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My First Equity Investment Since 2012
Posted by: The Science of Hitting (IP Logged)
Date: February 4, 2014 09:57AM

After 12 months, I ended 2013 without a single equity purchase – but I couldn’t make it through the first one in 2014! It’s tough to delineate why we act the way that we do sometimes (for example, would I have made this purchase if I had 2% of my funds in cash as opposed to about 20%?), but I think I’m making this investment with a clear focus on what matters most: buying at a discount to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value. I believe I’ve found a good business, with sound reinvestment prospects, a management team that has a proven track record (and a compensation structure that incentives a sound focus on shareholder interests), and a palatable valuation. With that, let me explain a bit further why I’ve purchased shares of Wal-Mart (WMT).

At the end of the most recent quarter, the company had 3.27 billion diluted shares outstanding; at $74 per share, the market capitalization comes to approximately $240 billion. Thirteen years ago, WMT shares traded just shy of their current level – the difference being that EPS has more than quadrupled since 2000. In the ensuing years, the stock has gone all of nowhere: The earnings multiple has contracted and contracted, a story familiar to many other companies over much of that period (JNJ, KO, etc.). I’m not making a bet on where the multiple will go next year – in fact, I would love to see it contract further; simply put, I believe that the implied returns (based on historical financials and conservative forward estimates) are well ahead of comparable alternatives like fixed income – significantly more than necessary to account for the added risk. On an absolute basis (the measure I’m most concerned with), I also believe the implied returns are satisfactory.

As I noted in my last article, the company’s financial performance has been amazingly consistent: operating margins have stuck in a 40 basis point range over the past decade, and the return on assets metric in any given year has never deviated by more than a single percentage point from the 10-year average. Sales per store in the United States have nearly doubled over the last 15 years, with the unit count increasing ~70% as well; Sam’s Club looks quite similar, with sales per club at ~$91 million from ~$46 million fifteen years ago, on top of 40% unit growth.

Grocery accounts for the majority of US sales, a category that the company didn’t participate in 25 years ago. In the most recent year, Wal-Mart’s grocery business was about ten times larger than Target’s (TGT); even before considering Sam’s Club, I estimate the company’s annual U.S. grocery sales are twice as large as Kroger’s (KR), the next closest competitor (after backing out fuel and pharmacy). Let’s focus on one category where size is a relevant competitive factor: as a Wall Street Journal article from 2011 noted, buying local is increasingly important in produce; beyond consumer preferences, companies have determined that trimming the number of “food miles” in an era of high diesel prices cuts fuel costs (like nearshoring in manufacturing), and also results in lower spoilage. By 2015, WMT hopes that ~10% of all fruit and vegetable purchases will be local; I think this trend will continue – and Wal-Mart should be able to win business from the largest, most efficient local producers over time. The cost benefits from this position (as opposed to cobbling together a network of smaller, less efficient producers) are likely to be material; that’s just one example of where scale can translate into a competitive advantage.

 

Many people believe that next frontier in grocery is ecommerce and delivery, but my personal opinion is that there’s still much work to be done on this front; the fact that Amazon (AMZN) Fresh costs $300 a year (or more than $5 per order for someone who normally shops once a week), before considering delivery charges on orders that don’t exceed a relatively steep limit, is telling. I personally believe that online plus in-store pickup may be an economically viable model for retailers, without charging fees that most consumers would consider exorbitant (Fresh is 3X more expensive than a Netflix subscription); Wal-Mart clearly has a solid starting position if that's where we're heading, and they’re actively testing the concept in Denver as we speak. The company’s plan to expand their network of smaller format stores in the US will help move them another step ahead of the competition.

