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  • mlblevins updated contact information. 1 hr ago
  • subguy750 commented on The Science of Hitting's article 1 hr ago
    A Look at Altman's Z-Score
    In 1968, a financial economist from NYU named Edward Altman developed a model for assessing and probabilistically predicting corporate bankruptcy....
    View all 2 comments
    subguy750 08-02 20:40
    • The following blurb is found on Gurufocus under every company's z-score calculation:

      "Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years."

      That statement is repeated often in articles here and elsewhere, but it is incorrect. 

      Altman's study found that, of 25 out-of-sample bankrupt manufacturing companies, 20 of them (80%) had a z-score below the safe zone calaculated from annual report data 13-24 months before their bankruptcy filing.

      Altman also found that 10-20% of companies had a low z-score in the years that he sampled, but that did not necessarily mark these firms as "80% likely to go bankrupt".

      A better interpretation of the z-score would be:  Of manufacturing companies that are destined to go bankrupt, most would be flagged by a low z-score up to two years before the filing.

      Altman later revised his z-score (and associated cutoff values) to address all non-financial companies, not just those in manufacturing.  The raw data are available on Gurufocus.  Apply some conversion arithmetic, and you have a more reliable indicator, but it is still subject to Type II error.

       
  • kreshel47 made a stock note of $NOV: I think I really like this. Need to do in depth research into the business. 1 hr ago
    $NOV: I think I really like this. Need to do in depth research into the business.
    Comment
  • gurujx posts: 1 hr ago
    Weekly Insider Sells Highlight: ZION, PYPL, FTNT, ISRG
    , the largest insider sells during the past week were: Zions Bancorp, PayPal Holdings Inc, Fortinet Inc, and Intuitive Surgical...
    Comment
  • paulmenezes commented on page 2 hr ago
    Cogeco Cable Inc Compare - GuruFocus.com
    paulmenezes 08-02 19:48
    • Just some feedback for the COMPARE function of the stock information page. When I go to compare a Canadian telecommunications company traded on the TSX, it automatically compares it with five companies traded on the NYSE but none on the TSX. I can manually type but feel it would be neat
  • donlockwood made a stock note of ASX:IVC: owns and operates funeral homes 2 hr ago
    ASX:IVC: owns and operates funeral homes
    Comment
  • donlockwood made a stock note of $HKSE:01438: the largest death care provider in Asia - MOAT 2 hr ago
    $HKSE:01438: the largest death care provider in Asia - MOAT
    Comment
  • donlockwood made a stock note of HKSE:01438: the largest death care provider in Asia - MOAT 2 hr ago
    HKSE:01438: the largest death care provider in Asia - MOAT
    Comment
  • moderngraham posts: 2 hr ago
    5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a High Beta - August 2015
    <img alt="20140530-054905-20945379.jpg" src="http://www.moderngraham.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/20140530-054905-20945379-300x300.jpg"...
    Comment
  • moderngraham posts: 2 hr ago
    The 16 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week - 8/1/15
    We evaluated 32 different companies this week to determine whether they are suitable for Defensive Investors, those unwilling to do substantial research, or Enterprising Investors, those who are willing to do such research. We also put each...
    Comment
  • donlockwood made a stock note of $LSE:BAG: Scottish manufacturer of soft drink 'Irn Bru',know as Scotland's other national drink. MOAT! 2 hr ago
    $LSE:BAG: Scottish manufacturer of soft drink 'Irn Bru',know as Scotland's other national drink. MOAT!
    Comment
  • donlockwood made a stock note of LSE:BAG: Scottish manufacturer of soft drink 'Irn Bru' known as 'Scotland's other national drink' - MOAT 2 hr ago
    LSE:BAG: Scottish manufacturer of soft drink 'Irn Bru' known as 'Scotland's other national drink' - MOAT
    Comment
  • Ken McGaha commented on Ken McGaha's article 2 hr ago
    Autodesk: A Great Example Of A Good Business And A Bad Investement
    Not all bad investments are made in bad businesses and not all good businesses are good investments. There are a multitude of factors that go into...
    View all 2 comments
    Ken McGaha 08-02 19:09
    • Pravchaw,

      As I stated in the piece, I don't mind highly compensated managers if they are delivering long-term value to the shareholders.  I have always been biased toward buyside analysis but just recently I have been somewhat shocked at the valuations of some of the businesses I have analyzed and the management compensation packages for the top 5 guys.

