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Re Prem Watsa Doubled Down on Research-In-Motion Again
Posted by: alleygator (IP Logged)
Date: July 24, 2012 07:14PM

Mr. Watsa's 3rd biggest holding, Resolute Forest Products (formerly AbitibiBowater) is crashing almost as fast as RIMM. Must be a stressful time for him.



Guru Discussed: Prem Watsa: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: RIMM, FRFHF,
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Re Prem Watsa Doubled Down on Research-In-Motion Again
Posted by: ecotycoon (IP Logged)
Date: July 24, 2012 09:09PM

Good point Superguru the ultimate risk is 100%, but you need to take into account probability for the possible outcome. The chance that you loose 100% is quite small because they don't have debt for now, they have cash, trading cheaper than the liquidation value and the management is of really high integrity and honesty.

They made mistake, they realize that, they are now working to try to deliver the best outcome for their shareholder. The management is the one that have the most to lose from the possible outcome, good chance they will try to preserve as much as possible the value of the business and try to deliver the best for the long term.
Projecting good result into the future to make the valuation of a business is really risky because there is chance you will pay too much. On the opposite projecting bad result into the future is also wrong because it limit you from good opportunity at lower risk. Finance is not all about mathematic, finance on my point of view is not a science it's an art, understanding management behavior is quite important.

But still the risk is not 0%, the competition is quite tough in this sector and this is a big risk on that side. Better buy a reasonable portion of portfolio in RIM in order to avoid losing too much, averaging down if stock goes cheaper.




Guru Discussed: Prem Watsa: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: RIMM, FRFHF,
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Re Prem Watsa Doubled Down on Research-In-Motion Again
Posted by: AlbertaSunwapta (IP Logged)
Date: July 24, 2012 11:09PM

Academic talk of percentages of risk mean little. Final dollars lost equates to food not able to be put on the table. I.e. There's lots of value fish in the ocean so which is better, averaging down or holding fast but allocating new capital to another fundamentally equal value buy? As such, averaging down sometimes just saves one's sense of skill on exiting in a final bounce.

You have to wonder what Watsa saw back at above $20. And note that he's not loading up at current prices, only doubling up. His conviction is strong but clearly not absolute.



Guru Discussed: Prem Watsa: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: RIMM, FRFHF,
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Re Prem Watsa Doubled Down on Research-In-Motion Again
Posted by: mocheng (IP Logged)
Date: July 25, 2012 01:24PM

He has a seat on the board now.

RIMM h as 70 million active blackberry users in the world, and still selling like crazy in 2nd and 3rd world countries like crazy.

Hopefully BB10 will come out and smoke apple's ass, although i am also a AAPL investor., oh, they should just smoke nokia's ass



Guru Discussed: Prem Watsa: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: RIMM, FRFHF,
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Re Prem Watsa Doubled Down on Research-In-Motion Again
Posted by: Smmeddie (IP Logged)
Date: July 28, 2012 06:31AM

If you look at the institutional shareholders of RIM, you will see that Fairfax owns 15% of the company.



Guru Discussed: Prem Watsa: Current Portfolio, Stock Picks
Stocks Discussed: RIMM, FRFHF,
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