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The Teflon Market
Posted by: Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP (IP Logged)
Date: October 21, 2013 07:12AM
At the pace of all this head-scratching going on, our population is likely to turn completely bald. One thing is for certain, nothing has scratched this Teflon stock market. If you want to have fun with a friend, family member or co-worker, just ask them how they feel about politics and then ask them how stocks have done this year? You’re bound to get some entertaining responses. Despite a Congress that has a lower favorability rating than cockroaches, lice, root canals, and colonoscopies , the S&P 500 index is up a whopping +22% and the NASDAQ index + 30% this year, both records. The USA Today ran with the Teflon theme and had this to say:
The reason nothing is sticking to this Teflon market is because the market is more sensitive to reality rather than perception. Here are some come current discrepancies between these two states:
Perception: The economy is on the verge of a recession. Reality: The economy has grown GDP for 15 of the last 16 quarters. The private sector has added about 7.5 million jobs and the unemployment rate has been cut by about three percentage points.
Perception: Corporations are struggling. Reality: Corporations are actually posting record profits; increasing dividends significantly; buying back stock; and registering record profit margins.
Perception: The Federal Reserve controls the economy. Reality: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has little to no influence on decisions made by companies like Google Inc (GOOG), Facebook Inc (FB), McDonald’s Corp (MCD), Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA), and Target Corporation (TGT) (see also The Greatest Thing Since Sliced Bread). Interest rates are actually higher than when QE1 (quantitative easing) was first implemented, yet growth persists.
These types of mental mistakes occur outside the realm of financial markets as well. For example, most people fail to correctly answer the question, “Which animal is responsible for the greatest number of human deaths in the U.S.?”
A.) Alligator; B.) Bear; C.) Deer; D.) Shark; and E.) Snake
The ANSWER: C) Deer.
Deer colliding into cars trigger seven times more deaths than alligators, bears, sharks, and snakescombined, according to Jason Zweig at the Wall Street Journal (see also Alligators & Airplane Crashes). Other mental disconnects include the belief that planes are more dangerous than cars. In fact, people are 65 times more likely to get killed in your own car versus a plane. Also, misconceptions exist that guns are more dangerous than smoking, or that tornadoes are more dangerous than asthma – both beliefs wrong.
Party Not Over Yet
Long-time followers and readers of Investing Caffeine know that I’ve been an active participant in this bull market that started in 2009, evidenced by my critical views of Armageddonists like Peter Schiff, John Mauldin, Nouriel Roubini, Meredith Whitney, and other doom & gloomers.
I fully recognize there’s no honor in being Pollyannaish or a perma-bull just for the sake of it. However, it’s also very clear that excessive fear exercised by many investors proved very painful as S&P 500 level 666 has exploded to 1,744. The extreme panic that reached a pinnacle in 2009 has now morphed into an insidious skepticism (see Sentiment Pendulum ). Investor emotions continually swing from fear to greed, and with the political shenanigans going on in Washington DC, the skeptical pendulum has a long way before reaching euphoric levels. Or stated differently, the pre-party is over (see my article from earlier this year, Those Who Missed the Pre-Party), but the DJ is still playing and the cops aren’t here to break up the party yet.
I agree that we’ve had a Teflon market for a handful of years. There have been a few minimal scratches and a few hand burns along the way, but for the most part, those investors who have stayed invested and ignored the endless manufactured crisis headlines have been rewarded handsomely. Investing in stocks will always cause some heartburn, but if you don’t want your long-term retirement to get grilled, seared, pan-fried, or flambéed, then you want to make sure you still have some stocks in your Teflon pan.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP[b]®[/b]
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), AAPL and GOOG, but at the time of publishing, SCM had no direct position in FB, TGT, TSLA, MCD, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is the information to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on ICContact page.
Stocks Discussed: GOOG, FB, MCD, TSLA, TGT,
The Teflon Market
Posted by: vgm (IP Logged)
Date: October 22, 2013 05:44AM
"but for the most part, those investors who have stayed invested and ignored the endless manufactured crisis headlines have been rewarded handsomely"
Yes, it's been bonanza time. But no surprise really, since Buffett gave us the 'Buy American' signal back in 2009. And in further analogy with your perspective, he's now saying the markets are fairly valued, but not stretched. Others like Howard Marks agree. But could we have a pullback? Yes, of course.
Regarding what you call the Armageddonist forecasters - and I could add more names - Charlie Munger's words come to mind: "Forecasts tell you more about the forecaster than the future." There's no shortage of what appears to be intelligent commentary (albeit mainly rearview-mirroring) from these people, but the markets are by far too complex and ever-changing under innumerable economic and psychological forces - and ever more in today's interconnected world - for anyone to grasp intellectually, let alone predict. As Howard Marks put it, 'the financial world is full of one-time wonders who have predicted correct once in a row.'
Viewing stocks as businesses, and buying with a margin of safety, as advised by Buffett, while puting forecasts on the "too hard pile" is the way to ensure our "Teflon pan" has a few good things. In 2009 we had a once-in-a-generation opportunity to use our deepest, widest Teflon pan - and pile it high.
Thanks for the stimulation - past and present.
Stocks Discussed: GOOG, FB, MCD, TSLA, TGT,