|New Threads Only:|
|New Threads & Replies:|
Forum List » Guru News and Commentaries|
Guru News, Stock picks and commentaries
Is It Too Late to Get Into Loeb's New Trade?
Posted by: Fede Zaldua (IP Logged)
Date: October 23, 2013 05:08PM
Thanks to some successful investments such as Yahoo (YHOO), so far, Daniel Loeb and his investors have been able to enjoy a very profitable 2013. But one new attractive idea has appeared in Loeb's mind. In a third quarter letter to the investors of his fund, the founder of Third Point LLC made public a significant stake in Nokia (NOK) after the Finnish company sold its money-losing handset business to Microsoft (MSFT) for $7.2 billion in a deal which will most probably be materialized during this year's last quarter.
Loeb's Reasons to Buy Nokia
According to Third Point's estimates, Nokia holds cash reserves of over $11 billion after Microsoft's acquisition. Clearly, Loeb thinks there is no need for the “new Nokia” to hold such a huge amount of cash. Hence, a strong share buy-back or a special dividend should be on management's cards. Is it really no need for huge cash reserves? I agree with Loeb. After the sale of its struggling handset business, Nokia will have three business lines: Its wireless infrastructure business (NSN), which shall be the core of the new company, its mapping business, and a large IP portfolio to monetize. All three business lines will surely continue to be profitable, stable and cash flow generating.
As a matter of fact, for the third quarter of the year it would be realistic to expect Nokia to deliver group sales of $8 billion (+6% quarter-over-quarter) and an operating profit of $175 million. This facts, added to an estimated 2014 free cash flow (FCF) generation for its NSN business of just over $215 million, makes the case even clearer. Loeb is right. Nokia has no need for huge cash reserves. If a cash return to shareholders is not on management's plan, the activist investor will put his trademark pressure tactics on play in order to make the cash return possible.
Even when we take into a account a reasonable -although huge- cash distribution of $6 billion (which represents over 22% of the company's current market capitalization), Nokia's valuation already seems somewhat rich. According to Credit Suisse's analysts, in 2014, Nokia could generate an EBITDA as high as $2.4 billion. This would translate into a multiple of 2014 8.9 times EV/EBITDA.
Has Loeb made a mistake? I don’t think so. He bought a while ago and Nokia's shares are up by almost 85% during the last 12 weeks (three months). Even when I think the cash distribution will finally materialize, I also think such cash distribution is already reflected into the company's price. Remember “price is what you give and value is what you get.”
The good news is that Nokia is finally a sustainable business. The company's handset operations were a drag which has been finally eliminated. What is left is a much more stable and sustainable company with a strong cash flow generation. The bad news is that now it's too late to get into the trade. The share price already discounts the huge cash distribution which will most surely happen.
Re Is It Too Late to Get Into Loeb s New Trade
Posted by: rooom99@yahoo (IP Logged)
Date: October 24, 2013 03:21AM
Loeb bought during the end of September 2013, share price around EUR 4,50.
Now, we see around EUR 5,20.
Disclaimers: GuruFocus.com is not operated by a broker, a dealer, or a registered investment adviser. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The gurus may buy and sell securities before and after any particular article and report and information herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article and report posted herein. In no event shall GuruFocus.com be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on GuruFocus.com, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, GuruFocus.com or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. The gurus listed in this website are not affiliated with GuruFocus.com, LLC. Stock quotes provided by InterActive Data. Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.