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beltrancaceres

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  • ry.zamora 2013-01-17 10:20
    beltrancaceres : Ry, how's the analysis of LOTO. took a tentative look at it, and it looks very promising. have you initiated a position? Hey Nick. It certainly LOOKS promising, but I swear to you, there's a very big uncertainty looming over LOTO in two months. Basically, it risks losing 40-50% of its revenues PERMANENTLY by March-end this year, because of its finance lease with the government. (It's a lessor.) If the government extends the contract or doesn't exercise its call opt ...

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All beltrancaceres's Activities

  • beltrancaceres commented on Grahamites's article 2 hr ago
    The Power of Words - Part I
    If all my possessions and powers were taken from me with one exception, I would choose to keep the power of words, because by them I would recover...
    View all 4 comments
    beltrancaceres 07-27 23:16
    • "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact" the wit, the play on word here is very very interesting, especially for first time readers of Buffett. the 1st time i read it, i was like -- "Say that again...?"

       
  • beltrancaceres commented on The Science of Hitting's article 2 hr ago
    Berkshire's GEICO Investment: "Bet Big" (Part 2)
    (This article picks up where I left off last time; see part one here) “It’s not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just...
    View all 1 comment
    beltrancaceres 07-27 23:09
    • thanks for that constant reminder, and constant inspiration from Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio). the market share increase is surely a massive value boost to Berkshire, and there's likely a good runway ahead of it still.

      One thing to note though is that -- this runway, indeed the idea of auto-insurance, could need rethinking at some point. Google's (and a host of other self-driving software efforts) self-driving project, called Google Chaffeur is touted to be live in 5 years, after some years of test-driving on the road. Google is saying it has never caused any accident, i.e. the self-driving software is 100% accurate -- although the self-driving car met a number of accidents, all of which caused by cars with human drivers that it met on the road (including one incidence where the Google employee shifted to manual driving, and caused an accident).

      GEICO's source of moat are essentially from the fact that: pricing power and regulatory requirement by nearly all states to have some minimum insurance for drivers. the second fact would be in question in case self-driving technology flourishes. But still too much unknown at this point.
  • beltrancaceres commented on The Science of Hitting's article 07-26 22:12
    Berkshire's GEICO Investment in 1976 and 1980: Lessons in Business and Investing
    I wrote an article about GEICO last November (here), but I haven’t talked too much about the company since then. In that article, I discussed some...
    View all 1 comment
    beltrancaceres 07-26 23:12
    • great write up as usual Science of Hitting. the thinking that went behind Buffett's success in GEICO is really one of the best training for the mind for would be investors. Keep it up.
  • beltrancaceres commented on Grahamites's article 07-21 21:59
    Spotting Creation of Value
    In my previous article, I shared my notes on Tom Gaynor’s talk at Google. He talked about how he went from value spotter to spotting the creation...
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    beltrancaceres 07-21 22:59
    • this is a really great synthesis of, often disparate ideas on value creation. Keep the good work up.
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