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Re: Where Are The Wise Money Managers?
Posted by: Max7777 (IP Logged)
Date: January 7, 2009 08:35PM

"We at GuruFocus think that Gurus' portfolios are great sources for idea generation. But that is only the beginning of your research.."

TRUE. Any other way would be VERY risky and rather stupid. We all need to first understand why a guru made an investment and do we agree with it. Does it make sense to you given the numbers you expect, but these guru portfolio picks do narrow the candidates a lot and probably improves our odds, which is great.

"The path should be: 1. Guru portfolios and proven strategies (magic formula, Undervalued predictable companies etc) for idea generation "

Gurufocus, please keep in mind that Guru portfolios is why we all come here. I love this site and appreciate what you are offering us, an easy access to the the true investments of some great minds. Lets keep it focus on this concept of Guru portfolios, that is what we need, as the formulas never work in the long term.

I feel there is a long way before we should use the term proven strategies for "Magic Formula" or "Undervalued predictable companies" Magic Formula is an interesting concept and points out the importance of Return on Equity something both Buffett and interestingly Navellier (growth quant guy) have been saying for years, but Magic Formula would have been killing you in the last few years. ROE is important but not alone or even a with reverse PE. You need much more to have a good ROI.

DCF calculator is again a great concept, but the answers it gives you will depend on the data you put in, and that can only be as good as the prediction you are able to make about future data, you need to predict. So if you can predict well you get correct answers, if the company has a surprise next year, your prediction will not be correct and your results will be wrong. You can probably see where our eyeballs go on your site, it is not that we do not know you offer the other goodies but the portfolios is what we want.

So please give us more great Gurus with proven track records like Grantham (who runs 100 Billion and had a positive 2008), Tuddor Jones, Kenneth Griffin (who made 20% all the years Berkowitz was making 10% ROI, but bad 2008), or Bill Gates Portfolio or Carlos Slim Helu - (The value investor of Latin America, he truly loves value), Li Ka-Shing (The Buffett of Asia). Give us more portfolios please.

and also we need more info on existing gurus like option data that affects what we see in the portfolio right now. Sorry about my on going rant but I love this site and want to see more of what we come here for.





Guru Discussed: Bruce Berkowitz: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
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Re: Where Are The Wise Money Managers?
Posted by: gurufocus (IP Logged)
Date: January 7, 2009 08:44PM

Thakn you for your suggestions, Max! As we said in other threads, we are working on the option data, and we will review the Guru list, may suspend some and add some more.

By the way, regarding to Jeremy Grantham, last time we looked, his stock portfolio is about $25 billion, and has close to 1000 stocks, with quite high turnover. That's why we did not add him. But that might be a mistake. What happened in 2008 proved that he is among the best.

We will add him in.



Guru Discussed: Bruce Berkowitz: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
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Re: Where Are The Wise Money Managers?
Posted by: Amit Chokshi (IP Logged)
Date: January 8, 2009 06:36AM

batbeer - your questions regarding what other states are thinking abou doing is just speculation, can you really know? and what's the downside if other states, NY for example, find somehing fishy. Where there's smoke there's fire and I've done the same thing you've done with previous investments "these guys have nothing to gain, let's assume we use all the cash we generate to settle and stock x is a value" but I am justsaying from my experience, these things never turn out as quickly as expected. They end up being DRAGGED along for years and as I said where there's smoke there's fire so all of a sudden more bad news turns up over and over.

Secondly, the books are not available. Go here [idea.sec.gov] and please show me an up to date 10-Q. The most recent 10-Q was for Q3 07 and it looks like those figures may all be subject to restatement because of this FL fiasco. You're operating in a total black hole, it's all guessing here.

Maybe at $13-$14 WCG is "safer" but Berkowitz plunged into this in Q108, when the stock was like $30-60 per share and even back then had NO RECENT 10-K. And sure enough since that time WCG was unable to get its audited numbers out, now faces a refinancing risk since they breached their covenants with Wachovia so WCG hired GS to help with refinancing facility which comes due in 4-5 months, and they also faced the threat of delisting by the NYSE.

I have no opinion on the stock, but I've seen this song play out before, I have taken the Berkowitz/Pabrai approach inthe past to other distressed ideas and whenevr there's some gov't investigation, lawsuits, and no legit numbers, that's like a slamdunk burn my money for me situation.



Guru Discussed: Bruce Berkowitz: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
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Re: Where Are The Wise Money Managers?
Posted by: Dr. Paul Price (IP Logged)
Date: January 8, 2009 07:16AM

Dizzy,

Once again you tell us why others' views are worthless without sharing any of your own insights.

What are YOU buying or selling?



Guru Discussed: Bruce Berkowitz: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
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Re: Where Are The Wise Money Managers?
Posted by: batbeer2 (IP Logged)
Date: January 8, 2009 02:05PM

Secondly, the books are not available.

The (audited) books are available. If you can't see them you are not looking in the right places. If you don't trust them that is another matter.

what's the downside if other states, NY for example, find somehing fishy.

THAT is speculation.

Here is a profitable business, a fact.
No charges have been brought to bear, a fact.
Earnings are noncyclical and growing, a fact.
It is trading at ~1 x FCF, a fact
It has a decent balance sheet, a fact
Q3 2008 books are there for all to see, and audited, a fact
WCG is in technical default a fact.
on part of it's debt
a full 130 mil or so of it's total debt.
There was a FBI raid in 2007, a fact.
Government actually benefits from not killing WCG. It is a low cost provider. An opinion ;-)

I submit that anyone betting on this company going out of business any time soon, is speculating.

Do you honestly think the statutory filings are less valuable than SEC filings ?
Are assets unknown to the SEC worthless ?



Guru Discussed: Bruce Berkowitz: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
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Re: Where Are The Wise Money Managers?
Posted by: batbeer2 (IP Logged)
Date: January 8, 2009 02:17PM

Just in case anyone actually dares to look at the numbers here's a link.

[ir.wellcare.com]

The florida report, audited by Deloite, is particularly interesting some of the facts mentioned above are in there for anyone willing to read.

I cannot directly asses the impect of the as yet undisclosed charges but if the impact were such that WCG is a dead man walking, Florida should have moved by now. Else they will have some job explaining their actions till now.

================================================
Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash. - George S. Patton



Guru Discussed: Bruce Berkowitz: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
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