New Threads Only:  Add to Google Reader or Homepage
New Threads & Replies:  Add to Google Reader or Homepage
Forums are for serious investors only. GuruFocus Forum Rules.

Forum List » Small Cap, Spin-Off, Risk Arbitrage
Share value ideas with market cap of a few billion or less. Spin-off, and risk arbitrage plays.
New Topic
Goto Thread: PreviousNext
Goto: Forum ListMessage ListNew TopicLog In
Current Page:4 of 12
Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: April 24, 2012 09:55PM

[www.oilvoice.com]

FoxDavies Daily Monitor - Borders and Southern, Falkland Oil and Gas and Aurelian Oil & Gas

..........................

Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL LN, 91.25p, 2.7%) - Concept Proven:

Today's BOR LN results will boost south Falkland's players, such as FOGL as it diminishes one of the key risks associated with the SFB- that it is a viable hydrocarbon basin with mature source rock. With this news, we are raising our target price from 250p to 275p and reiterating our BUY recommendation.

Falklands - That Thick Silver Lining Still has a Cloud…: Today's news that there is a viable hydrocarbon province in the shape of the SFB benefits everybody, not just the players in that basin, but those in the North Falkland's Basin like Desire, Rockhopper and Argos. With the prospects of the SFB being a viable commercial discovery, there will soon be a claim to have critical mass, and the risks associated with the development of the regional as a whole will lift all the players in the region.

It will also raise the tempo in the fight for the Falklands between Argentina and the UK, which given the recent nationalisation of YPF was a shameless populist driven event, there will be little holding the government back from whipping up another fervour over the Falklands.

But here is the rub. YPF's nationalisation (the "Nationalisation") actually helps the Falklands. Prior to the Nationalisation, Argentina had been indulged in its claims for the Falklands by its LatAm peers, even in the wake of PetroBras' licence revocation, despite what we have been led to believe was its compliance with the terms of the licence. However, the Nationalisation has attracted international condemnation, such that Argentina's next "cab of the rank," i.e. the Falklands, shall be used to make an example of it, which is good for the Falklands.


Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2012 06:49AM

[www.investorschronicle.co.uk]

.......IC VIEW:

The initial results from Darwin do at least confirm the presence of hydrocarbon-bearing structures within the South Falklands Basin, which provides a positive beat for UK explorers in the region - including our preferred southern basin play, Falkland Oil & Gas . And, ironically, the recent appropriation of Repsol’s stake in YPF by the Argentine government could perversely make it easier to attract farm-in partners to the South Atlantic, as oil and gas companies - or at least western ones - may now be less bothered about upsetting Buenos Aires on matters of regional sovereignty........


Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: April 26, 2012 01:21AM

Great news that BOR got their placing away with ease it seems, and at a good price.

[www.investegate.co.uk]

There are a number of things to consider here. Firstly that the South Falklands is now going to come into everyones radar as a potential "final massive frontier".

Before the Toroa drill (a 3.7% CoS well) it was not believed by many that thick high quality sandstones were present in the South, as fabled by BOR and FOGL and many geo's. It seemed to good to be true that huge thick sandstones were down there and so there were many billion and multi-billion recoverable size prospects there.

Well, the huge thick sandstones got proven beyond a doubt with Darwin. Tick that box.

The bigger point of the skeptics was that there was no proven working hydrocarbon system there in the south - Toroa a 3.7% CoS well drilled in what would be the edge swampy area helped their case - ignoring the small CoS this well had and it was the only one possible to drill with the shallow water Ocean Guardian rig back then.

Well, the proven hydrocarbon system was proven beyond a doubt with Darwin. Tick that box.

With proven huge sandstone reservoirs with good porosity and with a proven working hydrocarbon system there its easy to see why BOR got the placing done with ease, and its easy to see going forward that those that once dismissed it as all fantasy are now going to appreciate that the South Falklands is potentially an area with many "world class" size prospects there.

The downside of the placing, for some, will be that it highlights the lack of interest in the North Falklands Basin. ARG and DES have been unable to raise funds and yet BOR do so with ease. FOGL has raised money in 2012, but DES and ARG have not seen the interest.

A major thing to consider here is, taking for example Liz and Sea Lion - what you see in the North Falklands is lots of thin stacked sands. If you look into the net pay figure of Sea Lion you will see lots of 1m, 3m, 6m, 2m, 4m, 1m sands that together make the net pay figure, but in reality are lots and lots of thin sands. The problem with that is that it makes development much more expensive, firstly as you have to drill a lot more wells to capture all the thin sands in their best places - so wells to be drilled goes upwards - and secondly it make EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) much more difficult - if you can imagine trying to inject each of these thin sands with water and trying not to make them leak into each other and all over the place. Compare that to the South where you have hugely thick sandstone - which makes production drilling very simple and as well as EOR.

RKH should secure their farm out, but I think DES and ARG will have to sit back and just wait until at some time their potential might become attractive - but it could be a long time away - or they have to offer it and cut price levels to get someone else interested.

The world will soon wake up and smell the coffee with regards to the South Falklands Basin potential - and expect BOR and FOGL to become very hot sought after things.



Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: May 4, 2012 06:56AM

I-phone/pad link to FOGL IR Briefcase :

[itunes.apple.com]

.


Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: May 5, 2012 08:02PM



Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: May 6, 2012 09:05AM

Big interest in FOGL from India, but the Ministry of External Affairs has stopped ONGC taking a 35% stake in FOGL's licenses - for now - just stalled for the moment.

[www.sunday-guardian.com]

MEA stalls ONGC plan to invest in Falkland

According to ONGC sources, the ministry is concerned about the potential negative fallout on diplomatic relations with the Latin American region.

OUR CORRESPONDENT NEW DELHI | 6th May

India's external affairs minister S.M. Krishna. The external affairs ministry has stalled ONGC’s proposal to buy a stake in oil assets in Falkland Islands.

.M. Krishna's external affairs ministry has stalled ONGC's proposal to buy a stake in oil assets in far away Falkland Islands. According to ONGC sources, the ministry is concerned about the potential negative fallout on diplomatic relations with the Latin..........................................


Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: May 7, 2012 09:44PM



Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: May 9, 2012 04:58AM

[www.cnbc.com]

Goldman Sachs raises Falkland Oil And Gas to buy

Published: Wednesday, 9 May 2012 | 3:30 AM ET

May 9 (Reuters) - Falkland Oil And Gas Ltd :

* Goldman Sachs raises Falkland Oil And Gas Ltd to buy from neutral

* Goldman Sachs raises Falkland Oil And Gas Ltd price target to 212P
from 93.60P

.


Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: May 18, 2012 08:39AM

[www.sharecast.com]

Broker snap: Merchant Secs initiates Falkland Oil at buy
Fri 18 May 2012

FOGL - Falkland Oil & Gas Ltd.

................ LONDON (SHARECAST) - In a research note issued this morning analysts at Merchant Securities initiate coverage of Falklands Oil and Gas with a buy recommendation and a 400p price target.

For them this company, “holds the best exploration acreage in the Falkland Islands because its prospects are larger than elsewhere, yet we believe the exploration risks are not greater than elsewhere in the region.”

More specifically, they believe that the Loligo prospect is likely to be a condensate prospect, just as the Borders & Southern discovery at Darwin was a condensate discovery. They have modelled the prospect based on their estimate that, if successful, it could produce 2.0bn barrels of condensate, which compares to FOGL’s estimate of 4.7bn barrels of oil equivalent. Loligo is likely to commence drilling around the end of June or early July 2012 with results announced about 8 weeks later.

As well, they anticipate a ‘pre-drill catalyst’ in that they expect that prior to drilling Loligo the company will farm out 25% of its licence areas to a currently undisclosed party pursuant to a farm-in option agreement. FOGL would receive $60m in cash if the option is exercised in accordance with the base case of the agreement...........


Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: May 22, 2012 05:27PM

Todays AGM notes thanks to faldiz on III

........There were 4 or so people I recognised at the AGM, and then may add their own notes. Here are the bits that interested me.

DARWIN
Good result. Proves Aptian working HC system. Game on for exploration. Possibly also a Jurassic source.

Likely to be 2-3 TCF of gas, 2 - 300m barrels of condensate. Sample could go on a chartered cargo flight, at cost – or by sea in about 6 weeks. Delay is likely because BOR taking their time to think through implications for rest of their acreage. May or may not be stand alone commercial, depending on liquid content.

Darwin drilled the mid-cretaceous, but not the Springhill reservoirs.

5 or 6 Darwin look-alikes in FOGL licences, but structurally complex, and FOGL need 3D to define them. Some of these not as deeply buried, and may have oil.

Gas re-injection could be done at this depth, at a cost.

LOLIGO
Some form of HC now likely, question is what. Worst case would be fizz-gas (experts explain), which would be bad news, but unlikely, and would in any case gather at higher end of the reservoir, leaving room for better stuff below.

Likely, FOGL would test each reservoir as they drilled through it, and may well issue RNSs after each – because whether good or bad, it is price sensitive. No guarantees, though.

GAS
FLNG ships are now being built that could deal with SFB waters, but development using these are 15 years off. However, on-shore, or FLNG in a sheltered bay may be realistic sooner, but would need of order 6TCF.

Geothermal model confirmed by Darwin result – as hot as thought. Oil window at 3-4km burial. Toroa was an anomaly which made temperatures appear lower than model. Gas was predicted at Darwin (by FOGL), condensate a nice surprise.

FARM-IN
Hopefully resolved, if so news in coming month. Did not talk to majors – they take too long for current need, and would want control. Later, in success case. Farm-in partner not the Indian company. FOGL have had 8 or 9 medium sized European and US companies through their data room. 3 or 4 still showing interest.

RIG
FOGL being kept aware of teething problems. These are being sorted out.

Possibility of FOGL taking 3rd slot (5th over all), in the success case. 5th option lapsed formally in May of last year, but Ocean did offer it again earlier this year, at a cost that neither BOR of FOGL were willing to pay, ahead of Darwin results. May not be possible in time, as rig is contracted to Total from early 2013.

3D
Likely BOR and FOGL will share a survey ship for southern licences. FOGL may in addition survey northern licences. 4th quarter 2012, if so.

Follow-on drilling campaign would not be until end of 2013.


Stocks Discussed: FOGL.L,
Rate this post:

Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)



Current Page:4 of 12


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.

Please Login if you have an account or Create a Free Account if you don't
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
Free 7-day Trial
FEEDBACK