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Summary of Fair Value Votes (You can vote here)
$62.36
(36 votes; Min: $24; Max: $104.62)  
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COH Vote Details

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UserAskDate VotedFair Value Price on Date Voted% Change
Since Voted
% Change
Relative to SP500
TGuerrero Ask Why 2 weeks ago $25$34.946.93 %2.8 %
kflizza Ask Why 1 month ago $50$34.259.08 %8.57 %
drlee Ask Why 1 month ago $50$34.259.08 %8.31 %
MaBernhard Ask Why 1 month ago $47$35.146.32 %6.17 %
richardgebel Ask Why 2 months ago $102.77$34.737.57 %6.26 %
stitifier Ask Why 2 months ago $50$35.694.68 %3.2 %
esso89 Ask Why 2 months ago $70$40.83-8.5 %-10.43 %
sungstock Ask Why 2 months ago $53$39.99-6.58 %-8.48 %
fallenangel Ask Why 2 months ago $50$39.58-5.61 %-7.61 %
mize30 Ask Why 2 months ago $54$40.44-7.62 %-10.92 %

Latest Votes

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SymbolVoted By Date VotedVoted Fair ValuePricePrice/Value (%)
OGZPY thsk4 hours ago$19$7.4539 %
WMT tyt6 hours ago$100$75.7376 %
SEMI egorstravinsky329@...13 hours ago$30$16.6155 %
SD egorstravinsky329@...13 hours ago$8.66$5.1559 %
CALL jboski@...15 hours ago$6.2$11.98193 %
APWC MichaelBoller16 hours ago$10$2.3924 %
XTER:SWA gurufocus@...16 hours ago€19.27€14.0073 %
XTER:WAC gurufocus@...16 hours ago€14.83€16.47111 %
FRA:IV6B gurufocus@...17 hours ago€59.61€30.1551 %
XTER:BMW gurufocus@...17 hours ago€104.86€89.0685 %

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AAPL 226$625.7$2100.00$0.00$101.3216 %
MSFT 94$41.3$100.00$0.00$45.15109 %
WMT 90$80.9$224.36$0.00$75.7394 %
IBM 85$234.7$500.00$0.00$190.4181 %
WFC 84$52.7$120.00$24.69$51.1897 %
KO 78$39.8$150.00$18.74$41.12103 %
BRK.B 74$133.3$250.00$29.00$135.75102 %
INTC 73$30.3$57.70$12.00$34.94115 %
BAC 58$21.5$50.00$0.00$16.1375 %
AFL 57$84.3$133.18$34.00$60.5572 %

Most Under Priced Stocks

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Symbol# of Votes Avrg Value ($)Max. Value ($)Min. Value ($)PricePrice/Value (%)
ESI 23$76.48$168.00$20.00$8.8912 %
KWK 8$9.84$15.00$4.80$1.3213 %
AAPL 226$625.73$2100.00$0.00$101.3216 %
LMCA 5$232.29$450.45$119.00$49.0621 %
NBG 6$15.33$25.00$4.00$3.4322 %
NUIN 7$8.67$10.00$6.00$2.0524 %
GNI 7$88.88$228.87$12.00$22.2825 %
SFUN 7$46.14$110.00$14.00$11.9426 %
MA 15$286.77$1000.00$37.00$76.4827 %
ARO 9$13.00$24.00$5.00$3.5227 %

Add Notes, Comments or Ask Questions

User Comments

Mocheng
ReplyMocheng - 2 months ago
Stockvaluepicker,I think coach brand got trashed, heard a lot of shoppers cursing at Coach when they bought at a retail store 1 month before and saw the same bags are outlets 30% lowered in price.
Stockvaluepicker
ReplyStockvaluepicker - 2 months ago
Coach, Inc (NYSE: COH, $40) O/S: 278.8m; Market cap: $11.07bn; EV: $10.52bn; P/E: 12; EV/EBITDA: 7
Coach is a luxury goods retailer and has been in the business for > 70 years. Company sells premium leather handbags, footwear, watches and accessories for women (80% of sales), men (10%) and other (10%). Coach sells its products in North America (70% of sales) and internationally (30%) including Japan and China.
Investment thesis:
After its recent free-fall (YTD-28%) due to weak Q3 results (SS sales down -13% q/q in 2Q and -21% q/q in 3Q in NA) and lower guidance, Coach offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity.
1. First, Coach is led by the one of the best management team in retail. 2004-2013, sales grew from $1.3b to $5.0b (CAGR 20%); FCF/share up from $0.99 to $4.10 (CAGR 17%)
2. Coach has strong moat (in terms of emotional attachment with customer); evidenced by ROC of ~35% consistently over the last 10 years.
3. Despite, stiff competition from Michael Kors, Coach achieves gross margins of 70%; best margins in the luxury retail sector
4. Growth prospects are robust as new product line (focused on Men) and geographic expansion (China sales up 25%) working well
5. Huge operating leverage
6. No debt; cash balance of ~$800m
All good, but why the market is punishing the stock/ bear hug?
1. NA sales decline intensified in Q3
2. Guidance lowered (management expects NA sales decline in 2015 also)
3. Dual sales (factory outlet and direct stores) channel might dilute the brand value
4. International sales might drag gross margins as competition intensifies
5. Market has recently seen many retail turnarounds failing (JC Penny)
Argument: Sales decline; management is
- NA gross margins are at (68% to 63%) and International gross margins are at (80%) - effects of foreign currency translation should be noted.
- International expansion should boost sales growth
Valuation
- Huge margin of safety
- Intrinsic value in different scenario
- Bull Case: $74 (upside 84%); Bear Case: $52 (upside 30%); Base case:$62(upside 54%)



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