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  • Roger Stera commented on Logan Burgess's article 04-22 03:33
    Value Investment Opportunity or Irrational Exuberance?
    It’s hard to open a Web browser this week without seeing Starbucks (SBUX). Following a report by the analysis firm Nomura (NMR), the Web has been...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-22 04:33
    • DNKN (currently 55 bucks on April 22nd, 2017) is WAY overpriced... at a price around 15-18 dollars I would try to grab some shares... for now, no way. Especially because the company has a LOT of debt (around 2.4b) and only around 200-250 mil FCF...
  • Roger Stera commented on Ben Reynolds's article 04-21 14:21
    Johnson & Johnson: Modest Price Decline Presents Buying Opportunity
    (Published by Nicholas McCullum on April 21) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is one of the most stable businesses around. The company’s statistics are...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-21 15:21
    • Thanks for the article.

      $JNJ is still one of my favorites on my watchlist, trying to buy back more when there's a decent margin of safety. For companies like these, I'd pay some more than usual (in other words, I would feel comfortable with a less broad margin of safety).

       

      If you are satisfied to add (more) JNJ to your portfolio after this decline in price depends on what kind of investor style you prefer. As a value investor I would like to see a little bit more price decline than this before I would add to my position (holding and adding JNJ since 1998!).

       

      I calculated a quick and dirty asset valuation reproduction value of around US$ 49 and an EPV (Earnings Power Valuation) of around US$ 111. With a current price of US$ 122, as said I'd like to see some more decline in its price. The FCF/DCF calculation -which can be used with pretty stable companies like these- show a much lower price of US$ 64 but that's because it's future growth and terminal rate is low. 

       

      I haven't mentioned that this stalwart also pays a nice dividend so that's also an advantage for an investor.
  • Roger Stera commented on Mark Yu's article 04-21 13:10
    A Look at Alaska Air
    Recent airplane troubles brought some attention to the industry. Nonetheless, it’s better to focus on companies who lead their corresponding...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-21 14:10
    • Thanks for the article. I owned ALK for a couple of years, together with Delta and South-West airlines. Alaska Air is a beautiful company if you're still interested in investing in airlines.

       

      (disclaimer: currently not holding ALK, DELTA, LUV no intention to do so within 72 hours)
  • Roger Stera commented on Sangara Narayanan's article 04-21 13:00
    Lululemon Joins Ranks of Poorly Performing Athletic Giants
    The athletic apparel market in the U.S. has slowed down, adding Lululemon (LULU) to the growing list of companies that see a hard road ahead due to...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-21 14:00
    • Thanks for the article.

      $LULU is not a buy at all, unless you want to spend more money than necessary.. leaving you with a poor performance on your investment.



      Why? In my opinion $LULU is a beautiful and healthy company (no debt!) but please don't forget that these are still commodity products in a very competitive environment. As the management states in their latest financial report : 


      We operate in a highly competitive market and the size and resources of some of our competitors may allow them to compete more effectively than we can, resulting in a loss of our market share and a decrease in our net revenue and profitability.


      Currently its price is US$ 53.27 which is overpriced if you ask me. A FCF/DCF will show about US$ 63 but I won't rely on these FCF projections since you're dealing with a retailer and decreasing operating margins since 2014 (2014: 24.60% to 2017: %17.96).

       

      A quick 'n'  dirty asset reproduction value gets me towards US$ 12.63, and when calculating the Earnings Power Valuation I get around US$ 45.31. No margin of safety exists here.

       

      Don't get me wrong here. It's a great company, so if you're into growth companies in the retail/sport apparal industry, then give it a shot. I'd wait for Nike ( $NKE ) and put some money in this stock when it is attractive. Just wanted to put some light on alternative aspects.

       

      Keep up the good work!
  • Roger Stera commented on Mrinalini Chaudhuri's article 04-21 12:54
    Lululemon Is a Buy
    Lululemon Athletica (LULU) posted strong third-quarter results on Dec. 7. The company beat on revenue and has updated its guidance. Its top-line...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-21 13:54
    • Thanks for the article.

      $LULU is not a real buy, unless you want to spend more money than necessary.. leaving you with a less than potential performance on your investment.



