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  • Adib Motiwala commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 6 hr ago
    Theory Versus Reality
    The June 27 issue of Barron’s has done it again. With thousands of fund managers to pick from, columnist Leslie Norton chose to spotlight Bruce...
    View all 1 comment
    Adib Motiwala 06-27 01:43
    • love these articles 
  • Adib Motiwala commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 7 hr ago
    Brexit Bargains Beckon the Brave
    AMG: Cheap is better than dear Publicly traded independent research outfit Morningstar (MORN) uses a valuation-based stock ranking system which runs...
    View all 2 comments
    Adib Motiwala 06-27 01:06
    •   Dr Price,

      thanks for another interesting article (as usual).

      I hope you dont mind my questions after each of your articles.

      1) Did the trigger for this company (AMG) come because you saw it in the M* 5 star list or you had it on your watchlist as well ? 

      2) When i see 2016 EPS estimate v/s 2015, EPS is estimated to decline. That maybe part of the reason from the steep decline from the $230 highs of 2015 to current levels (along with headwinds to asset managers and fears of market drop). Why would you expect the P/E to increase from 15 odd to 20 given EPS decline? (Just betting on market randomness, change in perception, decline in macro fears? )

      3) Where did you arrive at the 20 P/E from ? Did you use The VL average P/E for 2019-2011? Or did you discount the avergae P/E of last 6 years by some...

      I looked at some other asset managers such as BEN and IVZ and similar arguments ccould  possibly be made for them.

      Look forward to your thoughts.

      Did you consider BWA on these similar lines?

      Adib

       

       
  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 8 hr ago
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 126 comments
    batbeer2 06-26 23:47
    • >> My understanding is that both Gushu and Guangming became part of SEZ in 2010

      You have the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and you have the new Qianhai Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone. Qianhai is an even more special zone within the regular special economic zone :o)

      The proeprty in Gushu/Bao'an is just outside the Qianhai zone but definitely within the SEZ.

      You can read about the 2010 expansion of the SEZ at this obscure site: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen

      The plot in Gushu (junction of Guangshen highway and Nantai road) is just outside the Quanhai zone but definitely in the SEZ. It is close to the Shenzhen airport and is a mile from the Gushu subway station on the Luobao line. That is property #2 in the JLL report. The pics for that particular property are on p22.

      That is a fairly urban area. At one time I "walked" the streets with google street view but it seems this is no longer possible.

      The other properties are indeed in fairly rural areas. On a macro level I believe Shenzhen is pushing its industrial activities out into the more rural areas and converting the old industrial district (Bao'an) to a financial/services area.
  • Mrinalini Chaudhuri posts: 10 hr ago
    Tailored Brands Posts Mixed Results
    (TLRD) is the largest specialty retailer of men's suits and the largest provider of rental product in the U.S. and Canada with over 1,800 stores including tuxedo shops within Macy’s. The...
    Comment
  • Praveen Chawla commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 11 hr ago
    Brexit Bargains Beckon the Brave
    AMG: Cheap is better than dear Publicly traded independent research outfit Morningstar (MORN) uses a valuation-based stock ranking system which runs...
    View all 1 comment
    Praveen Chawla 06-26 20:57
    • Hopefully prices will stay down and create more opportunities.  Lots of good values in biotech.  People still have to die of something, Brexit or not.
  • Mrinalini Chaudhuri posts: 11 hr ago
  • Mrinalini Chaudhuri posts: 13 hr ago
    Specialty Retailer Destination XL Is On Growth Spree
    ((DXLG) is the largest omni-channel specialty retailer of big and tall men's apparel. With more than 2,000 private label and name-brand styles to choose from, big and tall customers are...
    Comment
  • fhappy commented on Alex Barrow's article 14 hr ago
    Mistakes Are the Way
    “I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong. ... I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.” – George Soros (Trades,...
    View all 1 comment
    fhappy 06-26 17:48
    • great i ilke it 


  • houmantamaddon commented on batbeer2's article 15 hr ago
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 125 comments
    houmantamaddon 06-26 16:53
    • Thanks for your response, Batbeer. The stock has gone down since your write-up, but as we, value investors, know stock price can be divorced from intrinsic value for long periods. I have held and added to my position all along the way. It is now about 10% of my portfolio. In your analysis you conservatively don't take into account RE appreciation when the project is complete. The completed Gushu RE may be worth RMB 10 257 million today, but hopefully in 5 years or so it'll be worth a lot more. I do like your conservative estimates though. Your discussion about the RE in your original article was brilliant since your write up was before the company became a property developer. In their 20F they said that they expect to see Wuxi by the end of 2016. It will be a good test to see how close the consultants come to actual sale price.

