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Head to Head Battle of HR Outsourcing Providers - Paychex (PAYX) vs. Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Posted by: Margin of Safety (IP Logged)
Date: January 23, 2012 03:01PM
Paychex is a market leader in payroll, tax, benefits, retirement, and HR services market for small and medium enterprises. Almost 82% of its clients are micro entities with less than 20 employees. Its services include payroll processing, payroll tax administration services, employee payment services, insurance services, retirement services administration, regulatory compliance services (new-hire reporting and garnishment processing), Paychex HR Solutions, eServices, and miscellaneous other human resource services and products. The company reports its operations in one segment, of which payroll services have the highest share.
The Company was formed in 1979 in and is currently headed by Martin Mucci as the president and CEO. Paychex follows a tight executive compensation policy, which ranges below the industry average. Its main competition comes from Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and a host of smaller players at national, regional, and local levels. The online marketplace offers its own set of rivals.
Growth and Performance
The long term revenue trend is characterized by an overall growth of 9.1% with a sharp decline during the recession. Paychex entered in the negative zone in fiscal year 2010 with a rebound in fiscal year 2011 that almost set off the previous year decline. Payroll being the dominant segment, the key performance metrics for the Company is checks per client (number of payroll checks processed for each client), which was affected by the contraction in customer base during recession when several small and medium entities went out of business and new initiatives were minimal. In terms of revenue per employee and net income per employee, Paychex stacks up well against the competition. Zero debt combined with above average returns further highlights its financial strength as indicated by the table below.
Paychex is a regular payer of dividends with a high payout ratio, averaging 88.3% in last three years. This rate may become unsustainable considering the challenging marketing conditions and the company’s own requirements to fuel future growth. Though the quarterly dividends increased by $0.01 to $0.32 per share in second quarter fiscal year 2012, the payout ratio came down to 78.8%. The EPS trend chart below clearly indicates the impact of the recent recession on the Company’s earnings and the rebound in fiscal year 2011. As per the consensus estimates, revenues for fiscal year 2012 are expected to be around $2,223.6-$2,251.2 million, while fiscal year 2013 revenues are expected between $2,330.9 and $2,476.6 million. EPS is likely to be $1.49-$1.53 for fiscal year 2012 and $1.58-$1.69 for fiscal year 2013. Five-year growth forecast for the Company is 9.5%.
Long-term Strategy and Vision
Paychex operates in a highly competitive environment, where its rivals range from small online players to large and established organizations. The company has targeted the small and micro-level customers that remain largely out of the ambit of big players. Paychex beats the competition from smaller players by leveraging its infrastructure to provide a comprehensive set of services under one roof, which may not be feasible for a number of small competitors. Almost 95% of its clients use the payroll tax administrative services, while approximately 79% use the employee payment services, clearly indicating an overlap of services for a large section of clients. The company also benefits from its existing customer based across various industries, averaging out the impact of downturns associated with business cycles of different industries. High switching costs for the customers and its core competency in payroll processing provides durable competitive advantage to Paychex.
The company is taking proactive steps to safeguard its future market position in the form of service diversification and inorganic growth. The acquisition of SurePayroll in early 2011 implies access to an existing client base of more than 30,000 small & medium businesses for Paychex and a service platform which offers an alternative to its own services. This will further help Paychex make inroads in a new segment of clients, who prefer self-servicing and like to go mobile.
The recession taught Paychex some important lessons in customer diversification. A client base of predominantly micro-level organizations leaves the company vulnerable to low economic cycles when these entities are among the first ones to go out of business, contract, or resort to extreme cost-cutting measures. Revenues dropped from double digit growth in pre-recession period to 0.8% in fiscal year 2009 and -3.9% in fiscal year 2010. In fiscal year 2010, Paychex brought in some important pricing, packaging, and internal sales service enhancements in the high margin Major Market Services (MMS) group that caters to large clients. Another key initiative taken by the company recently is the acquisition of ePlan Services in mid-2011 to expand its existence in plan 401(k) services. ePlan adds administrative services portfolio for more than 4,000 Defined Contribution 401(k) plans to the company’s existing services to almost one-tenth of the 401(k) plans.
Automatic Data Processing
Automatic Data Processing is one of the world’s largest outsourcing companies in the world. With a client list of approximately 570,000 businesses of different sizes, the Company is comparable to 564,000-strong customer base of Paychex. Automatic Data Processing offers similar services as Paychex, structured around three primary segments. Of which, Employer Services remains the dominant segment with roughly 70% contribution to the revenue, while Professional Employer Organization and Dealer Services contribute approximately 15% each.
Growth and Performance
In the long term, Automatic Data Processing has registered a growth of 3.5% with fluctuations year-on-year. The company divested its less profitable Brokerage Services Group business in fiscal year 2007. During recession, the revenues growth was severely affected, plunging to approximately 1%. fiscal year 2011 was a year of recovery when the impact of improving economy and streamlining business activities became apparent. Automatic Data Processing fairs almost equally well as Paychex on the debt front with a debt-equity ratio of 0.01 against the zero debt position of Paychex. The industry debt equity ratio is 0.4. Comparing the table below with Paychex, it is clear that Paychex is a clear winner in terms of returns. ROE for both the companies indicates their inherent strength, while on other metrics Automatic Data Processing is somewhat an underperformer as per the industry standards. The Company leads in terms of revenues generated per employee, while Paychex indicates better cost management as reflected in its higher net income per employee.
The EPS trend in the long-term is unstable for both the companies with the impact of recession clearly visible. However, Automatic Data Processing is generating much higher earnings per share in absolute terms. The company is also returning money to its shareholders in the form of repurchases and dividends. In second quarter fiscal year 2011, it increased its quarterly dividends by $0.02 to $0.36 per share. The average payout ratio of Automatic Data Processing in the last three years has been at a comfortable level of approximately 54%, which is a big advantage over Paychex. The retained earnings leave a greater room for strategic investments and growth. The consensus analyst estimate for Automatic Data Processing’s revenues for fiscal year 2012 is in the range $10.6-$10.8 billion, while EPS is expected near $2.71-$2.82. The five-year growth is expected to be 10.3%.
Stocks Discussed: PAYX, ADP,