      Why? In my opinion $LULU is a beautiful and healthy company (no debt!) but please don't forget that these are still commodity products in a very competitive environment. As the management states in their latest financial report : 


      We operate in a highly competitive market and the size and resources of some of our competitors may allow them to compete more effectively than we can, resulting in a loss of our market share and a decrease in our net revenue and profitability.


      Currently its price is US$ 53.27 which is overpriced if you ask me. A FCF/DCF will show about US$ 63 but I won't rely on these FCF projections since you're dealing with a retailer and decreasing operating margins since 2014 (2014: 24.60% to 2017: %17.96).

       

      A quick 'n'  dirty asset reproduction value gets me towards US$ 12.63, and when calculating the Earnings Power Valuation I get around US$ 45.31. No margin of safety exists here.

       

      Don't get me wrong here. It's a great company, so if you're into growth companies in the retail/sport apparal industry, then give it a shot. I'd wait for Nike ( $NKE ) and put some money in this stock when it is attractive. Just wanted to put some light on alternative aspects.

       

      Keep up the good work!
  • Roger Stera commented on Robert Abbott's article 04-21 11:47
    Nuggets from Prem Watsa
    Every March, Prem Watsa (Trades, Portfolio) of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (TSX:FFH) releases his annual letter to shareholders. In it, he...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-21 12:47
    • Good article. Tnx!
  • Roger Stera commented on Mark Yu's article 04-18 02:55
    An Assessment of Royal Philips
    Royal Philips (PHG)(XAMS:PHIA), the $29.3 billion Netherlands-based company, reported its fourth quarter and fiscal 2016 annual results in January....
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-18 03:55
    • Thanks for the article. I know Philips because I've visited their sites in Eindhoven and also follow this company in the past. The company was very innovative in the 80s (KARIN, an early car navigation system, CDI, the interactive compact disc system, etc) but had its challenges in lightning and medical applicances. Be aware that this can be a very volatile ride on the long run because of its cyclical environments.
  • Roger Stera commented on Holly LaFon's article 04-18 02:50
    George Soros Doubles Stake in Sigma Designs
    Shares of Sigma Designs (SIGM) leapt 7.14% by mid-afternoon Monday, the first trading day since billionaire investor George Soros (Trades,...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-18 03:49
    • Thanks for the article. Interesting company (especially becaues it does not have any debt).. A trigger to investigate the company further. Because Soros owns a lot of similar companies, this doesn't mean Sigma will perform in the future.
  • Roger Stera commented on Ben Reynolds's article 04-17 14:35
    3 Reasons Why Cisco Is a Better Dividend Growth Stock Than Intel
    Published by Bob Ciura on April 16, 2017 The technology sector is a surprisingly good source of dividend stocks. This wasn’t always the case....
    View all 3 comments
    Roger Stera 04-17 15:35
    • Thanks for the article Ben!

       

      CSCO has its challenges when it comes to future growth but the potential is certainly there. Regarding Internet of Things/IoT (which is currently the hot buzz after we've had cloud, virtualization and such.. :-LOL) I am convinced Cisco remains as a very well prepared player in the Technology industry.

       

      In my opinion CSCO is fairly valued at this moment and -when I don't count in growth which I never do, but that's just my investment style- I'd say it doesn't offer a margin of safety I'm comfortable with. Again, this is my opinion when I calculate the asset reproduction value, epv and my views regarding tech companies.

       

      BR

      Roger

       
  • Roger Stera commented on Harsh Jain's article 04-16 16:47
    Why PepsiCo Is a Better Investment Than Coca-Cola
    Over the past few years, the soda industry has been facing several problems as consumers are increasingly moving away from sugary drinks to healthier...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-16 17:47
    • Thanks for the article.

      KO remains on my long-term watchlist, but it is currently way overpriced. I would only buy it now -under current fundamental conditions- when it is around US$ 17-22.. Unfortunately KO is facing some big challenges and at this moment is still a good company but not that great as we've seen before.
  • Roger Stera commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 04-16 15:36
    Let Your 'Fear of Heights' Protect You
    Fear of heights is often considered a psychological abnormality. In the investment world, however, it can be a downright lifesaver. Stock...
    View all 6 comments
    Roger Stera 04-16 16:36
    • Little update from my side... at a current price of US$ 102.80 (20170416) I am still convinced this stock is WAY OVERVALUED. I made a asset reproduction value (around US$ 22) and an EPV calculation (around US$ 42). Please note that the AV and EPV calculations did not take any future growth into consideration. FCF/DCF around US$ 46. 

