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Warren Buffett's Recent Comments on IPOs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo
Posted by: David Kass (IP Logged)
Date: June 15, 2012 04:45PM

At the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) annual meeting on May 5, 2012, Warren Buffett stated that Berkshire has not bought an IPO in 30 years. IPOs come to the market when the sellers want to sell. He added that it makes no sense to spend five seconds on a new issue: "The idea that a new issue is going to be the cheapest thing to buy among thousands of stocks is crazy."

This sage advice provided a clear warning to potential investors in the highly publicized Facebook (FB) IPO on May 18. Facebook has declined 25% from its IPO price of $38.00 to its closing price on June 14 of $28.29.

With respect to U.S. banks in general, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) in particular, Buffett made several comments at the Berkshire annual meeting. He noted that U.S. banks are in far better position than they were a few years ago. They have taken many of their abnormal losses and buttressed capital in a big way. The U.S. banking system "is in fine shape," he said. By contrast, the European banking system "is gasping for air." Overall, the TARP policy was very sound for the U.S. "The Federal Reserve and Treasury acted very responsibly," he said.

Previously, Warren Buffett had mentioned that he owned shares of JPMorgan in his own account, but it was not part of Berkshire's portfolio. When asked to explain this distinction at the annual meeting, Buffett replied that he likes Wells Fargo more than JPMorgan. But since Berkshire owns shares in Wells Fargo, he cannot buy it for his own account. So, he bought shares of JP Morgan as a second choice.

His "best ideas are held by Berkshire." He likes JPMorgan, but he knows Wells Fargo better and thinks it is easier to understand. Berkshire added to its Wells Fargo holding during the first quarter, last year, and in many recent years. Berkshire has invested in Wells Fargo for over 20 years, and Wells Fargo currently represents Berkshire's second largest holding, with a value of $12.5 billion.

Just five days after the Berkshire annual meeting, on May 10, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's highly regarded CEO, revealed the loss of at least $2 billion as a result of an unsuccessful hedging strategy. JPMorgan's shares have declined from $40.74 prior to this announcement, to $34.65 (closing price on June 14), a decline of 15%. By contrast, the S&P 500 has declined by only 2% over this time period. Warren Buffett also noted at this meeting that "The CEO should be the chief risk officer," a statement that in retrospect would clearly apply to Jamie Dimon.

As a result of Warren Buffett's prescient statements relating to IPOs and JPMorgan, it is no wonder that Berkshire Hathaway has performed so well under his stewardship over the past 47 years. As he mentioned at the Economic Club of Washington on June 5, 2012, $10,000 invested in the Buffett Partnership in 1956 would be worth $500 million today. That represents a compounded rate of return of 21.3% over the past 56 years.

By contrast, $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 at the same time would have resulted in a current value of $2 million (compounded rate of return of approximately 10% with dividends included).

Warren Buffett mentioned on several occasions at the annual meeting that he would repurchase shares of Berkshire if they were priced below 1.1 times book value. With these shares currently trading at less than 1.2 times book value, they are attractively priced. He stated both at the annual meeting and at the Economic Club of Washington that the intrinsic value of Berkshire is well above its book value.



Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, JPM, WFC,
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Re Warren Buffett s Recent Comments on IPOs JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo
Posted by: mocheng (IP Logged)
Date: June 21, 2012 08:22AM

Very good article, thank you.



Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, JPM, WFC,
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Re Warren Buffett s Recent Comments on IPOs JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo
Posted by: windplayer13 (IP Logged)
Date: June 21, 2012 08:29AM


Great contribution David. Your accomplishments are extensive, I look forward to reading your future articles.



Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, JPM, WFC,
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Re Warren Buffett s Recent Comments on IPOs JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo
Posted by: AlbertaSunwapta (IP Logged)
Date: June 21, 2012 11:09AM

Good discussion thanks. On JP Morgan, I know little of their hedging positions or the commensurate market movements, so were the derivatives losses caused by flawed logic or were they caused by their inability to keep outsized bets under the radar of the investment community and hold out long enough to be proven correct? (I do understand that the mismatch and thus hedging failure.)

Somewhat like the old, pre-Clinton-Bush-era-banking-reform adage said; there's no such thing as a bad loan, just good loans that go bad," was it more the case that knowing someone was vulnerable, did the market swoop in like vultures to move the market against JP Morgan, and it ended when JP Morgan lost their nerve?

On another small and rather inconsequential note, while I fully understand that it's just for educational purposes, I generally dislike the use of the relatively large sum of $10,000 we all see in that common investment growth calculation "$10,000 in [some year] would be [some fantastic amount] today" comments made by various commentators and in bank literature trying to flog mutual funds. It's often misleading considering the target audience.

My understanding is that back in 1955 the average annual pre-tax income was around $4,000 and a house likely cost around $10,000. As such $10,000 would have been a great sum of discretionary/investable savings to the average young person at that time (i.e. any income earning individual with a 56 year investment horizon - excluding Buffett who was making money as a young teen :-) ).

Even today, $10,000 would be fairly substantial amount of savings for anyone with a 56 year investment horizon such as a 20 year old willing to hold the same investment until the age of 76.



Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, JPM, WFC,
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