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Hit Another Home Run... This time with WMT
Posted by: vooch (IP Logged)
Date: November 17, 2009 10:25PM

Yesterday, it was disclosed Warren Buffett increased his stake in Wal-Mart (WMT).

WMT is the largest position in my portfolio.

I am so happy I hit another home run!

- Vooch



Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 1.7/5 (13 votes)



Re: Hit Another Home Run... This time with WMT
Posted by: gurufocus (IP Logged)
Date: November 17, 2009 10:48PM

What is your cost per share and how much do you think WMT's fair value is? Our DCF model gives a fair value of $65, only 18% of Margin of safety.


Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 4.5/5 (6 votes)



Re: Hit Another Home Run... This time with WMT
Posted by: vooch (IP Logged)
Date: November 17, 2009 11:20PM

I looked up the last 2 times I calculated Intrinsic Value for WMT:

4/12/09 $95.84/share

8/1/09 $117.47/share

These were my purchases across all accounts for 2009 for WMT:

8/3/09 $49.747537/share

8/5/09 $49.27/share (the big purchase)

8/6/09 $49.00/share

9/25/09 $49.725/share

Again, I think Buffett is paying less than 50 cents on the dollar (just like he did with BNI, recently).

- Vooch



Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 3.4/5 (5 votes)



Re: Hit Another Home Run... This time with WMT
Posted by: gurufocus (IP Logged)
Date: November 18, 2009 06:02AM

Could you please share how you came up with the numbers?

Do you plan to hold it until it reaches the fair value or you will "active value" trade it?


Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 3.8/5 (6 votes)



WMT is NOT worth $117+
Posted by: Dr. Paul Price (IP Logged)
Date: November 18, 2009 06:07AM

To say that long-term intrinsic value changed by 22.57% between April 12 and August 1 shows how ludicrous your technique for measuring value has to be.

True value could not change that radically in so short a time with any legitimate system. No company the size of WMT could have its real value change that much in 3.6 months.

Your $117.47 number would be an unlikely 30x next fiscal year's consensus estimate. WMT hasn't traded at that a valuation since 2002.


*********************************************************************************

Claiming to have 'Hit a Home Run' simply because Buffett bought ignores his huge holdings in many losers like MCO and USG. Your expected target seems way too optimistic.

I like WMT and have written it up here as a good buy in the $40's but your claim of a major victory seems premature with the shares less than 10% above your cost basis in a bull market that has taken many other stocks up much more since your purchase dates.

[www.BeatingBuffett.com]


Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 4.1/5 (11 votes)



Re: Hit Another Home Run... This time with WMT
Posted by: tkervin (IP Logged)
Date: November 18, 2009 08:49AM

Doc pretty clearly summed up my view also........an early inning infield single.........but much better than a strike out!


Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 4.0/5 (4 votes)



Re: Hit Another Home Run... This time with WMT
Posted by: commodity (IP Logged)
Date: November 18, 2009 09:22AM

Anything else trading at a big discount?

What is your ROI and for how long ?

Your 2008 return ?



Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 4.6/5 (5 votes)



Re: Hit Another Home Run... This time with WMT
Posted by: Gangstarr (IP Logged)
Date: November 18, 2009 09:37AM



Vooch:

I'll sell you all of my holdings at your estimate of their intrinsic value anytime.


Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 4.6/5 (9 votes)



Re: Hit Another Home Run... This time with WMT
Posted by: Sivaram (IP Logged)
Date: November 18, 2009 11:11AM

vooch Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Again, I think Buffett is paying less than 50 > cents on the dollar (just like he did with BNI, > recently). > >

How do you justify that BNSF is 50% below intrinsic value? Can you explain a bit?

---------
Check out my investing blog - contrarian with a macro focus and a value investing tilt: Can Turtles Fly? A Contrarian Investing Blog.


Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 2.7/5 (3 votes)



Re: Hit Another Home Run... This time with WMT
Posted by: abecfilms (IP Logged)
Date: November 18, 2009 03:35PM

Vooch: I'm impressed.

Could you detail a little about how much you added during the 4th quarter vs. how much you already owned, and/or whether you had been buying it for the last year or for how long.

Where did your Wal-mart purchase fit into your total purchases during the last quarter or two, in terms of size/portfolio allocation, etc.

I would also be interested to know if this has happened to you (materially) with Buffet previously on a demonstrated non-random basis, and if you could give some examples.

I also would be interested to hear about this kind of thing from others on this board - - have you repeatedly made material purchases/changes to your portfolio simultaneously with Buffet excluding BNI (I assume everybody owned that.) or other similar examples

I believe WMT also was a Buffet advised purchase, and not purely a Lou Simpson deal due to its large size, but then maybe Lou is getting to make bigger bets these days.

Any and all feedback appreciated. I know I am asking for somewhat confidential info. Thanks.



Stocks Discussed: WMT,
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Rating: 1.8/5 (5 votes)



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