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Tom Brown: Is it a Bottom in Financial Stocks?
Posted by: gurufocus (IP Logged)
Date: July 24, 2008 08:26AM

One never knows until long after the fact, of course, when stock prices reach the exact top or bottom of a given cycle. And, besides, trying to pick precise tops and bottoms always turns out to be a pointless, unprofitable game. So don't even try.

Have I hedged myself sufficiently? Good. For, as it happens, I believe July 15, 2008 will turn out to be as good a date as any to mark the end of the long, painful bear market financial stocks have endured for the past 18 months. And more to the point, it marks the beginning of the greatest financial stock bull market in our lifetime, one that will be much broader than the bull market that began in 1990.

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Stocks Discussed: FHN,
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Re: Tom Brown: Is it a Bottom in Financial Stocks?
Posted by: adamcz (IP Logged)
Date: July 24, 2008 11:50AM

I don't like this guy based on this first impression. What's his long term record?


Stocks Discussed: FHN,
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Rating: 3.0/5 (2 votes)



Re: Tom Brown: Is it a Bottom in Financial Stocks?
Posted by: fireman (IP Logged)
Date: July 24, 2008 01:07PM

Yes or No. Big Banks: minus 12% from current price in average to FMV 'til Q4; Regional banks (wired to real-estate & consumer credit losses) - could be worst in Q4 than Q3. DOW at 11000 or S&P at 1250 probably is the bottom for *this* year. There's another 4 quarters to go according to the recession statistics in the past 30 years. The next 9-month final phase used to trigger the most selling pressures; anticipated major downtrends: Sep/Oct 08, 1st week of Jan 09, Mar/Apr 09, May-July 09 market bottom: DOW somewhere betw 9000-8000. Weak earnings in 2nd half of 2009. Mixed in 2010, Full Recovery of Real Estate: 2011, Bull Market: 2012-2013.


Stocks Discussed: FHN,
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Re: Tom Brown: Is it a Bottom in Financial Stocks?
Posted by: pshah19 (IP Logged)
Date: July 24, 2008 01:27PM

Brown posted this article on Seeking Alpha and was soundly lambasted by pretty good arguments against his 'facts'. And he has yet to respond even once to any of those comments.

This guy has been consistently wrong over the last 2 years at least on the financial sector. Remember First Marblehead and CCRT? Just another permabull that crawls out every quarter there is a sucker rally in financials.


Stocks Discussed: FHN,
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Rating: 3.7/5 (3 votes)



Re: Tom Brown: Is it a Bottom in Financial Stocks?
Posted by: biscosc (IP Logged)
Date: July 25, 2008 08:14AM

Past lousy performance is guarantee of future lousy performance. If you don't know this guys track record previous to the last few years you should probably do some research before you disregard everything he says.


Stocks Discussed: FHN,
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Rating: 2.0/5 (1 vote)





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