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The Science of Hitting  Anonymous

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  • Totally has 1390 visits
  • "Ted Williams described in his book, The Science of Hitting, that the most important thing is to wait for the right pitch. And that’s exactly the philosophy I have about investing." - WB »

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  • Dr. Paul Price 2016-06-07 15:17
    I wrote a full-fledged article on MKL today that will be published tomorrow on Real Money Pro, a subscription only site.

    If you give me your e-mail I will send it to you privately.

    Paul Price
  • fletchercole 2015-06-09 07:33
    The Science of : Fletcher, Didn't see your friend request (from a few months ago) until right now - sorry about that! Thanks for the kind words and hope to talk some No problem.  The notifications for the gurufocus site can be hard to pay attention to sometimes.  I usually focus on the articles!  I don't write/contribute on gurufocus, but occasionally like to "friend" contributors that I feel are well-worth reading.  Thanks for your contr ...
  • mike.crew 2013-01-24 09:54
    Science:
        I have read your comments and analysis with great interest. I am a value manager with a smallish portfolio ($163 mill) and would be interested in establishing a dialogue. If you are interested drop me a line at [email protected]
                                   Thanks Mike
  • leycrjb 2012-10-26 02:41
    The Science of : I wasn't pointing to the increase in allowance for doubtful accounts as the explanation - that's what the Securitization Program part was about. What Oh I see. No worries. I just find the massive increase strange, even moreso that they don't explain it at all. I guess they've been giving their customers longer to pay them in order to keep their business, but I'd have thought there'd be a sentence somewhere in the 10-k to explain that. ...
  • leycrjb 2012-10-25 05:29
    The Science of : Take a look at the May 2009 Securitization Program in the 10-K filed in March 2010; in that instance, the allowance for doubtful accounts matched (rou
    I don't understand. Why should an increase in the allowance for doubtful accounts lead to an increase in receivables?

» More Messages

All The Science of Hitting's Activities

  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 8 hr ago
    Updating My Thoughts on Walmart
    It’s been a bumpy ride in the 2½ years since I first wrote about Walmart (WMT) on GuruFocus. From a starting price of ~$75 per share in January...
    View all 7 comments
    The Science of Hitting 08-24 09:55
    • Benice,

      First off, as always, thanks for the kind words. You are too kind!

      Let's start with some numbers: at the end of the second quarter, Berkshire owned ~40 million shares of Walmart common stock. A year ago, this was more than 60 million shares. Clearly Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) is less interested in owning WMT than he used to be. That's not what I like to hear. 

      Walmart has competed in a cut-throat industry for a long, long time. From my perspective, Amazon has taken this to a whole new level. The company does such a good job at consistently exceeding customer expectations; I think they've "won" tens of millions of loyal consumers that will almost certainly turn to Amazon as their default retailer for years to come. To date, I'd argue Walmart has done a poor job of meeting and exceeding customer expectations in e-commerce, as well as trying to leverage legacy assets in those efforts (for example, faulty ideas like in store pick-up that requires walking to the back of a 180,000 square foot box). Simply put, this has to change if the company wants to compete and win long-term. 

      This definitely will not be easy. After a tough experience with Tesco, and less than stellar results on his Walmart investment, Warren may have decided to look for greener pastures elsewhere. 

      Personally, I couldn't see myself owning any brick and mortar retailer besides Walmart (even with a single digit P/E). I think e-commerce is just getting started. I believe very few retailers will be able to effectively compete in this new world. For the reasons I've outlined in other articles, I think Walmart has a chance to succeed long-term. Time will tell whether I'm right or wrong.

      As always, thanks for the comment Benice!
  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 10 hr ago
    Why I'm Buying Twenty-First Century Fox
    I recently added shares of Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA), a global media and entertainment company, to my portfolio. I’ve been following...
    View all 5 comments
    The Science of Hitting 08-24 08:10
    • Dougals,

      Agreed, seems reasonable to me at ~$25 per share. Thanks for the comment!
  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 10 hr ago
    Updating My Thoughts on Walmart
    It’s been a bumpy ride in the 2½ years since I first wrote about Walmart (WMT) on GuruFocus. From a starting price of ~$75 per share in January...
    View all 5 comments
    The Science of Hitting 08-24 08:07
    • Varunfriend,

      Agree with your thinking. Thanks for sharing the thoughtful comment!
  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 10 hr ago
    Updating My Thoughts on Walmart
    It’s been a bumpy ride in the 2½ years since I first wrote about Walmart (WMT) on GuruFocus. From a starting price of ~$75 per share in January...
    View all 4 comments
    The Science of Hitting 08-24 08:04
    • Praveen,

      Thanks for the kind words; like yourself, kicking myself for not buying (much) more!
  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 08-22 14:31
    Why I'm Buying Twenty-First Century Fox
    I recently added shares of Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA), a global media and entertainment company, to my portfolio. I’ve been following...
    View all 2 comments
    The Science of Hitting 08-22 15:31
    • DLV,

      I'm not sure that a la carte pricing - if it's even offered - makes a ton of sense for most people. Consider that the average households watches ~300 hours of TV each month across ~17 different channels (Nielsen and Media Redef data). Now look at the cost for OTT offerings - either packages (Sling, Vue, etc) or single channels (HBO, CBS, etc). Even if you really only care about ~5 of the ~17 channels watched in your household, it's difficult to save money relative to the average Comcast "Double Play" bundle, at least based on what I've seen (I'm happy to look at the math if you have an example that suggests otherwise). This assumes people care about and are willing to pay for the channels that consistently have strong ratings - Fox News, ESPN, etc. 

      I'd encourage you to read the three-part series referenced below, which I think does a good job addressing the cord shaving argument:

      https://stratechery.com/2013/the-cord-cutting-fantasy/

      Cord cutting, on the other hand, is a problem: if you cut TV all together, you'll save a lot of money (hundreds of dollars per year). As noted above, I question how many people are truly willing / able to completely cut the cord. If I'm incorrect on this assumption, it would not be good for FOXA.

      Thanks for the comment! 
  • The Science of Hitting commented on Grahamites's article 08-18 05:26
    Dead Companies Walking: An Interesting Book on Short Selling
    I recently started a routine of writing summaries on books I have read. The goal is to further my understanding as well as to improve retention...
    View all 2 comments
    The Science of Hitting 08-18 06:26
    • Good article Grahamites. I really like the big ideas + case studies approach. Thanks for sharing!
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