      My understanding is that both Gushu and Guangming became part of SEZ in 2010, but in Yahoo boards some believe that it is outside of SEZ. What do you think?

      I seriously considered going to the annual meeting in early June, but I was not sure if I would gain any more insight by going to the meeting and Shenzhen is a long way from Seattle. I enjoyed seeing the pics in the JLL report. It looks a lot more rural than the way I imagined it.
  • Praveen Chawla commented on GuruFocus's article 15 hr ago
    Book Review: Dead Companies Walking by Scott Fearon and Jesse Powell
    Over the past two weekends I read the book “Dead Companies Walking” by hedge fund manager Scott Fearon and journalist Jesse Powell. Scott Fearson...
    View all 1 comment
    Praveen Chawla 06-26 16:42
    • Looking forward to read it.
  • Mrinalini Chaudhuri posts: 16 hr ago
    Casey's General Stores Is On a Growing Spree
    (CASY) headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa, owns and operates over 1,900 convenience stores in 14 Midwestern states. The stores offer self-service gasoline, a wide variety of grocery items, and...
    Comment
  • Benjamin Clark posts: 16 hr ago
    10 Companies for Enterprising Dividend Investors - June
    There are a number of great companies in the market today. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I've selected 10 undervalued companies for the Enterprising dividend stock investor. These companies have the highest dividend yields among the...
    Comment
  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 18 hr ago
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 124 comments
    batbeer2 06-26 13:28
    • Hi Houmantamaddon,

      Thanks for your comment, yes I still track this.

      >> Do you think that the estimates are fair?

      Yes I saw the estimates. Savils says the market value of the completed building in Gushu (that's the plot on Nantai road in Shenzhen) should be: RMB 10 257 million.

      I think that works out to USD 1.5 billion.

      I take that from the bottom of page 6 of this file: http://www.namtai.com/sites/default/files/Valuation%20report%20by%20Savills%20in%202016.pdf

      The question is, how much are they going to spend to get there?

      I have seen all sorts of different (DCF) models but if I use $5000 per square meter x 134 000 square meters for the construction cost then I get roughly $700 million to build the whole thing. That works out to roughly $1.5B-$700m = $800m worth of profit for the project.

      So IMHO we are looking at $200m worth of net cash plus a project with a profit of $800m. That's $1B worth of future value trading for a market cap of $200m.

      Now if you like you can assume it takes them 5 years to get there and discount that future value at  15% for a present value of $500m.

      But hey, I've been bullish about this one for more than 3 years and the stock dont care. It is down more than 30% since I wrote this.

      Thanks for your comment. 
  • GuruFocus posts: 20 hr ago
    Book Review: Dead Companies Walking by Scott Fearon and Jesse Powell
    Over the past two weekends I read the book “<a...
    Comment

2016-06-25

  • Adib Motiwala commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 06-25 22:50
    Let Your 'Fear of Heights' Protect You
    Fear of heights is often considered a psychological abnormality. In the investment world, however, it can be a downright lifesaver. Stock...
    View all 4 comments
    Adib Motiwala 06-25 23:50
    • I also have the online service via a public library. It has full reports on many companies. but it did not have one for this company.
  • houmantamaddon commented on batbeer2's article 06-25 19:46
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 123 comments
    houmantamaddon 06-25 20:46
    • Batbeer,

      Your write up is now 3 years old but I just read it and all the comments again. Thank you for your excellent research. I am not sure if you are still following the comments here. Have you seen the new RE valuation reports. NTP (RE + liquid assets - liabilities) is still worth at least $14 per share, but I must admit that I was disappointed to see the low RE values given what I've been reading about Shenzhen. Do you think that the estimates are fair? Of the top of my head, I believe Saville's estimate was the highest at about 2.5 billion RMB which comes out to about $400 million or about $10 per share. The numbers are ball park here.

      By the way, if you ever come to Seattle it would be nice to meet you.

       

2016-06-24

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