      I just thought Autodesk was bad until I reviewed a couple of others that I wrote about on GuruFocus.  I am beginning to believe that the harder it is to find the compensation packages of the top management at these businesses; the more outrageous they are.

      I hope everyone appreciates the willingness of GuruFocus to publish research and analysis that is critical of some of these "high-flyers" as not all sites are willing to do it.  If you haven't read my other analysis pieces that followed this one, I would encourage you to do so; the market is becomming a very dangerous place for those who are not fully aware of what they own and why they own it.

      I do have a new piece pending publication that I just submitted earler today for review that is a rare gem in today's market and a stock that I believe is currently valued at a truly compelling level.  I expect it to be released on the site either Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.

      Thank you for you kind words and I am pleased you found my work beneficial and informative.

      Best regards and better profits,

      Ken
  • fmiale7364 made a stock note of $INTC: large div acquisition of valuable company pullback 4 hr ago
    $INTC: large div acquisition of valuable company pullback
    Comment
  • cody56 posts: 8 hr ago
    Elliot Turner: Interview With The Manual Of Ideas
    Elliot Turner of RGA Investment Advisors did a interview with the Manual Of Ideas where he discusses how to appraise an investment...
    Comment
  • cody56 posts: 8 hr ago
    Matthew Asia Dividend Fund First Half Of 2015 Commentary
    For the first half of 2015, the Matthews Asia Dividend Fund returned 12.65% (Investor Class), outperforming its benchmark, the MSCI All...
    Comment
  • loru123 commented on loru123's stock note 9 hr ago
    my luck in mu hand
    View all 1 comment
    loru123 08-02 12:49
    • myself
  • TheExtraIncome commented on TheExtraIncome's article 12 hr ago
    Four Stocks With Growing EPS Near Their 52-Week Lows - Part II
    With these articles, thanks to GuruFocus All-In-One Screener, I want to highlight stocks that have a strong price correction and are trading near...
    View all 2 comments
    TheExtraIncome 08-02 09:56
    • Hello, thanks for your comment. Kors is currently at 9.81 P/E with a 5-year growth rate of 99%. Of course the article is about current data..
  • Dr. Paul Price post a new topic 13 hr ago
    Peter Lynch Portfolio 29 Newsetter - August Issue
    The August issue of the Peter Lynch Portfolio 29 is now available for download.Subscribers should note that our total return performance has picked up nicely since the deadline date used when compiling results.
    Comment
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 13 hr ago
    Are We Value Investors?
    We were recently talking to a fellow investment manager and somewhere in the conversation - quite nonchalantly - they mentioned that we weren't...
    View all 4 comments
    Thomas Macpherson 08-02 08:08
    • DJ: thanks for your comment. We think high quality companies at a reasonable discount to fair value will generate adequate returns over the long run. You selections look like great companies to us. Bat: your comment highlights the differences. We rarely find a great company at a 50% discount to our intrinsic value and find that 25% meets our needs. Thanks again to both of you for your comments. Best. - Tom
  • rakesh54 commented on page 14 hr ago
    Shiller P/E Ratio: Where Are We with Market Valuations?
    View all 28 comments
    rakesh54 08-02 07:20
    • Very helful artical. i really enjoying while reading this artical. thank you so much for share with us.
      Very nice i am really helpfull with this.
      Thank you again for share with us.
      skrill money adder
  • rakesh54 commented on page 14 hr ago
    Warren Buffett Portfolio - 2013 Stock Picks and Performances
    View all 21 comments
    rakesh54 08-02 07:17
    • Very helful artical. i really enjoying while reading this artical. thank you so much for share with us.
      Veny nice i am really helpfull with this.
      Thank you again for share with us.
      http://nexthacks.com/skrill-money-adder
  • onlyvalue made a stock note of $WFM: Chute à cause des balances truquées ? 15 hr ago
    $WFM: Chute à cause des balances truquées ?
    Comment

