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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: October 11, 2012 09:22AM

Todays presentation :

[url]http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-2D0WMQ/2074476913x0x604773/91d68f22-d086-4f31-92e2-f089ded3f296/2012_10%20Exploration%20Conf%20Call%20[Final].pdf[/url]


Looks good, they do like Scotia prospect.

30% Geologic Chance of Success.

I had heard they were looking for a rig even now, this is confirmed it seems as they are looking at appraisal drilling end of 2013 going on until next round of exploratory drilling in late 2014.

Perhaps only 12 months without any drilling in the South Falklands now, after Loligo proved the hydrocarbons are there.

Very active - non stop drilling and appraising program from late 2013 onwards for years.........


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: October 11, 2012 09:44AM

Highlights of the broadcast (you can listen yourself on the link from Nobles website) :

Falklands.

They describe it as a "highlight” and "potential game changer".

It will provide a 40% increase in their global net acreage.

30 leads in lower cretaceous alone.

Noble contractually obliged to drill two more wells.

Will become operator in north part of the acrege in March 2013, southern part by March 2014.

They will have TWO seismic boats active in 2013. 1,500-2,500 sq miles of 3D.

Area offers early entry scale of, among others, Angola, GoM, Med and Norweigan North Sea.

AVO will be an important technical tool (one of their expertise).

They are hoping that Scotia will be a discovery, and they can use AVO to derisk further plays.

Timing of investment spending fits well with cashflow

Above ground risk v managemable. Sohistoicted regulation and financial terms positive.

During Jurassic FI attached to southern Africa. Thick wedges of deepwatrer tubidite sand.

Reservoir rocks proven by Darwin. Loligo proved working hydrocarbons system (gas) in northern acreage.

Scotia P75-25 145-960m barrels of oil, CoS at 30%. Primary risk is containment. Same rig as drilled Loligo “discovery”

If Scotia success, will have rigs drilling nearly continuously from late 2013.

Development drilling would begin in 2015. First production 2018/19'

Similar development plan as Noble carried out in equatorial guinea


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: October 12, 2012 02:42AM

I guess from Noble's statement of "we will appraise from late 2013 if Scotia has oil" means that the new drill ship they are taking for 3 years could well be redirected to the Falklands if Scotia strikes oil, if not it goes East Med ? Certainly an option for them now, and for sure if Scotia strikes oil then it becomes top priority for Noble owing to the massive upside potential.

The 3 year contract for the Atwood Advantage drillship just announced end Sept, and then yesterdays plans showing non-stop appraisal and exploratory drilling for 3 years in the Falklands, if Scotia strikes oil.... sort of ties in does it not......

[finance.yahoo.com]

HOUSTON, Sept. 27, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL) today announced that it has entered into a 36 month contract with a subsidiary of Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW) for a new build drillship to support its global new ventures efforts in deepwater exploration and development. The agreement demonstrates the Company's commitment to global offshore exploration.

The drillship Atwood Advantage is currently under construction by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., Ltd. in South Korea. Delivery is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2013 when the rate of $584,000 per day will be initiated. The dual BOP stacks, enhanced offline capabilities, 12,000 feet water depth/40,000 feet drill depth ratings and the increased mobility will add flexibility to Noble Energy's global exploration program. ................


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: October 24, 2012 05:11AM

My timeline is :

Loligo progress was 3rd August spud - 10th Sept at 3900 metres. Loligo mud line was at 1381 metres.

So, 38 days the average rate was 3900 depth less 1381 mud line divided by 38 days = 66 metres per day average rate including casing runs etc...

Scotia spud was 25th September. Mud line at Scotia is 1762 meters.

Target is circa 4900 meters and TD at 5198 meters.

Based on 66 meters per day from the 1762 meters mud line.

Target will be hit in 47 days (4900 - 1762 / 66 = 47.5 days)

TD at 52 days (5198 - 1762 / 66 = 52 days)

47 days from 25th September is Sun 11th Nov. 52 days is Fri 16th Nov.

So week commencing Monday 19th November should see "initial wireline results" later in that week, IMO.

Casing runs will take longer with a deeper well, so its all very rough but should not be far out.


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: October 25, 2012 06:37PM

News out. Guess TD will now be circa 1st of Dec and not 17th Nov with the delay.