       

      Nevertheless, looking at other ratios/metrics and the company itself (which I know pretty well)... I certainly wouldn't buy at current levels. 
  • Roger Stera commented on Jonathan Poland's article 04-15 02:46
    Whole Foods Market Keeps Getting Cheaper
    Whole Foods Market's (WFM) position has 200% growth potential from this price in the next decade, making it worth the risk. Let me start with the...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-15 03:46
    • Thanks for the article.

      At the current price it's around fair value (my opinion) so I look forward for some more discount to buy more. My asset reproduction value is around US$ 36, EPV around 65 which confirms they do something very well. 

       

      I like this company very much, started a position last December and looking forward adding more if conditions are developing according to my thoughts.

       

      (disclaimer : LONG: WFM)

       
  • Roger Stera updated contact information. 04-14 16:25
  • Roger Stera updated basic information. 04-14 16:25
  • Roger Stera commented on Marketwired's article 04-14 16:10
    UNDER ARMOUR 72 HOUR DEADLINE ALERT: APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS REMAIN; FORMER LOUISIANA ATTORNEY GENERAL AND KAHN SWICK & FOTI, LLC REMIND INVESTORS of Deadline in Class Action Lawsuit Against Under Armour, Inc. – (UA, UAA)
    NEW ORLEANS, April 07, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC ("KSF") and KSF partner, the former Attorney General of Louisiana,...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-14 17:10
    • This could be a potential chance to pick up UAA shares depending on how the price will develop.

      At a current price of US$ 19.26 and my quick 'n dirty Asset Reproduction Value (US$ 10.25) and Earnings Power Valuation (EPV) of around US$ 20, shares could look interesting for me to buy when they go lower than US$ 12-14... (depending on any future fines, developments, etc).. FCF/DCF around US$ 15 (using a 10% discount rate).

       

      It's still on my watchlist.
  • Roger Stera commented on Shadowstock's article 04-14 02:42
    Good Company for a Cheap Price
    This post began with a search for stocks hitting their 52-week lows. The DHI Group (DHX) reached its 52-week low on April 3. At $3.90 it offered...
    View all 11 comments
    Roger Stera 04-14 03:42
    • And remember... in most cases "impairment charges" typically mean the management did something (very) stupid. :-) 
  • Roger Stera commented on James Li's article 04-13 11:35
    Wells Fargo Reports Solid Earnings in 1st Quarter
    Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) reported $5.5 billion in net income and $1.00 earnings per diluted share for the quarter ending March 31. These values were...
    View all 1 comment
    Roger Stera 04-13 12:35
    • WFC stays a great and solid company. 
  • Roger Stera commented on Shadowstock's article 04-12 13:32
    Good Company for a Cheap Price
    This post began with a search for stocks hitting their 52-week lows. The DHI Group (DHX) reached its 52-week low on April 3. At $3.90 it offered...
    View all 5 comments
    Roger Stera 04-12 14:32
    • UPDATE 2017-04-12 :  Its tock price tanked 14.89% today....
  • Roger Stera commented on Shadowstock's article 04-11 04:03
    Good Company for a Cheap Price
    This post began with a search for stocks hitting their 52-week lows. The DHI Group (DHX) reached its 52-week low on April 3. At $3.90 it offered...
    View all 3 comments
    Roger Stera 04-11 05:03
    • Thanks for the article. Thought the company has quite some debt, it has FCF to pay it off more or less...

      I did a quick and dirty asset reproduction valuation (AV) and Earnings Power Valuation (EPV) because I don't like DCF/FCF (forecasting something in the future) especially for these kind of companies.

      Asset reproduction valuation of about US$ 2.52 and EPV of about US$ 1.95. The company doesn't really have a moat or an economy of scale like customer captivity. The asset valuation is more than the EPV - possibly bad management (? ) which is destroying value if you ask me.

      So I will forget EPV and look at the asset reproduction value only... I would only buy a small amount if price is covered by the asset value, which is not the case if you ask me. If it tanks to around US$ 1.75- US$ 2.00 I would consider buying it (but only if the underlying business metrics do not decrease). 
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