Italy Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns

Updated at Wed, 04 May 2016 20:30:09 -0500
Country: Italy (updated daily) check out Global Overview for detailed methodology.

Ratio of total market cap over GDP: Maximum - 45%; Minimum - 10%; current - 12%
Expected future annual return: 11.7%

ETF Used for dividend yield: EWI (Yield=2.58%)
Market Index used: FTSE MIB
Current Annual GDP: $2,402 billion US dollars or 1,753 in billions of national currency (GDP in Local Current Prices Annual Growth=1.58%)
Data since year 2000


Italy Historical GDP Growth

Historical GDP of Italy in billions of national currency. The GDP in local current prices has grown at the annual rate of 1.58% over the past 8 years. Please note this growth rate includes the effect of price inflation and it is NOT the real GDP growth rate. Current Annual GDP: $2,402 billion US dollars or 1,753 in billions of national currency.

Italy GDP (Billion, National Currency)

Historical Stock Market Cap

Historical total market of Italy in billions of national currency. This value is normalized using the data published by WorldBank. FTSE MIB is used for the normalization. The index consists of the 40 most-traded stock classes on the exchange.

Italy Total Market Cap (Billion, National Currency)

Historical Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP (%)

The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for Italy is 12%. The historical high was 45%; the historical low was 10%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the historical mean of 22% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is 7.57%. This is the detailed historical chart of the ratio.

Italy Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP (%)

Conclusion

The stock market of Italy is expected to return 11.7% a year for the coming years. This is from the contribution of economic growth in local current prices: 1.58%, Dividend Yield: 2.58% and valuation reverse to the mean 7.57%.

This is the projected return of the stock market in Italy relative to other countries. Click on each bar in the chart to go to other countries:


You can go here to see what international stocks Gurus are buying.

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