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Forum List » Value Ideas and Strategies Share and discuss value investing ideas and investing strategies.  
Facebook ($FB): It’s Not All About Revenues
Posted by: Intelligent Speculator
(IP Logged)
Date: May 11, 2012 07:03AM
Everyone knows it, I’m a big believer in Facebook, in its stock FB, and where it will lead its users, employees and investors. Facebook seems to be increasingly polarizing as its IPO approaches. Many see the biggest and most obvious sign that we are back in the a tech bubble while others such as myself think that while very risky, it:s still a great investment opportunity. I think there are plenty of arguments that are very solid reasons to think twice about buying $FB. Many others however are poor ones. Today I wanted to discuss one useless stat that has been coming up over and over: “Google revenue – $40 billion; market capitalization $200 billion (plus $40 billion of cash). Facebook revenue $4 billion; market capitalization $100 billion” – ZeroHedge It makes a great headline, but really? Microsoft (MSFT) makes $70B in revenues per year, less than twice Google’s but is worth nearly 3 times more. Does that Microsoft a bargain? Or maybe Yahoo (YHOO) with a market cap of nearly $20B with revenues of $5B. Want an even better one? Research in Motion (RIMM) has revenues about half of Google (GOOG) but a market cap of $7B….3.5% of Google!! I understand if you need to stop reading for a few minutes while you go load up on $RIMM…. it trades at a tiny P/E too:) Let’s Get Serious!!!Judging a stock with those 2 numbers is ridiculous. It might make a good headline but it’s a solid way to make investments. If you want to knock Facebook,there are plenty of good arguments to be made (recent revenues and profits decline, competition, lack of growth opportunities, questionable motives by Zuckerberg who has nearly complete control, buying shares with no actual voting power, etc). Looking at revenues misses 2 major points:-Facebook has much higher margins than competitors -No investor is buying Facebook at these prices based on what it has done The second point is critical here. If Facebook is going to make revenues by selling small ads on the sidebars, generating growth by increasing its number of users and pageviews, then its valuation is insane. However, many such as myself think that Facebook will put more effort into a lot of different initiatives that will generate growth opportunities. Seeing half of Super Bowl ads point to a Facebook page has to tell you something about how much these companies believe in the value of their Facebook pages. How exactly those will be converted into dollars remains to be seen but that is why I am putting such a high value on Facebook. The company has barely tried to make profits so far. Instead, it has focused on building a strong user base, the best social network and strong relationships with corporations providing them with incredible value. Do you agree or am I off base? Don’t get me wrong, I’m more than willing to accept criticism on my Facebook outlook but please don’t base your judgment on some meaningless stat.
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