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Re Carl Icahn on Bloomberg TV - I don t like or respect Bill Ackman
Posted by: vgm (IP Logged)
Date: January 27, 2013 02:34PM

Shb600,

1. I repeat: you're a fool to believe what you hear on CNBC.

2. Loeb is credible and rigorous. He may be in and out quicker than others but why is that wrong? You use "opportunistic" in a pejorative fashion. Not so. Buffett very recently remarked that one of his new managers (it's almost certainly Combs) moved his positions around quicker than Buffett himself would do, but then commented that there's not only one way to make money. Arguably the very best analyst out there, Steve Mandel, can buy and sell and buy again quarter upon quarter sometimes. He's fabulous and fabulously successful.

You do not know how easy or difficult it is/was for Chanos with his shorts. You're guessing. Wall St are always nowhere! If you stop and think about it, companies do in fact give out the information necessary to assess a short. The short seller just needs to know what figures to look for. But, as I said already, and you repeated, they have to be sure of their conclusions, very sure.

4. Your "reading between the lines" is your business. Don't bother me with it. For everyone agreeing with Ackman, there are two naysayers. You cannot conclude anything from what Holland is saying. Holland versus Loeb and Icahn? C'mon!

5. On MBIA, you're speculating (again). Nothing personal, but it's not worth reading.



Guru Discussed: Carl Icahn: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Bill Ackman: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: HLF,
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Re Carl Icahn on Bloomberg TV - I don t like or respect Bill Ackman
Posted by: shb600 (IP Logged)
Date: January 27, 2013 05:58PM

Vgm,
1. Ok I'm a fool to believe that a reporter on CNBC says she spoke to a source who used to work for Icahn who said that Ackman got the better of him in the lawsuit because Icahn is not a detail person. You believe she is lying and has no source or that the source is lying and that Icahn is a details type person? Icahn is a fabulous investor, but it's been widely reported that he doesn't care for the nitty gritty. For better or worse that is his reputation, although it has worked out to the tune of $14-$18 billion net worth for Icahn
2.I don't use "opportunistic" as a pejorative. I only believe that if Loeb thought HLF was a great investment he had plenty of time to buy it below $45 during the last year, but he didn't until Ackman made his presentation and HLF went down 40%. I'm sure Loeb will make a lot of money on the trade. Point being he's not sticking around for the long-term. The NY Post reported he's short NUS, which has similar problems as HLF. If he loves the business model why short NUS. Apparently Loeb dislikes Ackman also. Which was pretty clear in his quarterly letter. Interestingly Ackman made fun of Loeb's love of surfing at a conference one time. Could he really be that thin skinned? Agreed Mandel is one of the best. Wouldn't it be great if he shared the details of his trades to the rest of us. I've never found one investor letter or detailed presentation he's made only very sparse details.

Here's a link to Chanos testimony to Congress detailing the incredible amount of work his firm did on Enron.
[url=valueprax.wordpress.com/2012/01/23/lessons-in-short-selling-why-jim-chanos-targeted-enron/][/url]

It did not jump of the page. So yes I do know that it was complicated work. Unless you also think I'm a fool for believing Chanos testimony. These hedge funds wouldn't have 50-100 or more employees working for them if this stuff just jumped off the page. Munger and Buffett can do it by themselves few can.
3. Reading between the lines Icahn won't say he's long Chanos won't say he's short. Einhorn wouldn't say he was short for 7 months. It seemed pretty clear he was and he just said on a conference call he was short he made money and covered. Seems pretty clear Icahn is long and Chanos is short.
4. I'm not speculating about Ackman's position in MBI. there was a book written about it that he mentioned during the interview Friday called Confidence Game. It tells the whole story of the MBI short. Here's a link to the bloomberg story that says Ackman was lond CDS on MBI and could make a profit of 5 times his entire funds assets. I'd say he wasn't hurt by any opportunity cost as you suggest.
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLmOb9zzVZ9A
But I guess you will claim the author of the book is making it all up and the Bloomberg reporter as well and I'm a fool to believe either even though there is a long public record to back everything up.

I'm going to make a prediction you will love Loeb and Icahn both make a ton of money on their short-term trade in HLF. Yet ultimately the Ackman thesis plays out and he is vindicated. The consensus wiew is only the courts ruling that HLFis a pyramid scheme creates a win for Ackman. HLF is also a huge loser if the govt regulates it like it has the for-profit education companies(and no buyback will save them it hasn't saved the education stocks) or there is so much publicity that distributors drop out by droves.He probably won't be sharing anymore ideas after this. Which is too bad because he's a very long-term investor who is willing to share his ideas in detail. He shared his long in GGP that including spinoffs went up well over 20fold and he is still long 5 years later. Wish all great investors were as forthright in sharing there ideas. Most would prefer to operate in the shadows. Chanos has said he doesn't believe managers should have to make public any of their holdings. He's right they shouldn't. But the rest of us who don't have teams of analysts,legal experts, hire outside consultants to do research and channel checks, and years of experience can learn a lot from them while they still do. Oh wait this stuff just jumps off the page. And Ray Dalio is wasting his money on 1500 employees. Is he another fool?



Guru Discussed: Carl Icahn: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Bill Ackman: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: HLF,
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