Yesterday

  • jtdaniel commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 16 hr ago
    Are We Value Investors?
    We were recently talking to a fellow investment manager and somewhere in the conversation - quite nonchalantly - they mentioned that we weren't...
    View all 3 comments
    jtdaniel 08-02 05:58
    • Hi Batbeer,

      Not to worry, there is always another bear market. I haven't seen any 50 cent dollars in the quality stocks I track since 2009. Perhaps BP in 2010 would qualify, but that name did not interest me. Berkshire was a good value in 2011, but certainly not a 50 cent dollar. Maybe there have been such opportunities in small bio techs or net nets, but I would have never noticed. Best, dj
  • ks052557 made a stock note of $RDN: Hgh ROE 16 hr ago
    $RDN: Hgh ROE
    Comment
  • ks052557 made a stock note of $CHMT: Low EV/EBIT 16 hr ago
    $CHMT: Low EV/EBIT
    Comment
  • batbeer2 commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 18 hr ago
    Are We Value Investors?
    We were recently talking to a fellow investment manager and somewhere in the conversation - quite nonchalantly - they mentioned that we weren't...
    View all 2 comments
    batbeer2 08-02 03:45
    • Thanks for an article worth reading.

      You say:

      >> In our definition, equity value investing is purchasing shares of a corporation in which the markets have created a significant variant between the price of the stock and the intrinsic value of the company’s shares.

      There are many schisms of the church of value investing but it is of course a matter of definitions. Perhaps "true value investing" as referred to by your interlocutor could be defined as the activity of buying 50ct dollars.  

      It seems very few people on the interweb take that definition seriously. More than 95% of the ideas presented on this site or on a place like VIC, not to mention SA are about companies trading at a percieved discount of 15% to 30%. Assuming the analyses are correct, those would be 70ct dollars and not 50ct dollars. 

      In some cases people may be willing to pay a bit more for (percieved) quality but I believe most ïnvestors are simply unwilling to go the extra mile to find that 50% margin of safety; thinking 25% should be enough and hoping the market will quickly realize the error of its ways.

      Ever hopefull I continue to hunt for quality stocks at a 50% discount. In ten years I have found four. The really bad news is that I didn't recognise the quality of the first two. I'll let you know when I find another one. 
  • dogarmunawar made a stock note of $AAPL: investing 19 hr ago
    $AAPL: investing
    Comment
  • Mcolympic commented on Amber Harris's article 20 hr ago
    20 Questions With Bill Nygren - Part II
    10. How did you begin your career as an investor and what steps did you take to become as successful as you are today? Also, what made you want to...
    View all 6 comments
    Mcolympic 08-02 01:45
    • Excellent Q&A. Thank you so much for the interview. Would be great appreciated to see more interviews with Gurus like this one.

       
  • Gilbertshacker wrote a new blog 21 hr ago
    Family lawyer in Rockford IL
    Rockford divorce attorney, Tomiko Buchanan, is dedicated to educating her clients about the current state of the law and advocating on their beha
    Comment
  • portfolio14 commented on batbeer2's article 22 hr ago
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 109 comments
    portfolio14 08-01 23:50
    • Hi Batbeer2,

      I'm still holding it. With perfect hindsight, I should've sold at $7 and then bought back below $4. LOL.

      The recent market turmoil in China may derail (or delay) this development as the overall theme of that region is a financial hub rivaling Shanghai.

      50c on a dollar plus some freebies. The thesis has been correct so far. But this does require patience... Opportunity cost...

