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Comment for Shiller P/E Ratio: Where Are We with Market Valuations?
Posted by: rjmmd (IP Logged)
Date: January 1, 2014 10:01PM

Can you perform the Schiller P/E Valuation for global stock markets? I would find that very helpful. Thank you!


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Comment for Shiller P/E Ratio: Where Are We with Market Valuations?
Posted by: gurufocus (IP Logged)
Date: January 2, 2014 08:13AM

"Can you perform the Schiller P/E Valuation for global stock markets?" sorry that not enough data is available for Global Market Shiller P/E calculation. But we do have Shiller P/E for individual stocks. Also Global Market valuation here:

[www.gurufocus.com]


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Comment for Shiller P/E Ratio: Where Are We with Market Valuations?
Posted by: jhoninck (IP Logged)
Date: January 5, 2014 03:01AM

has anybody done some backtesting with the shiller PE ?
don't think it yields something profitable and I fear it will have long periods of large drawdowns.


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Comment for Shiller P/E Ratio: Where Are We with Market Valuations?
Posted by: rpostman (IP Logged)
Date: March 3, 2014 08:18PM

Jhoninck,

Shiller notes that his P/E has demonstrated LONG term correlation with stock prices. It just has to be used correctly. Here is Siller's advice:

He says that the CAPE (his P/E) "is NOT a market timing mechanism, It is continual and it does not tell you -- wait until the market goes all the way down to a CAPE of 7 or something. Right now (at about 24) the CAPE is high but it's not super high." He does advise that as the CAPE goes up it it may be prudent to invest lesss and expect less in the way of LONG TERM gains." There are other important variables.

However, another researcher says that the resaerch indicates problems seem to begin when the CAPE is above 26x, and we are very close to that now. When we get in this range I become much more cautious, particulaly with the "regular" S$P 500 PE near 20.

I suspect we're in the very late ininmgs, perhaps the last, for nowe.


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