I won't talk much about e-commerce, other than to rehash what I discussed a few weeks ago (here). Wal-Mart’s e-commerce sales are expected to have crossed $10 billion this past year (+30% year over year), on their way to more than $13 billion next year (good for another year of 30% growth). In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Wal-Mart’s head of e-commerce said the following: "This is not a side project; this is how we will be serving customers going forward." He also noted that Wal-Mart will be able to match Amazon’s range of products and shipping times in the next twenty-four months – in addition to a mix of online and brick and mortar transactions and delivery options that Amazon simply cannot match (like the grocery options discussed above). Wal-Mart recognizes the threat from Amazon, and is devoting significant financial resources to competing with the juggernaut (most of which flow through the income statement in the year incurred as expenses). At the same time, the company realizes they can do many things with their retail footprint that Amazon cannot. This fight will continue for many years, and it isn’t winner takes all; with that said, I think Wal-Mart holds an enviable hand.

Over the past decade, the company has returned ~70% of earnings (on average) to shareholders via dividends and repurchases; at a going-in earnings yield north of 7%, this would suggest a “shareholder yield” – accounting for dividends and repurchases as a percentage of the current market cap – around 5%. The remaining 30% of earnings ($5B+) are retained and reinvested back into the business, along with the additional debt that this new level of equity can sustain (the company has historically run around 2.5x on this measure, comparable to where it currently stands). All in, that’s a nice starting yield plus significant reinvestment in growth as a kicker.

In the past few years, Wal-Mart has only been able to squeeze out a few points of revenue growth (average of 5% since fiscal 2008), all of which has come from new stores; while sales per U.S. unit have increased over that time period (albeit slightly), sales per international store have cratered – they’re 25% below where they came in six years ago. International units grew single digits in FY13, the first time that metric hasn’t been in the double digits in a decade; the fact that management recently cut the FY15 International CapEx target by $500M is a telling sign that the slowdown in FY13 will not be a one-off event. I think this is justified by the numbers; until the results start to look more like FY05-FY07, throwing good money after bad isn’t the answer.

As always, there’s two sides to the story – and while International has struggled, the beauty of such an outcome is that it creates some optionality in the stock; unless you think stores outside of the U.S. are heading to zero, one must ask when the slide will either slowdown or reverse – as well as what that outcome would mean for the company as a whole. Management will require International to pull its weight, or capital will be spent elsewhere (the fact that the NEO’s derive 50% of their long term equity compensation based on ROI assures that management will keep this in mind); as an investor, I think that’s the right approach to take – I’m more than happy with repurchases that increase my ownership of the current retail footprint at reasonable valuations as opposed to top line growth from less attractive per unit economics.

A tough holiday for retailers has spilled over into the New Year: ShopperTrack estimates that retail sales increased 2.7% in January, compared to the 4.4% average increase in 2012 & 2013. The Dow was down more than 7% through February 3rd, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF down more than 12% over that same period; there’s blood in the streets – and as a value investor, that’s what I love to see (WMT fell a little over 5% in January, with a current market cap of ~$240 billion). I would be quite happy to see another 5% decline next month, if Mr. Market were feeling so kind (he lopped off another 2.7% on day one).

For the trailing year, management expects earnings of ~$5.10 per share (the company will report on February 20th); after making some adjustments (again, see my prior article), I estimate owner’s earnings is closer to $5.80 per share. At $74 per share, the stock is trading for less than 13X owner’s earnings; with a 10% discount rate, a reverse DCF model from the current stock price implies terminal growth of ~3% per annum. For the sake of a reference point, diluted EPS has increased 11% per annum over the past decade; even in the five year period ending in fiscal 2009 (when operating margins and ROA touched their lowest point since the turn of the century), earnings per share still increased at 7% per annum. While domestic comps have struggled as of late (they’ve been in negative territory for all of FY14, after trailing lower every quarter through FY13), the 10-year trailing average was +2.3% per annum; that’s the long way of saying that I think 3% per annum will prove to be pretty darn pessimistic in hindsight, as has started to happen with J&J in the past few quarters (investors who bought when Mr. Market only saw trouble for JNJ in 2011 and early 2012 are currently sitting on unrealized gains of ~50% or so, before dividends).