       
  • Daniellschmitz wrote a new blog 23 hr ago
    Divorce attorney in Rockford IL
    Rockford divorce attorney, Tomiko Buchanan, is dedicated to educating her clients about the current state of the law and advocating on their beha
    Comment
  • jtdaniel commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 23 hr ago
    Are We Value Investors?
    We were recently talking to a fellow investment manager and somewhere in the conversation - quite nonchalantly - they mentioned that we weren't...
    View all 1 comment
    jtdaniel 08-01 22:57
    • Hi Tom,

      I really enjoyed your article. I have come to believe that mixing GARP and pure value stocks can really  enhance portfolio return. Hence my recent purchases in Nestle (GARP) and Loews (below book value). Given Nestle's strong franchise value, I see it as no more risky than Loews over an extended holding period. Perhaps the best thing about GARP stocks like Neste, Wal-Mart or Abbott Labs is that the investor should have no fear of averaging down. Most of my profits over the last 30 years have come from averaging down into legacy holdings. Best, dj.
  • cheekychino commented on Activewits's article 08-01 19:01
    What Does Seth Klarman See in A Company That Fell 28% Today?
    Ocwen Financial Corporation’s (OCN) stock price fell over 28% today. It’s a stock that many Gurus have owned including Kyle Bass, Howard Marks,...
    View all 5 comments
    cheekychino 08-01 20:01
    • Servicing was an important area of OCN's business which had great growth prospects. That business is probably what attracted other investor's in the first place. Now that they are getting out of that business, it makes OCN less appealing as a long term holding. I wouldn't be buying just because of Seth. Perhaps you guys should be looking at OCN's largest competitors in the servicing space.
  • Bradlewski commented on Activewits's article 08-01 18:30
    What Does Seth Klarman See in A Company That Fell 28% Today?
    Ocwen Financial Corporation’s (OCN) stock price fell over 28% today. It’s a stock that many Gurus have owned including Kyle Bass, Howard Marks,...
    View all 4 comments
    Bradlewski 08-01 19:30
    • Agreed

      As an inverse:

      •Failure to maintain sufficient liquidity to operate our servicing and lending businesses;

      By getting out of servicing. Liqidity should be even better

      •Failure to comply with covenants;

      Problematic but insurance should cover much of this-Exiting also helps

      •Downgrades in our third-party servicer ratings; or

      Out of favor-Value investors love a misplaced bet-We still need to understand how we get  our ROI from the Cash flows

      •Regulatory actions against us.

      Problematic and cooperating is a good sign.  Insurance + liquidity + exiting should mitigate much of this

      Keep digging into this and waiting to see if Seth adds. Doubt he will sell unless it shoots up significantly.

      Hope this helps
  • Olaf made a stock note of $SDLP: Good Dividend Good Peter Lynch 08-01 18:03
    $SDLP: Good Dividend Good Peter Lynch
    Comment
  • pravchaw commented on Jonathan Poland's article 08-01 18:02
    Coach: Don’t Beat A Dead Horse
    If you bought Coach (COH) stock July 25, 2005, you paid $36 at the open and $34.94 at the close. Today, the stock sits under $31 and while they have...
    View all 1 comment
    pravchaw 08-01 19:02
    • Its a company in transition with a strong and classic brand name.  I expect it to turnaround while paying a good dividend while we wait.  Strong cash flow and dividend.
  • Olaf made a stock note of $SDRL: Peter Lynch good 08-01 18:01
    $SDRL: Peter Lynch good
    Comment
  • Activewits.com commented on Activewits's article 08-01 17:15
    What Does Seth Klarman See in A Company That Fell 28% Today?
    Ocwen Financial Corporation’s (OCN) stock price fell over 28% today. It’s a stock that many Gurus have owned including Kyle Bass, Howard Marks,...
    View all 3 comments
    Activewits.com 08-01 18:15
    • Thanks for the comment.  OCN is in a fluid situation.  They are selling part of its servicing business to simplify operations. This is from their recently filed 10Q:  

      We are facing certain challenges and uncertainties that could have significant adverse effects on our business, liquidity and financing activities. We may be adversely impacted by the following, among other things:

