Welcome to GuruFocus Investment Space.

Please Join Us to share your investment ideas with more than 100,000 GuruFocus users.

Join      Log in

Grahamites

Subscribe
  • Premium Member
  • Totally has 457 visits

If you know Grahamites, you can leave a message, send a greeting or add him/her to your friend list. Once you become friends, you can see each other's latest updates.

Add Friend


All Ask Grahamites a Question



  • Thomas Macpherson 2015-08-11 12:12
    Grahamites: Tom I still need to figure out how to use gurufocus's personal space better. I noted your message and thanks for the nice words. I've only had 4 years
    Thanks for your note. Agreed then. We will keep learning together!
  • lawrencemconnel 2015-02-09 14:37
    Hi..just read a great article about Grantham and Marks on the drop in oil..I have not read a better article lately, but the way your site is set up I could not find a reference to the author of the article. I'm new to the site, and if I had insights like that, I would sign it..Thanks
  • cgcoss 2014-12-04 19:53
    hi Grahamites! Thank you for your post titled Naked Short Put Options - Warren Buffett's Little Secret. i had a quick question: what is your source for Buffett selling Coca Cola options? I am unable to find anything on that. again thanks for the great post!
  • aapete 2014-06-23 23:35
    Why promote a chinese stock  are you a fraud?

» More Messages

All Grahamites's Activities

  • Grahamites commented on Grahamites's article 08-26 20:27
    TransDigm: The Contemporary Doppelgänger of Capital Cities
    Transdigm is probably one of the largest companies in Cleveland that no one ever heard of. --Nick Howley, CEO of TransDigm At the end of Chapter...
    View all 8 comments
    Grahamites 08-26 21:27
    • Chaoran - In your calculation you omitted the vesting period. So if the shares are vested over 4 years, you need to expense it over 4 years. In terms of dilution, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) gave a specific example of Coca Cola during last year's annual meeting. I think that's the best explanation out there in simple maths and simple language. Hope you find it useful. 
  • Grahamites commented on Grahamites's article 08-24 09:13
    Seeking Disconfirming Evidence in Investing Research
    “And one of the great things to learn from Darwin is the value of extreme objectivity. He tried to disconfirm his ideas as soon as he got ’em....
    View all 2 comments
    Grahamites 08-24 10:13
    • Vgm - Thanks for your comments. All very good and valid points. When it comes to disconfirming evidence, in my mind we need to seperate different scenarios. There are times when our analysis is careless and superficial which contains data collection and process errors based on past financial information. Then there are times when we don't know whether we are right or wrong at the time of intial analysis because our thesis is future-events-driven. I meant to write about the second scenario but somehow drifted towards the first one. Thanks for making me realize this. 

      "pre-mortem" is a great routine.  Very wise for Berkowitz to ask independent experts to kill his ideas. Thanks for the inspiration. 
  • Grahamites commented on Grahamites's article 08-21 15:33
    TransDigm: The Contemporary Doppelgänger of Capital Cities
    Transdigm is probably one of the largest companies in Cleveland that no one ever heard of. --Nick Howley, CEO of TransDigm At the end of Chapter...
    View all 6 comments
    Grahamites 08-21 16:33
    • Hi Chaoranhu - Great comments first of all. My thoughts are - 

      1. No doubt management quality is top notch for TDG. You can totally tell from the level of disclosure. In terms of EBITDA, I've met many honest and great management teams who use that term. Maybe there's some herding and social proof. I don't know. But it certainly is easier to talk to the analysts if they speak the same EBITDA language. I would just convert EBITDA to owner's earnings or FCF and actually run a DCF ( you will need to make some serious judgment on the proper debt level though). 