To reiterate what I said above, I like this valuation compared with other alternatives; I believe that investors are likely to generate all-in returns at or above 10% per annum from current levels over a reasonable holding period (5-10 years). Compared to a ten year treasury yield around 2.6%, that sounds pretty good; looking at other equity investments, I think that same conclusion still holds. However, I’m not going crazy here; while 10% sounds pretty good by comparison, that’s the low end of what I’m happy with on an absolute basis – and that’s the lens I view potential investments through. Some quick math would show that if I think the current valuation ($74) is good for 10% per annum (including dividends), under $67 is the level where that metric moves north of 12% (using a 5-year holding period). If we get back to the mid-60’s (where the stock traded back in 2012), I’ll start adding to the position more aggressively (currently it’s ~3% of my portfolio; that’s generally the smallest increment I move in). The lower we go, the more I’ll buy.

As always, I’m interested in hearing what others think. I tried to keep this article as short as possible while still hitting the key points; if there’s something you would like to discuss further (or something that you think I’m missing), please let me know!



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Re My First Equity Investment Since 2012
Posted by: MritikCapital (IP Logged)
Date: February 4, 2014 12:16PM

Hi Science,

Thanks for the detailed article. WMT is a fine company and I think your investment will likely do quite well over time. There is a lot of earnings power and ability to retrurn capital via buyback of lots of shares, if growth in US is saturated. There is also growth left in emerging markets like India, China and Africa.

However, I would like to hear your thoughts about relative valuation when comparing BRK.B vs WMT. At a price of $108 BRK.B shares seem to be pretty close to 1.2 times multiple of likely 2013 year end book value of $90. Given that BRK.B has ability to deploy capital by picking best options among many sectors and better tax efficiency do you see it as a better buy.

I believe from your previous articles that BRK is one of your larger positions and your thoughts are much appreciated.

 



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Re My First Equity Investment Since 2012
Posted by: pvsk77 (IP Logged)
Date: February 4, 2014 05:26PM

Good Article. I have a question which I have been struggling it for a while. It is the relationship between EPS and FCF/Share. Great companies require little capital expenditure to maintain operations and generate a lot of free cashflow. However, there is a difference between capital expenditures used for expansion (and hence incremental cashflow in the future) and capital expenditure required to just keep up. 

In case of WMT, there is a big difference between EPS and FCF/share for TTM. Looks like the EPS will be around 5.2 and the FCF/Share would be around 3.1. How do I know where the capital expenditure is being used? Do you look at the ROIC in relationship to make that determination? 

I own WMT for the past six and half years with an XIRR of 10.29%. Looking forward to add more, However wondering whether a high ROIC business like COH or KO is a better alternative. 



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Re My First Equity Investment Since 2012
Posted by: The Science of Hitting (IP Logged)
Date: February 4, 2014 06:07PM

Mritik - I'm glad you liked it. You're right about Berkshire - it's about 30% of my equity portfolio. I actually agree with everything you've said, and another 5% off the stock price and I'm a buyer again. Whether or not that happens, time will tell; WMT was a green light after further analysis so that came first. Thanks for the comment!



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Re My First Equity Investment Since 2012
Posted by: The Science of Hitting (IP Logged)
Date: February 4, 2014 06:13PM

Pvsk77 - In the case of WMT, they breakout maintenance and reinvestment CapEx (not entirely, but enough that I think you can derive some useful information); I tried to touch on that a bit in my article covering WMT's numbers. My preferred method is to simply follow the cash through the CF statement and the income statement, and follow ROA & ROE over the years with DuPont Analysis. Any incremental addition to assets will hinder the ROA measure if it is not generating returns that match the base; I don't want to go crazy with this stuff because you can start penalizing a company for investments that don't pay off within 12 months - and that's counterintuitive for a long term shareholder if opportunities are present. I'm not sure if that answers your question - let me know if there's anything I failed to cover. Thanks for the comment!

