|New Threads Only:|
|New Threads & Replies:|
Forum List » Value Ideas and Strategies|
Share and discuss value investing ideas and investing strategies.
Seagate Technology (STX) Dividend Analysis
Posted by: The Dividend Guy Blog (IP Logged)
Date: July 23, 2012 08:06AM
For those who follow my dividend holdings, you probably noticed that I have sold ZWB and bought STX not so long ago. I’ve already shared my disappointment in ZWB and decided to move on quickly. When I sold ZWB, I was down by about 12% (loss of $251.38 after dividend payments). STX is almost getting this loss back after 6 weeks since the trade (I’m currently +$235 at the moment of writing this post). I wasn’t expecting to make a quick profit on this stock as I think I can get a lot more with Seagate Technology. Let me tell you how…
Seagate Technology (STX) Stock Description:Seagate Technology is the largest hard disk manufacturer with 35% in market share. Their range of production goes from desktop to laptop and from servers to workstations. STX has great expertise in storage data and includes backup system services and digital video recorders (DVRs). It is also present in online backup services. STX surely has a lot of competitors in this industry. The most important are Western Digital (WDC),Hitachi, Samsung, Toshiba and SanDisk.
Seagate Technology (STX) Stock Graph
Seagate Technology (STX) Ratios and Financial Info:
STX financial metrics are quite interesting. The dividend yield and dividend growth are pretty strong. Most of the dividend growth comes from the past 12 months when STX has adopted an aggressive dividend increase paired with a $2,5G stock repurchase plan. With such a low P/E ratio (6.15) and forward P/E ratio (around 2.9), we understand why STX is more interested in purchasing its own stocks. Their payout ratio is also quite reasonable and provides room for dividend increases in the future. The debt to capital ratio is quite low as well. Definitely, the present situation of the company looks good.
Seagate Technology (STX) Technical Analysis
STX is trading on a uptrend. Click here to get a free technical analysis report on STX.
Upcoming opportunities and dangers:While the current financial metrics around Seagate look great, the future is uncertain. There is a reason why the P/E ratio is so low; some investors believe in the death of the PC. The main problem for STX is similar to Intel’s. Both companies are leaders in their industry (hard drives and processors) but they are both directly related to PCs. Mobiles and tablets are lurking towards flash memory to store their data. The difference between hard drives and flash is huge. Hard drives include mechanical parts, use more power and flash drives are also less likely to break. On the other hand, flash memory is not as powerful as hard drives and is costly. So far, hard drives are also faster than flash technology. Unfortunately, you can bet that as technology advance, these disadvantages will disappear to the profit of a strong and faster flash drives. This is how Flash memory could eventually replace hard drives.
STX recently decreased its forecast for Q4 2012 in a similar way that Intel did after releasing strong results last week. However, both stocks rose on the day. This shows that the market knows about upcoming dangers but still believes that computer related companies are strong enough to evolve at the same speed as technology does. STX has made a few recent acquisitions in order to boost their cloud computing division. This is another growing market to develop.
Final Thoughts on Seagate Technology (STX)
I’ve bought STX for a few reasons. The first one was the low P/E ratio paired with a solid balance sheet. The company has a lot of cash to make acquisitions and develop other technologies in order to face flash memory future domination. I also believe that if STX continues to post strong results as they did in the last 18 months or so, investors will increase the P/E multiple for this company. I don’t expect a P/E ratio of 15 but I’m pretty sure it can reach 8-9. This would add a nice % to my investment return. In the meantime, the company is doing well presently and paying a strong dividend. This is enough to keep me waiting for a while.
The bet on STX is simple; I think they will continue to sell hard drives and that they are strong enough to evolve over time. On top of that there are 24 analysts following the stock and their average growth forecast is 30%. Not bad for a “supposedly dying” company?
Disclaimer: I’m long STX and sold my positions in ZWB a month ago.
Stocks Discussed: STX,
Disclaimers: GuruFocus.com is not operated by a broker, a dealer, or a registered investment adviser. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The gurus may buy and sell securities before and after any particular article and report and information herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article and report posted herein. In no event shall GuruFocus.com be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on GuruFocus.com, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, GuruFocus.com or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. The gurus listed in this website are not affiliated with GuruFocus.com, LLC. Stock quotes provided by InterActive Data. Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.