      2. On your google purchase - I've written before that you can't judge a decision by outcome so don't beat yourself too hard on it. To be honest, I don't think Google's employee compensation should deter you from the action. But you are right that the accounting for equity based compensation is not simple. I would encourage you to think in true economic terms, forget about the accounting treatment, then compare what you think should be recorded versus G.A.A.P.  
  • Grahamites commented on Grahamites's article 08-20 20:36
    TransDigm: The Contemporary Doppelgänger of Capital Cities
    Transdigm is probably one of the largest companies in Cleveland that no one ever heard of. --Nick Howley, CEO of TransDigm At the end of Chapter...
    View all 4 comments
    Grahamites 08-20 21:36
    • Chaoranhu - Thanks for your thoughts-provoking comments. I'll take a stab at the EBIDA question. I've written about how EBITDA can be misleading if used inappropriately. For TDG, given the level of financial leverage, it makes sense to use an EV related metric. And if you use the traditional earnings metric such as net income, you are running the risk of under-appreciating the normalized earnings power. TDG is very Capex light so the D is very immaterial. Amortization is meaningful but I would call it non-economic amortization given the nature of the business. Buffett wrote a great piece on amortization of intangibles,which you can refer to. So I'm fine with TDG's backing out of A. Interests and Taxes are real expenses for sure and combined they make up ~ half of EBITDA. This is a legacy issue from their raising debt to pay special dividends. It would take me some time to figure out the exact math so I can't comment on it yet. But at lease TDG's management team gives a very detailed reconciliation of Net Income to adj EBITDA and operating CF to adj EBITDA so at least you can tell exactly what they are doing. It may not be the best proxy for intrinsic value, which I agree. However, I also don't think management is trying to hide something here either. 

      Hope this helps a bit. I won't be able to address your other question. You may want to contact IR for an answer. 
  • Grahamites commented on Grahamites's article 08-20 20:17
    Nestle and Capacity to Suffer
    It is no secret to the readers on this forum that I am huge admirer of Tom Russo (Trades, Portfolio) and the idea of the “capacity to suffer.”...
    View all 11 comments
    Grahamites 08-20 21:17
    • Zejia - Thanks for your comments. I can certainly write about judging a company's investment. Most of the them it's not very clear-cut due to lack of information but I'll see if I can find a good example.  
  • Grahamites commented on Grahamites's article 08-19 09:07
    Cherry Coke, See's Candy and Effortful Mental Activities
    The “healthy eating habit” of Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) and Charlie Munger (Trades, Portfolio) is no secret – both consume a...
    View all 6 comments
    Grahamites 08-19 10:07
    • Snow - I've always enjoyed your comments and appreciated your honesty. I work in the investment field so there are constrains on what I can write and what I can't write. I try to stay within the scope of investing as much as I can, mostly from a "how to thinkg and behave" perspective. Sometimes the articles may seem a little far-fetched such as this one and the power of words series. But my goal is to continuously think better and implement the multi-disciplinary approach. I'm still relatively inexperienced and ignorant. You are right that I'm not a good investor at this point although my goal is to become a superior investor over time through better process, superior thinking and hard-working. Writing certainly helps in all those regards. I can't share my holdings due to reasons I mentioned above but I can tell you that if I were running a money management business, I would invest globally in the best compounding machines, spin-offs, special situations, and maybe decent businesses at great prices. Examples would be Transdigm,Markel, Kweichow Moutai, Neslte SA, Fosun International,Hutchison Whampoa,Diageo etc. 
  • Grahamites commented on Grahamites's article 08-19 08:47
    Cherry Coke, See's Candy and Effortful Mental Activities
    The “healthy eating habit” of Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) and Charlie Munger (Trades, Portfolio) is no secret – both consume a...
    View all 5 comments
    Grahamites 08-19 09:47
    • dj - Thanks for your comments.You guess may very welll be a great guess. I probably have carried this too far. Originally I was exploring the role of glucose in terms of willpower and effortful mental activities but then I coulnd't help but think about Buffett and Munger's binge drinking of Coke. The human mind is wired to find association and causation. Sometimes I have to remind myself to stay on track:) Thanks again. 
  • Grahamites commented on Grahamites's article 08-18 21:42
    Cherry Coke, See's Candy and Effortful Mental Activities
    The “healthy eating habit” of Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) and Charlie Munger (Trades, Portfolio) is no secret – both consume a...
    View all 2 comments
    Grahamites 08-18 22:42
    • Pravchaw - Fully agreed that association and causation are different. If what was claimed by Roy Baumeister is true then it makes sense to increase daily intake of glucose from some source, not necessarily from Coke and See's Candy. A lot can be said or stipulated but the only way to test that hypothesis is to conduct some experiment. I actually consumed 5 cans of regular coke. Definitely felt the buzz in the morning but the marginal utility per can decreases significantly in the afternoon. 
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
FEEDBACK