3D in the north from late Nov and in the southern licenses from later Q1 2013.

Both northern and southern licenses extended.

2 week delay on Scotia now due to BOP issue.

[www.investegate.co.uk]

.


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: October 25, 2012 06:39PM

Noble are paying 60% of this well costs for their farm in. Edison are paying 25% and FOGL just 15%, so the cost implications for FOGL are minimal.

Given the quickness in finishing Loligo this might mean FOGL's cash balance at finishing Scotia could be 119m US$ and not the 120m US$ I expected post Loligo drill finishing quick.


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: October 26, 2012 03:04AM



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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: October 26, 2012 08:33PM

25% to 26% is about right, after claiming back via tax breaks the exploration and other costs involved.

[en.mercopress.com]

.


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: October 31, 2012 10:52PM

Gulf Keystone has a net of 4.3% of their oil (WI/PSC/KRG special tax). Taking into account a 25% recovery factor (high for the location) and taking their 13 billion barrels OIP figure this gives :

13 billion barrels OIP with 25% recovery factor = 3.25 billion and then times 4.3% = 140 million barrels is the net barrels to GKP.

GKP market cap is say 1.7 billion pounds (now at 188p a share) and net take is 140 million barrels of oil. So presently they are valued at 12.14 pounds per barrel (excluding corporate tax on profits)

-------------------------------------

Scotia P50, if it strikes oil, the big if, would be net FOGL of 400 million barrels of oil (from OIP of 1.212 billion barrels. Royalty is 9% so that would reduce this down to 364 million barrels (excluding corporate tax on profits).

It becomes apparent immediately that GKP have 140 million barrels net and FOGL could have 364 million barrels net using the same metrics (work in and royalties/special tax).

FOGL also has far bigger follow on leads than GKP has, 30 billion OIP in follow on leads if Scotia is good.

If you were to value each FOGL barrel on the same basis as the "present" value of a GKP barrel that would be 364,000,000 x 12 pounds = 4.368 billion pound market cap for FOGL if Scotia comes in and is appraised.

So taking a whopping 50% discount for FOGL on the GKP present valuation per barrel (appraising would have to be done), you get a 2 billion market cap for FOGL, or 10 times the current price, just for Scotia.

That would also equate the same way utilising a standard 8 US$ x 400 million barrels = 2 billion pounds market cap.

RKH achieved a price of US$4.69 per 2C barrel of oil for Sea Lion. This was considered a low ball offer by many, the reasons could be :

1/ Oil is waxy, sub 30 API.
2/ Thin and layered sands in many places at Sea Lion makes Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) more difficult.
3/ High water saturation is some areas again will make EOR difficult.
4/ RKH had no farm in partners and no funds to develop - backs against the wall stuff.

For FOGL.

1/ Any oil is expected to be circa 30 to 32 API at this location.
2/ Based on Toroa and Darwin the mid-Cretaceous sands appear to be thick and of good quality, singular sandstone bodies, not layered like the Tertiary (Loligo and Stebbing).
3/ FOGL have farm in partners in place, both multi-billion market cap (EDF and Noble).

The 4.69 US$ value is not applicable to FOGL, imo, owing to the prevalent conditions that forced what I call a low ball offer from PMO for Sea Lion.

Some people would argue that 8US$ in the ground is too high, I think not given the follow on leads and the major partners in bed already - the follow ons from Scotia is literally 30 billion barrels OIP and likely more once 3D is done and more prospects found and firmed up.

Its all speculation and fantasy stuff until the Scotia result is in. The chance of success is obviously less than the chance of failure. However, should the drill come in with oil then there will be a serious rerating of the share price.

Noble has already intimated that if Scotia strikes oil they will divert one rig down to the Falklands and commence (drilling to start Q4 2013) a multi-year non stop appraise and explore campaign, 365 days a year, multi year non stop drilling. With over 10 billion barrels of oil recoverable in follow on "Scotia type" leads (30 billion OIP) and possibly even more when 3D is done and processed - you can see why.

It could be a duster, but for those who wish to dream a little, there is no better prospect on the market for big time re-rating in the months ahead, if you are willing to take high risk you might get a big reward, with the downside protection being cash leftover of 40p a share if its a duster).


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: November 8, 2012 07:58AM



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