|New Threads Only:|
|New Threads & Replies:|
Forum List » Guru News and Commentaries|
Guru News, Stock picks and commentaries
Daniel Loeb Comments on Tesoro Corporation
Posted by: guruhl (IP Logged)
Date: January 9, 2013 05:20PM
New Equity Position: Tesoro Corporation
Tesoro Corporation (TSO) is a $5.7 billion refining and marketing company with assets in the West Coast and Rocky Mountain regions of the US. Tesoro has several characteristics we like in an investment: 1) significant hidden value in high-multiple assets like retail, pipelines, and General Partner interests; 2) impending transactions/projects that are underappreciated by the market; and 3) a shareholder-friendly management team focused on creating value. While it is perhaps unusual to invest in a company following a quarter (Q3 2012) in which the stock appreciated by ~68%, we believe Tesoro remains misunderstood by the market; as evidence, current sell-side analyst price targets range from $35 to $84!
Tesoro trades at one of the lowest multiples (2.6x) in the refining sector on 2012 EBITDA, despite the fact that refining peers are currently “over-earning” due to wide LLS-WTI spreads. In contrast, the bulk of Tesoro’s portfolio (West Coast) is earning margins consistent with historical levels, while the company’s two Mid-Continent assets (Mandan, ND and Salt Lake City, UT) should continue to experience wide crude discounts given their niche positions and distance from coastal markets. Contrary to our expectations for other refiners, we see Tesoro’s earnings rising in the coming years, notwithstanding shrinking WTI-LLS spreads.
Part of this earnings growth will come from the pending acquisition of BP’s 266kbpd Carson refinery. After deducting working capital and ~$1.125 billion of logistics and retail value, Tesoro paid about $50 million for a refinery that is estimated to generate $375 million of EBITDA and yield an additional ~$250 million in annual synergies. We expect this deal to be approved by regulators in the first half of 2013. Finally, Tesoro is one of the last refining companies to begin returning meaningful amounts of cash to shareholders. The company should continue to repurchase significant amounts of its undervalued stock in the near-term and subsequently use a combination of regular and special dividends to distribute excess cash to shareholders.
Using conservative assumptions, we see Tesoro generating about $9 per share in annual excess FCF on a normalized basis and our expectation is that shares can double from the current price of $40. We believe the Q3 story was only the beginning, and are happy to own Tesoro for its next few chapters.
From Daniel Loeb's Third Point fourth quarter investor letter.
Re Daniel Loeb Comments on Tesoro Corporation
Posted by: jpaisie (IP Logged)
Date: January 10, 2013 08:57AM
I think there is an overly optimistic view of the supply/demand dynamics in the West Coast
Demand will continue to be muted -- and with the Chevron refinery coming online the supply/demand dynamics will become even less favorable.
FTC approval of the acquisition of the BP refinery is also not a sure bet.
Disclaimers: GuruFocus.com is not operated by a broker, a dealer, or a registered investment adviser. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The gurus may buy and sell securities before and after any particular article and report and information herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article and report posted herein. In no event shall GuruFocus.com be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on GuruFocus.com, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, GuruFocus.com or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. The gurus listed in this website are not affiliated with GuruFocus.com, LLC. Stock quotes provided by InterActive Data. Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.