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The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: Juno Tay (IP Logged)
Date: February 15, 2013 11:36AM

During the early days of his career, Buffett invested in the same was as Graham did, focusing on a variety of "cigar butts" - businesses that were for the most part unattractive except for their price, complimented with investments in special situations. However, with influence from Philip Fisher, author of "Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits," and his partner, Charlie Munger, Buffett switched his focus to what he is now more famous for: businesses that possess competitive moats selling for reasonable prices.

Where the philosophies of Graham & Fisher merged and where Buffett first had his "eureka" moment were, in my view, during the Salad Oil Scandal of 1963. American Express fell victim to fraud and suffered substantial losses as a result. Here Buffett sensed an opportunity: was the underlying business that American Express (AXP) engaged in damaged? His "scuttlebutt research" revealed that it was not. While the scandal cost American Express greatly, the impact that it had on its name and level of prestige, along with its ability to generate future profits from that credibility, were left unharmed and intact.Graham's focus on hard assets would have steered him away from American Express.

Fisher's influence though was far greater here, as he believed the qualitative aspects of the business were far more important, and Buffett effectively integrated the two underlying views: buying a business with an endurable economic moat at a bargain price. The crux of the investment decision came down to the underlying question of whether the impact on the business was permanent. History has shown that Buffett was right on all counts.

Buffett has often remarked that the value of a business is essentially the value of all its future cash flows added up and discounted to the present, i.e. a discounted cash flow model. This means that one has to take a rough guess regarding the estimated growth rate in order to arrive at such a figure. It is essential to bear in mind that such figures are not plucked from thin air, that they are the results of a careful examination of existing financial results and a careful analysis of the business itself and any managerial decisions.Making such a projection into the future is inherently a risky bet. Many variables are at play: The entrance of future competitors and the emergence of new trends are just some of the potential problems.

For this very reason, you saw Buffett gravitating towards businesses which had an inherent "inevitability" to them, businesses akin to Coca Cola (KO), P&G (PG) and Wells Fargo (WFC), for example. Although their future is not certain, there is a higher probability that particular habits will not change that much, such as the way us humans eat and drink, in comparison to what new gadget we will own tomorrow. It is therefore easy to understand why Buffett chose not to invest in technology companies regardless of the valuations; any projection into the future will be inherently flawed from the outset and rendered meaningless.

While Buffett's approach certainly aided him well, there are pitfalls for the average investor who seeks to adopt such an approach to investing. There are shortcomings to Graham's approach of finding statistical bargains, although its attractiveness is that it requires very little judgment in predicting the future. It is very much a simplified "quant-based" strategy founded on the fundamental principles of value investing.Buffett's approach requires much greater skill. It requires much more intensive research into not only the underlying company, but its competitors, the industry and much more. All these factors are required to make a future projection of cash flow. Furthermore, it is easy to err in the process of making an estimation of future growth rates and it is hard to ascertain whether one is right in the predictions for the years ahead.

Either strategy, providing that it is applied effectively, will yield satisfactory results for investors. However, those who attempt to mimic Buffet must bear in mind the intricacies of his investment process and put in the requisite work required of such a method.

Check Out The Asia Report.



Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: AXP, PG, WFC,
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Re The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: Discoveror (IP Logged)
Date: February 15, 2013 10:43AM

NICELY put and, more valuably, summarized.

I wish that reading `700 pages of 'Security Analysis' said as much ... and as succinctly.

THANK YOU ... for that.



Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: AXP, PG, WFC,
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Re The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: LwC (IP Logged)
Date: February 15, 2013 11:10AM

IMHO the attempts by commentators to interpret Buffett's investing practice as divergent from Graham's is overblown. Buffett himself has contradicted those opinions many times.

Here's one example: "[Graham and Dodd] laid out a roadmap for investing that I have now been following for 57 years. There's been no reason to look for another." - Warren Buffett (2009)




Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: AXP, PG, WFC,
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Re The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: Juno Tay (IP Logged)
Date: February 15, 2013 05:33PM

Discoveror: Thank you for your kind words.

