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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 8, 2012 01:54AM

Noble Energy and the Falklands, have a read what they say, link below :

[www.moneyam.com]

.


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 11, 2012 07:59AM

Not looking good for the Loligo well, looks like its going to be dry - nothing commercial.

Results of the well soon.



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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 12, 2012 10:48AM

Strong rebound today with volume, suggestions maybe the bottom target, Three Bears could be good and the upper 4 Loligo targets not good ? Who knows, not me.

If, and its only an IF, Three Bears were to be full of oil - would it suggest that with a very good top seal that the oil followed the arrows and also migrated horizontally into Nimrod and Vinson and not upwards into the upper 4 Loligo targets. (pic in link below)

Meaning Three Bears, Nimrod (ironic for CHAR holders) and Vinson have oil but top 4 Loligo targets are all dry, only the bottom is viable ?

Bit too much speculation for now really, what is needed is oil in Three Bears - then we can speculate as much as we like, else its going to be a duster perhaps.

[img853.imageshack.us]

.

Good luck all, its high risk stuff, never forget that.

.



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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 14, 2012 11:39PM



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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 15, 2012 08:16PM

. If you look at the Orange outline of Three Bears, the TS does seem to be touching the edges, which could indicate additional seismic work ongoing in relation to Three Bears. It did the same after the Darwin strike for BOR - which was for VSP. Now doing VSP could all be about learning more from your duster, but it does seem to be focused on Three Bears ??

This pic also highlights the location of the rig and the compromised position of this single drill, as its not about hitting thick net pay, its all about hitting 5 targets, in whatever was possible, with a single drill trajectory.

[imageshack.us]

Three Bears is the Orange outline in this map, quite a big size, P50 recoverable estimates of 1.5 billion barrels potential - oil being API18 to API 24 range.

Owing to the sub optimal well location (trying to hit 5 targets in 1 drill - as opposed to trying to hit a single target in its sweet spot) of this drill, if they hit any net pay over 10 meters I would be a happy bunny - mind you, I would be happy if they just hit some gas/oil, that would prove generation and migration and bring the whole East Falklands Basin firmly into play and no longer speculative.



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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 17, 2012 01:17AM

Huge gas discovery just announced at Loligo !! :)


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 17, 2012 01:17AM

Quick comment. Excellent news to get so much potential pay in such a compromised well location - with T5 even better than expected pre-drill.

This well was not about hitting net pay, it was about drilling all the targets to sample them all, and it did that.

The appraisal wells in the next drilling round, after 3D seismic is done early next year will be all about hitting the thick net pay.

With the sweet spots it could certainly be a 25 TCF recoverable total for Loligo now - way past the needed 5 TCF recoverable for commercial development and in excess of the 10 TCF recoverable needed for very attractive commercial development.

Edison SPA must be well happy, they are EDF's gas development side - spearheading EDF's gas exploration and development program.

Excellent news and now on to Scotia - for a 1 billion recoverable barrels P50 potential there - and Scotia is pure oil prospect :)

Very happy the whole Eastern Falklands is now in play.

P50 for the East Falklands is potentially 80 billion BOE recoverable, and now its all systems go !!!

Very happy - and thats all I have to say :)


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 17, 2012 05:00AM

[www.offshore.no]

Searching for sweet spots at Loligo

Posted 17.09.2012 10:02:54 av John Bradbury

Work is starting straight away to see if the Loligo gas find in the Falklands is commercial.

Tim Bushell, chief executive of Falklands Oil and Gas, which operated the Loligo gas discovery well with 75%, said the although up to 100 metres (328 feet) of hydrocarbon-bearing reservoir has been encountered, further work needs to focus on reservoir distribution, to find the sweet spots within the discovery.

“The initial results of the Loligo well are encouraging,” Bushell declared today. “They have demonstrated that hydrocarbons have migrated into the Tertiary Channel Play. It is also clear that Loligo is a valid trap that contains multiple gas bearing zones, with over 100 metres [328 feet] of hydrocarbon bearing reservoir.”

And he continued: “We now need to focus on reservoir distribution within Loligo in order to find the sweet spots. A work programme will be undertaken to achieve this, assess the resource potential and commercial viability of this discovery.”

FOGL holds 75% equity in the 42/07-01 Loligo discovery well, which was drilled with the Leiv Eiriksson semi-submersible. Edison International holds the remaining 25% in the well.

With the results from the Scotia prospect – the next well on FOGL's South Atlantic drilling programme – Bushell said these should help determine the company's future exploration efforts.

He indicates that the company has the necessary funding in place for further 3D seismic surveys and for drilling again in 2014.


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 17, 2012 08:08AM

My original post on valuing and understanding Loligo is here :

[boards.fool.co.uk]

The succulent part is this below :

----------------------------

GAS BASIS - this is a VERY POSSIBLE outcome to the well on success.

T1 = Circa 9 TCF recoverable - P50

T1 Deep = Circa 3.8 TCF recoverable - P50

Trigg and Trigg Deep is circa 5.8 TCF recoverable - P50

Three Bears = Circa 9.5 TCF recoverable - P50

Based on Cove's (COV) sale and therefore using a 513 millions US$ per TCF recoverable and taking 75% of that for FOGL's share and 320 million shares in issue.

T1 = 9*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £6.98 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
T1 Deep = 3.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £2.94 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
Triggs = 5.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £4.49 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
3 Bears = 9.5*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £7.36 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas

As FOGL already have a farm in partner and reservoirs are going to be, if there, large massive thick sandstones and simple to develop the price should be higher than Sea Lion's 4.7US$ per barrel, however, I will use that for now to be conservative.

If all targets are gas, based on COV price - potential £21.77 per share.

------------------------------------

From todays RNS we would appear to have lost perhaps T1/T1 Deep - but have gained a substantial new reservoir in T5 level (Tertiary 5), however we do not know what it is. T5 could make up for the T1 potential loss - but at this stage it best to ignore T1 and go with no value for T5.

So Triggs + Three Bears and ignoring T5 - falls basically in line with the Goldman Sachs valuation - but with upside on T5 being big and good.

So well done Goldman - pretty good conservative valuation of Loligo going forward, lots of potential upside to that as well.

This potential will not get priced in to any large extent until further technical updates are given and will start to get fully priced in once an appraisal well hits the sweet spots in the channels (as opposed to present compromised location which hit the edges and outside of the channels - outside the main target reservoir thick pay areas).

But anyway - just goes to show what potential is there - and this East Falklands basin is massive.

You can see why its the only area that got farmed into by multi-billion partners BEFORE drilling started.


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Re: FOGL.L (Falkland Oil and Gas)
Posted by: Proselenes (IP Logged)
Date: September 17, 2012 08:10AM

Goldman Sachs comment :

Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) has just announced the result of the Loligo
exploration well being drilled in the South Falklands basin. The initial well
results indicate that gas has been encountered within the targeted T1 to T5
reservoir horizons with gas shows (C1 to C5) encountered while drilling
through each horizon. The company notes that owing to the thinly bedded
nature of the reservoir it is difficult at this stage to accurately assess
hydrocarbon saturation and the total net pay and thus further detailed
studies are required to obtain a better understanding of resource potential.

Analysis

FOGL has a 75% interest in the well with its partner Edision International
holding the remaining 25%. We currently value the prospect (c. gross
volume 4.7bn bls) net to FOGL at 135p/share on a risked post funding
basis. This assumes both a gas and oil case split roughly 65%:35%. In the
event of totally de-risking the prospect assuming a gas case, we would
value Loligo at c. £11.75/share.


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