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European Shorting
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But I read on because it mentioned Shiller P/E - a valuation metric I respect. However, the Shiller p/e is STRONGLY warped by the earnings destruction in '07-09 (especially banks - which were a great investment thereafter as earnings normalize). I suspect the data from the crash years are the abnormality rather than representing future earnings well. Still, this is a red flag to me.
It seems hard to imagine anyone caring what "non-guru" investment advisors say. The only time they are of value is when they are extreme (super negative or super bullish) in which case they do create risks and opportunities if you play off their warping the market. However, it is hard to argue we are at that level when barely over half of managers are bullish and vast numbers of Americans are staying out of the equity markets and buying an asset (Treasuries) that will likely produce a negative return.
I do think many "safe dividend" stocks (P&G, JNJ, Kimberly) are priced well beyond their likely growth so that 2-3% rise in equity value is likely (but you get 3% dividends, so that isn't too bad). But, back to the article, to say that the tea leaves flash "crash" and "extreme" is unpersuasive to this value investor. Caution is in order, especially given the premium placed on certain safe dividend stocks, but if you think WFC is ready to crash at a p/e of 10.5 (and other favorable value metrics), I'd be very surprised (same for Intel, MSFT, Volkswagen, VOD).