free 7-day Trial
FEEDBACK
Email Hide