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The Science of Hitting  Alex

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  • Totally has 1431 visits
  • "Ted Williams described in his book, The Science of Hitting, that the most important thing is to wait for the right pitch. And that’s exactly the philosophy I have about investing." - WB »

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  • Dr. Paul Price 2016-06-07 15:17
    I wrote a full-fledged article on MKL today that will be published tomorrow on Real Money Pro, a subscription only site.

    If you give me your e-mail I will send it to you privately.

    Paul Price
  • fletchercole 2015-06-09 07:33
    The Science of : Fletcher, Didn't see your friend request (from a few months ago) until right now - sorry about that! Thanks for the kind words and hope to talk some No problem.  The notifications for the gurufocus site can be hard to pay attention to sometimes.  I usually focus on the articles!  I don't write/contribute on gurufocus, but occasionally like to "friend" contributors that I feel are well-worth reading.  Thanks for your contr ...
  • mike.crew 2013-01-24 09:54
    Science:
        I have read your comments and analysis with great interest. I am a value manager with a smallish portfolio ($163 mill) and would be interested in establishing a dialogue. If you are interested drop me a line at [email protected]
                                   Thanks Mike
  • leycrjb 2012-10-26 02:41
    The Science of : I wasn't pointing to the increase in allowance for doubtful accounts as the explanation - that's what the Securitization Program part was about. What Oh I see. No worries. I just find the massive increase strange, even moreso that they don't explain it at all. I guess they've been giving their customers longer to pay them in order to keep their business, but I'd have thought there'd be a sentence somewhere in the 10-k to explain that. ...
  • leycrjb 2012-10-25 05:29
    The Science of : Take a look at the May 2009 Securitization Program in the 10-K filed in March 2010; in that instance, the allowance for doubtful accounts matched (rou
    I don't understand. Why should an increase in the allowance for doubtful accounts lead to an increase in receivables?

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All The Science of Hitting's Activities

  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 01-16 14:31
    How to Analyze a Company
    A fellow GuruFocus reader recently sent me an email with the following question: “Which books would you recommend if I want to start investing in...
    View all 15 comments
    The Science of Hitting 01-16 14:31
    • Vgm - Those are great additional points; thanks for sharing your thoughts and the link to the article. 
  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 01-11 13:33
    How to Analyze a Company
    A fellow GuruFocus reader recently sent me an email with the following question: “Which books would you recommend if I want to start investing in...
    View all 10 comments
    The Science of Hitting 01-11 13:33
    • Richday,

      That makes sense to me; thanks for the reply.

      "I'd rather sit and wait than take undue risk."

      I couldn't agree more!!!
  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 01-11 05:56
    How to Analyze a Company
    A fellow GuruFocus reader recently sent me an email with the following question: “Which books would you recommend if I want to start investing in...
    View all 8 comments
    The Science of Hitting 01-11 05:56
    • RIchday,

      Thanks for sharing your approach. Out of curiosity, how do you position your portfolio (balance between cash / stock / bonds) when <5% of stocks on your list are in the "Buy" range? Does that mean you have a huge amount of your portfolio in cash or fixed income? Thanks for the comment!
  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 01-10 21:29
    How to Analyze a Company
    A fellow GuruFocus reader recently sent me an email with the following question: “Which books would you recommend if I want to start investing in...
    View all 6 comments
    The Science of Hitting 01-10 21:29
    • Dr. Paul,

      I personally find there's a lot of value in digging through old 10-K's; you can see how disclosures have changed over time, determine when adjustments are appropriate (and when they're not), etc. I manually input the data for this reason, even though it takes more time. For me, this is a worthwhile exercise. 

      Thanks for the comment!
  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 01-10 19:31
    How to Analyze a Company
    A fellow GuruFocus reader recently sent me an email with the following question: “Which books would you recommend if I want to start investing in...
    View all 4 comments
    The Science of Hitting 01-10 19:31
    • BatBeer,

      That's a great recommendation - thanks for sharing. I really like the idea of walking down the P&L to get a sense for where revenues are ultimately ending up. 

      It's stumbling across those surprising answers that makes investing truly exhilarating :)
  • The Science of Hitting commented on The Science of Hitting's article 01-10 19:24
    How to Analyze a Company
    A fellow GuruFocus reader recently sent me an email with the following question: “Which books would you recommend if I want to start investing in...
    View all 3 comments
    The Science of Hitting 01-10 19:24
    • Lion,

      You make a number of good points, and my response is long enough that it deserves another article; let me try and at least hit the high level here.

      On to your first point - how do you know if this company that's worthy of hours of work? I picked Costco for that reason. This company has a special connection with its customers. This insight doesn't require any understanding of the business model, the company's long-term success, etc. If you shop there, there's a very good chance you would agree with me (that's why their renewal rates are ~90%). If you're new to investing, why not start with a company that you know has happy customers? They also have a business model - selling beer, ketchup and TV's - that doesn't seem too hard to understand. It's a great way for a beginner to wade in.

      As it relates to complexity / understanding, that's part of the learning process. When you dive into Costco's 10-K, you'll read about a comparable store sales (comps), diluted and basic shares outstanding, capital expenditures, etc. What the heck do those words mean? Pull up Google: the answer is at your finger tips. Even today, there are parts of the 10-K that trip me up from time to time (depending on the industry); over the years, I've slowly but surely chipped away at the concepts that were foreign to me. I'm not sure how you can do this any other way.

      I wouldn't worry about going from 0 to 100; I'd simply try and get the ball rolling. Pick a company that's understandable that interests you and read the 10-K. Build the Excel document with 1-3 years of data instead of 10-15 years. For every number in the 10-K, add a new section to your sheet and input the data. Take notes. Use the internet to your advantage. Reach out to people on GuruFocus and ask questions.

      I've been doing this for a decade; I bet I've put in more than 20,000 hours. Let me be the first to say that I still have PLENTY to learn. That was true 1, 3, 5, and 10 years ago as well. If you put in the time and have a passion for investing, I think most people will find a process that works for them.

      I hope that's helpful; I'll see if I can put together an article answering these questions in more detail.

      Thanks for the comment Lion!

       
  • The Science of Hitting commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 01-08 18:52
    Getting What You Need
    “You can’t always get you want, but sometimes you get what you need” - The Rolling Stones “A lot of people ask me what index I use to...
    View all 3 comments
    The Science of Hitting 01-08 18:52
    • Tom - Haha I saw that, pretty amazing stuff! And that sounds like a good idea to me - we clearly deserve a "reasonable" fee of 1.5% a year or so for our ingenuity. 
  • The Science of Hitting commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 01-08 08:08
    Getting What You Need
    “You can’t always get you want, but sometimes you get what you need” - The Rolling Stones “A lot of people ask me what index I use to...
    View all 1 comment
    The Science of Hitting 01-08 08:08
    • Great article Tom. Now that I know it's important, I'll make sure to keep a much closer eye on the recent trends for butter production in Bangladesh :)
  • The Science of Hitting and theoldcicero became friends 01-05 15:38
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