 



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Re My First Equity Investment Since 2012
Posted by: sapporosteve (IP Logged)
Date: February 5, 2014 02:14AM

Science,

I know you are not one for macro issues, but it seems brave to me to be buying when the market is well overvalued. Of course it can go higher but it would seem to have a greater probability of a downside rather than upside.

Howard Marks (Trades, Portfolio) made the following statement and I wonder if you think it is valid - even in the case of buying a giant like WMT.

"If you buy a cheap stock when the market is high, it is a challenge because, if the market being high is followed by a general decline in prices, then for you to make money in your cheap stock, you have to swim against the tide. If you buy when the market is low, and that lowness is going to be corrected by a general inflation, and you buy your cheap stock, then you have the tailwind in your favor….I think it is unrealistic and maybe hubristic to say, “I don’t care about what is going on in the world. I know a cheap stock when I see one.” If you don’t follow the pendulum and understand the cycle, then that implies that you always invest as much money as aggressively. That doesn’t make any sense to me. I have been around too long to think that a good investment is always equally good all the time regardless of the climate.” –Howard Marks (Trades, Portfolio).

regards

Steve

 

 

 

 



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Re My First Equity Investment Since 2012
Posted by: The Science of Hitting (IP Logged)
Date: February 5, 2014 07:19AM

Steve - I think Howard's right, and you can likely see some of that in my position sizing (I still havea  mid-teens cash position, which obviously reflects finding less opportunities). Take a different case: in August and September 2011, I was buying all the Berkshire I could; about 90% of my position was purchased in those 60 days, and it accounts for ~30% of my overall portfolio. While I wasn't actively thinking about the economy / market valuation, I didn't have any reason to believe that the market was very expensive either; I thought Berkshire was materially undervalued - the fact that a few other things looked the same way (in my eyes) might have confirmed that the market as a whole was cheap. I don't think that impacted my decision in a big way, but it would be a stretch to say that didn't impact my thinking at all (for better or worse).

 

With that said, let's go back to Wal-Mart. The Dow and S&P peaked in August 2007 and bottomed in March 2009; from top to bottom, both fell by more than 50%. Clearly that's not a small move; the general view is that you couldn't survive such a dive - that individual stock selection was secondary to the macro; many go on from there to say why care about the individual company at all (Howard's obviously not in that camp - but many people are).

 

How much of a headwind was this for WMT stock? Over that same period, WMT was UP ~10%. What does that prove? To me, it suggests that investors should focus on understanding what makes a great business great, and buy them when they are cheap; if they end up falling when the market as a whole takes a dive, buy more. Trying to guess when / if that will happen is futile. 

 

Howard Marks (Trades, Portfolio) is smarter than I am, and believes that he can look at the market as a whole to determine whether or not now is the time to buy an investment that he thinks can generate 15% per annum (or whatever his required return is); I'm happy with the 15% piece if I think it's reasonably assured. Thanks for the comment!



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Re My First Equity Investment Since 2012
Posted by: TheBourqueReport (IP Logged)
Date: February 5, 2014 08:31PM

The market isn't overvalued anyway... it's somewhere in the range of fairly valued. How do you come to know this? Try valuing 100 of the most predictable companies you can find and compare them with their metrics in low markets, average markets, and overpriced markets. If you are like me you will keep saving money the same as always but invest about 50-60% of your permanent savings capital now. Then you will invest 50-60% of your new savings money earmarked for investment. When the market is more overvalued, drop your investment allocation to 30-40% for overvalued and down to 0% once it is very overvalued. By the same token, increase it as the market tanks! 

Keep this strategy up for 10 years, I bet you will retire...



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Re My First Equity Investment Since 2012
Posted by: The Science of Hitting (IP Logged)
Date: February 17, 2014 05:08PM

BourqueReport: Interesting idea - thanks for your thoughts!



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