      •Failure to maintain sufficient liquidity to operate our servicing and lending businesses;

      •Failure to comply with covenants;

      •Downgrades in our third-party servicer ratings; or

      •Regulatory actions against us.
  • Bradlewski commented on Activewits's article 08-01 17:13
    What Does Seth Klarman See in A Company That Fell 28% Today?
    Ocwen Financial Corporation’s (OCN) stock price fell over 28% today. It’s a stock that many Gurus have owned including Kyle Bass, Howard Marks,...
    View all 2 comments
    Bradlewski 08-01 18:13
    • I took a quick pre-cursory glance at this one.

      Seth bought in 3Q 2014.  Reduced in 4Q 2014. Then added at a lower price in 1Q  2015. Sounds prudent given the regulatory & other issues they are facing. His holdings are only ~1% of his total portfolio.  So, I will be watching to see if he changed his holdings for 2Q 2015. 

      FCF/share-TTM according to Guru is $3.56. So, at ~$8.5/share that's a 3yr payback time. Even doubling the time due to negative publicity, this is not bad. Also, your article states  "Revenues last year were $2.11B and market capitalization is $1.06B." 

      I'll be digging deeper into this one.

      Thanks for the read.
  • Samharker made a stock note of LSE:AGRO: Look at next quarter result to see if this free cash is real or soe kind of carried forward loss from investment 08-01 17:12
    LSE:AGRO: Look at next quarter result to see if this free cash is real or soe kind of carried forward loss from investment
    Comment
  • Holly LaFon posts: 08-01 17:09
    First Eagle Global Fund Q2 Commentary 2015
    In the second quarter of 2015, the MSCI World index returned 0.3% while in the U.S. the S&P 500 index fell 1.9%. In Europe, the German DAX dropped 8.5% and the French CAC 40...
    Comment
  • JulieYoung789 posts: 08-01 17:09
    First Eagle Investment Adds to Its Stake in Intevac
    (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=First+Eagle+Investment"...
    Comment
  • cheekychino commented on Activewits's article 08-01 16:48
    What Does Seth Klarman See in A Company That Fell 28% Today?
    Ocwen Financial Corporation’s (OCN) stock price fell over 28% today. It’s a stock that many Gurus have owned including Kyle Bass, Howard Marks,...
    View all 1 comment
    cheekychino 08-01 17:48
    • What about the bear case

      OCN is getting out of the mortgage servicing business? <= I would think that this is an extremely important change in the business....
  • JackDavar commented on page 08-01 15:59
    GuruFocus Excel Add-in Application -- GuruFocus.com
    View all 5 comments
    JackDavar 08-01 16:59
    • same here : Does NOT work on windows + excel !!!
  • TheExtraIncome posts: 08-01 14:57
    Why I Am Buying New York Community Bancorp Inc.
    New York Community Bancorp Inc. (<a href="http://www.gurufocus.com/stock/NYCB&affid=152113"...
    Comment
  • SerenityStocks commented on cody56's article 08-01 14:49
    Whitney Tilson: Berkshire Hathaway Worth $267,000 A Share
    Whitney Tilson (Trades, Portfolio) sent out an email to his investors where he discussed a variety of topics ranging from Berkshire Hathaway...
    View all 1 comment
    SerenityStocks 08-01 15:49
    • Benjamin Graham was a scholar and professional investor who mentored investing legends such as Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio), William J. Ruane, Irving Kahn and Walter J. Schloss.

      Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) wrote the preface to Graham's book - The Intelligent Investor - in which he calls it "by far the best book about investing ever written."

      Graham's first recommended strategy - for novice investors - was to invest in Index stocks. 

      For more serious investors, Graham recommended three different categories of stocks - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 17 qualitative and quantitative rules for identifying them. 

      For professional investors, Graham described various special situations or "workouts".

      For example, given below are Graham's prices for Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A), with no adjustments other than those for inflation.

