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Forum List » Small Cap, Spin-Off, Risk Arbitrage Share value ideas with market cap of a few billion or less. Spin-off, and risk arbitrage plays.  
Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes
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Date: November 22, 2012 01:48AM
My guess to Scotia. One thing you will find is that gas stays close to source, oil migrates furthest away from source rock, albeit at a slow rate of progress. The target at Scotia is sat right above the source rock. My honest assessment would be, as I said before, that the top seal (was not that questionable) is good, and this has trapped gas in the upper levels. However, the lateral seal (the sideways seal) has failed (the big risk for Scotia) and the oil has migrated away to somewhere else on the license area (hopefully reservoired). This would leave an area of gas in the upper section where its managed to get trapped as its above the side seal level, but the main area is devoid of oil accumulation as its leaked away and migrated off somewhere else, maybe leaving some traces. Always remember oil migrates furthest away from the source rock but very slowly. Gas moves quick but travels not so far. This would be a decent result for FOGL, proving oil generation and opening the doors to 3D seismic and then more drilling in 2014 with a good chance of success. However short term it would not be the super result that many punters are looking for - who want a major oil discovery and will sell pretty quick a gas discovery RNS as they will not be holding FOGL through thick and thin until next drilling, they will be selling and buying back in 2014. Just imo - good luck !!
Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes
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Date: November 22, 2012 01:51AM
I am now taking a break from the boards for a while. If you want to find me you can do on Twitter @proselenes
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