LwC: I think Buffett has deviated from Graham quite clearly in his investment methodology - i.e. how he values business, the price he is willing to pay etc. However, the principles, such as margin of safety, ignoring Mr. Market are still well and true.

Problem with financial journalism its all in "sound bites". I really recommend reading his shareholder letters and both his biographies to gain a better understanding of what he does.



Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
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Re The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: LwC (IP Logged)
Date: February 15, 2013 06:19PM

Yes, you are correct of course. How foolish of me to pay attention to Buffett's opinion. Sorry about that!




Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: AXP, PG, WFC,
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Re The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: jonkevinlai (IP Logged)
Date: February 17, 2013 09:25PM


Juno, good article.

LwC, I too pay attention to Buffett's opinions and it is certainly more than just that one liner in isolation. It is also Buffetts opinion that besides Graham and Dodd, he has been deeply influenced by Fisher and also his partner Munger. He has said so himself many times in interviews and shareholder letters.



Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: AXP, PG, WFC,
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Re The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: LwC (IP Logged)
Date: February 17, 2013 11:55PM

@jonkevinlai,

Well at least I referred to an actual quote expressed by Buffett in support my opinion. The author of this article did not even once quote Buffett even though he/she purports to provide insight into Buffett's thinking. I'm satisfied to rely on even just one short quote by Buffett for insight into his thinking over someone else's potentially misguided opinions. You are in turn free to choose which sources you will rely on to guide your thinking about the subject.

I've provided in another thread a link to a study that IMO gives a more nuanced, and more cogent view of the subject:

[www.gurufocus.com]

Please note that the author of this study provides information and quotes that are referenced to his sources. This a marked contrast to Juno Tay's article, which does not provide even one source for the material he/she incorporated into his/her article. Of course you can decide for yourself which author presents the better case in support of their conclusions.

Good luck.




Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: AXP, PG, WFC,
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Re The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: Juno Tay (IP Logged)
Date: February 18, 2013 09:38AM


LWC:

As Benjamin Graham once said, you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd agrees or disagree with you, but because of your research and reasoning.

My own conclusion was based on my own research and work into Buffett's career. If you are looking for quotes on Buffett, I can only say to look to his biographies, or the multiple books available to reach your own conclusion.

Regards,




Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: AXP, PG, WFC,
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Re The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: LwC (IP Logged)
Date: February 18, 2013 10:56AM

"If you are looking for quotes on Buffett, I can only say to look to his biographies, or the multiple books available to reach your own conclusion. "

Well gee whizz Juno Tay, maybe I have done a fair amount of reading of Graham, Buffett, Fisher, and others, over the years and have already reached my own conclusion based on the reading and my own investment experience. So I will ignore your rather snarky response and focus again on the credibility of your thesis.

Yes I have reached my own conclusion, and in fact, that is what I stated in my first response to you: that IMHO Buffett has not "fundamentally" diverged from Graham's investment methodology. IMO it's just the opposite: that though Buffett has "evolved" his investment practice over the years, he still adheres to Graham's fundamental investment practice as he learned it directly from Graham. In part, I believe that because Buffett says so himself.

In addition to Buffett's apparently unambiguous quotes on the subject, I even provided above a link to another study on the subject that IMO fairly contradicts your assertion. Did you read it? Not only does he tackle the attempts by commentators such as yourself to assert that there is a "fundamental difference" between Graham and Buffett, but IMO he does a good job of it. And unlike you, he provides references to his quotes and sources in the form of footnotes and a bibliography.

And I point out again, while you assert that you have done your "own research and work into Buffett's career", you have not provided any references for your sources. You have not even quoted Buffett on the subject. You didn't even provide a Buffett quote about Fisher. How do reconcile your thesis to Buffett's own words? You didn't even bother to try.

In short, between you and Buffett, IMO Buffett is the more credible source.

Good luck.




Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: AXP, PG, WFC,
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Re The Fundamental Difference Between Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett Part 2
Posted by: AlbertaSunwapta (IP Logged)
Date: February 18, 2013 03:31PM

A simple difference between the two might be recognition of the impact of trading and capital gains taxes on final returns.



Guru Discussed: Warren Buffett: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
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