      Defensive Price (Graham Number): $190,730.23

      Enterprising Price (Serenity Number): $126,393.54

      NCAV Price (Net Current Asset Value): -$178,760.00

      Note: Stocks failing Graham's rules are not necessarily bad investments. They may fall under Graham's "special situations" category. Graham's rules are also extremely selective.

      Most of Buffett's investments are what Graham defined as Special Situations.
  • SerenityStocks commented on Canadian Value's article 08-01 14:40
    Notes From Hillhouse Capital's Lei Zhang's Lecture At Columbia Business School
    In the high flying world of investing, Lei Zhang maintains a relatively low profile. Yet since he was seeded by David Swensen of Yale Endowment with...
    View all 1 comment
    SerenityStocks 08-01 15:40
    • Benjamin Graham was a scholar and professional investor who mentored investing legends such as Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio), William J. Ruane, Irving Kahn and Walter J. Schloss.

      Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) wrote the preface to Graham's book - The Intelligent Investor - in which he calls it "by far the best book about investing ever written."

      Graham's first recommended strategy - for novice investors - was to invest in Index stocks. 

      For more serious investors, Graham recommended three different categories of stocks - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 17 qualitative and quantitative rules for identifying them. 

      For professional investors, Graham described various special situations or "workouts".

      The first requires almost no analysis, and is easily accomplished today with a good S&P500 Index fund.

      The last requires more than the average level of ability and experience. Such stocks are also not amenable to impartial algorithmic analysis, and require a case-specific approach.

      But Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV stocks can be reliably detected by today's data-mining software, and offer a great avenue for accurate automated analysis and profitable investment.

      Most of Buffett's investments are what Graham defined as Special Situations.

      Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) once gave a speech at Columbia Business School describing how Graham's record of creating exceptional investors (such as Buffett himself) is unquestionable, and how Graham's principles are everlasting. The speech is now known as "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville".
  • Jonathan Poland commented on Jonathan Poland's article 08-01 14:31
    Why Does Big Money Own Corning?
      Corning (GLW) has had very disappointing LCD sales Financial growth has not translated into price growth Great for consumers but a long term...
    View all 2 comments
    Jonathan Poland 08-01 15:31
    • Interesting point. 

       
  • butchokoy commented on BramdeHaas@twitter's article 08-01 14:03
    The Next Target 3G And Warren Buffet Could Team Up For
    PepsiCo (PEP) is best known as the competitor to Coca-Cola (KO). The two giants effectively have the market for black gold (the other black gold)...
    View all 3 comments
    butchokoy 08-01 15:03
    • Hard to justify the math.  Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) doesn't want to carry a lot of leverage.  Coke's enterprise value is 200 billion.  If Berkshire and 3G want to take the company private, they will have to add a premium to buy out the remaining 90 percent of the company. 

       

      Let's look at some of the numbers:

      Berkshire has 60 billion in cash on its balance sheet.  Of that 60, 20 billion is set aside for future insurance claims losses.  

      Let's also assume no premium is added to the EV valuation.  So Berkshire and 3G will buy the remaining 180 billion of Coke to take it private.  

      Berkshire puts its entire 40 billion in cash.  3G puts 10 billion.  That's a total of 50 billion.  The rest of 130 billion will be debt finance.  

      Without going through deep financial analysis, that's 130 billion dollars in debt sitting on the balance sheet.  

      On a 2% interest, interest expense will be $2.6 billion.  If you calculate interest coverage on its current ebitda, the interest coverage will come out as 3.73.  That's very low on Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) standards.  The beverage business is very big on marketing.  A high leverage balance sheet will deter new management from spending on its new products.  Remember Coke is in a transition mode.  Soda sales are declining so emphasis is on non sparkling/still brands.  

      If you also take this $130 billion debt, with its 2014 $7 billion net income, it will take management over 18 years to pay off its debt.  Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) likes this number to be below 5.  

      I don't thing this deal is possible.  Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) always thinks of the downside before looking in to the upside.  His number one rule in investing is "not to lose money".  He's earning billions in dividends from his Coke holdings.  Why would he want the headace of running it?  

       

       
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