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CVX - Chevron Corp Fair Value Calculator

Earnings Per Share : $
  
Default value for Earning per Share is the TTM GAAP earning. Use the information at right side to adjust.
Growth Rate In the Next:
Years : %
  
The number of years in the growth stage, and the average annual growth rate. The default value for the growth rate is the average Earings Per Share (eps) growth rate of the past 10 years. If this growth rate is high than 20% a year, it is set to 20%.
Business Predictability  
Terminal Growth Rate: %
  
After the growth stage, it is more reasonable to set the terminal growth rate at the inflation rate. The terminal growth rate must be smaller than the discount rate to make the calculation converge.
Years of Terminal Growth:
  
The number of years for terminal value calculation. The value after this is considered zero. Default is 10.
Discount Rate:
%
  
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which is about 11%, because investors can always invest passively in an index fund and get an average return. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 10% - 20%.
Tangible Book Value:
$
  
Default Book Value is the tangible book value, which may underestimate or overestimate the real value
Growth Value:
 
  
Cumulative earnings during the growth stage discounted to current using the discount rate.
Terminal Value:
 
  
Cumulative earnings during the terminal stage discounted to current using the discount rate.
= Fair Value:
 
  
Intrinsic Value = Future Earnings at Growth Stage + Terminal Value.
 
Margin Of Safety:
 

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User Comments

Tsll@hotmail.com
ReplyTsll@hotmail.com - 4 months ago
Is Free Cash Flow really very close to Owner Earnings?
A company with 4bn cash from operations could invest 3bn in its own PPE (to grow, not only to "maintain")or acquire another company for 3bn. In the first case, Free Cash Flow is 1bn, in the latter 4bn, a multiple of 4.
(1) Is there a way to quantify the portion of PPE investment that is for growth instead of "maintenance"?
(2) Do you give credit for the "growth" portion of PPE investment or do you use strictly "Free CF = Cash from Operations - CapEx" throughout your calculations (ie your DCF number)?
Many thanks for your help (your website is by far the best that I have seen)!!
Thomas Noritzsch, Wiesbaden (Germany)



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