|New Threads Only:|
|New Threads & Replies:|
Forum List » Guru News and Commentaries|
Guru News, Stock picks and commentaries
Whiskey and Beer Better Long-Term Bets than Wine
Posted by: Charles Sizemore (IP Logged)
Date: July 3, 2012 07:35AM
It’s not often that a stock with a $5 billion market cap soars by over 20% in a single trading day, but such is the case for Constellation Brands (STZ), the largest publically-traded wine merchant, and now the sole distributor in the United States of Corona and Grupo Modelo’s other Mexican beer brands.
Constellation was the unexpected winner in the Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) – Grupo Modelo merger, as Constellation was able to buy out Bud’s 50% share of the companies’ Crown Imports joint venture for $1.8 billion. Under the new deal, Constellation will have complete control of the distribution, marketing and pricing for all of Modelo’s brands in the United States, while AB InBev will act as supplier.
The deal is a major coup for Constellation—kudos to management for pulling it off—but the company remains one of my least favorite stocks in the alcohol and vice sphere for a one critical reason:
Wine is much harder to brand than beer or spirits. Think about it; when you go to a bar, you can instantly recognize your favorite beer or whiskey on tap or behind the bar. Outside of, say, Coca-Cola (KO), beer and spirits are probably the most recognizable and valuable brand names in existence. Not surprisingly, premium beer and spirits businesses tend to enjoy high margins and high returns on equity relative to their peers.
Wine is a different story. The attractiveness of a given vineyard varies from year to year, and few have national or international brand awareness. Wine connoisseurs know their favorite vintages, but there is little brand loyalty at the mass-market level. For a company of Constellation’s size, wine is a much harder business to operate.
This is not to say that I dislike Constellation or would never consider owning it. “Sin Stocks” are some of my favorite long-term holdings due to their defensive nature and due to their tendency to pay high dividends (Constellation currently pays no dividend), and an argument can be made for making room for Constellation in a diversified vice portfolio. But I would definitely give a higher weighting to premium spirits groups such as Diageo (DEO), Jim Beam (BEAM) and Brown-Forman (BF-B).
One last thing to note: the Crown Imports deal allows Constellation to get a significant chunk of its revenues and profits from the premium beer segment rather than wine. This is good news. But it’s also a source of concern due to a certain provision in the deal. AB InBev has a “call option” of sorts to buy the Modelo brands back in 10 years at 13 times earnings before interest and taxes. This price does not at all appear unreasonable, but if exercised Constellation will find itself as purely a wine merchant again.
Disclosures: DEO and BEAM are held in Sizemore Capital accounts.
Stocks Discussed: STZ, BUD, DEO, BEAM, BF.B, KO,
Disclaimers: GuruFocus.com is not operated by a broker, a dealer, or a registered investment adviser. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The gurus may buy and sell securities before and after any particular article and report and information herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article and report posted herein. In no event shall GuruFocus.com be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on GuruFocus.com, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, GuruFocus.com or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. The gurus listed in this website are not affiliated with GuruFocus.com, LLC. Stock quotes provided by InterActive Data. Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.