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Dr. Paul Price  Paul

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  • jsoumilas 2016-07-18 09:11
    Dr. Price: With the P/E multiple on the S&P being quite stretched at this point, would it make sense to purchase an ETF that is short the S&P? Have you ever done something like this?
  • thewiz12 2016-06-10 04:14
    Dr. Paul Price: I have a full article on MKL that was published on Real Money Pro  (subscription -only) this week. If you send me your e-mail address I will send you Hello Dr. Paul - I'm a MKL owner since Dec. 2009 and really enjoy your investment perspective. I'd love to read your thoughts on MKL. Thank you for offering to share: grnmtngrowth(at)outlook.com (at) replaced by @ sign of course. Just trying to avoid spam boughts from picking up my address. ...
  • Adib Motiwala 2016-06-09 06:00
    Dr. Paul Price: I have a full article on MKL that was published on Real Money Pro  (subscription -only) this week. If you send me your e-mail address I will send you
    [email protected]

  • The Science of 2016-06-07 16:57
    Dr. Paul Price: I wrote a full-fledged article on MKL today that will be published tomorrow on Real Money Pro, a subscription only site.

    If you give me your e-mail
    Dr. Paul,

    A good email to use is [email protected]

    Thanks for sharing; I look forward to seeing what you wrote.

    - Alex
  • Dr. Paul Price 2015-08-12 17:10
    The Olstein Value Fund (OFALX) looks okay to me.

» More Messages

All Dr. Paul Price's Activities

  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Mark Yu's article 20 hr ago
    Phillips 66: Time to Bail Out?
    Bloomberg recently released figures that are possibly ominous to oil refiners. According to the news agency, earnings in the oil industry this second...
    View all 1 comment
    Dr. Paul Price 07-25 16:41
    • Mark,

      Your conclusion seems to be that you have no conviction and no conclusion to offer.

      Why are you still holding your perosnal position if "ominous warning signs are visible"?

      PSX's survivability appears likely but that's not a reason to buy or hold. What is PSX worth? You never said. Without a view on that, how can you form an opinion on the stock?





  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-21 14:04
    9% Total Return in a ZIRP World. I'm In
    Revisiting Fastenal This blue-chip company offers fine risk/reward at today's quote. Industrial supply company Fastenal (FAST) rarely trades...
    View all 4 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-21 15:04
    • For a tailwind-worthy stock see today's write-up on Southwest Airlines (LUV).
  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-20 18:47
    Buy Perrigo After a Big Selloff? Absolutely!
    Many traders refuse to buy stocks that offer great value simply because their charts have been weak. They cling to the idea that “the market”...
    View all 6 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-20 19:47
    • I'm still holding PRGO waiting to see how things turn out.

      The price drop, hopefully, more than discounts the bad news but predictability is now less than expected.


  • Dr. Paul Price posts: 07-20 16:34
    Yield and Upside in a Low-Risk Package
    Relative value is now "good enough" in a ZIRP...
  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-20 03:51
    The Bright Side of Oil and Gas Pains
    The Bright Side of Oil and Gas Pains GWW's pullback more than discounts the temporary bad news Petroleum-related businesses are down across the...
    View all 5 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-20 04:51
    • Thse who wrote (sold) these GWW April $190 or $200 puts ended up with their best-case scenarios. The stock finished well above those prices meaning you kept 100% of all preimum received without needing to buy any shares.

      As of Jul. 19, 2016 GWW closed at $225.31. 



  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 07-19 16:00
    ARM We Hardly Knew 'Ya
    Softbank (TSE:9984) announced on July 18 it was acquiring ARM Holdings (ARMH) for $32 billion in an all-cash deal. The sale price was approximately a...
    View all 1 comment
    Dr. Paul Price 07-19 17:00
    • Great pick. Congrats.

  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Ben Reynolds's article 07-17 15:11
    How to Calculate Expected Total Return for Any Stock
    The goal of rational investors is to maximize total return under a given set of constraints. Constraints include: Risk tolerance. Current income...
    View all 1 comment
    Dr. Paul Price 07-17 16:11
    • Coca-Cola might have been a very bad example to use in this exercise.

      According to Value Line data (dated Jul. 22, 2016 but released on line today):

      KO's corporate net profit in 2010 was............. $8.922 billion

                     KO's net profit in 2015 was............ $8.797 billion

               KO's Estimated 2016 net profit.............$8.555 billion

      Back in 2010 most people proejcted Coke to show higher, not lower, earnings over time. Using your formula back then would have been pretty useless in predicting future returns on KO.

      Formulas are only as good as the input data is reliable.GIGO [garbage in; garbage out> applies. 


  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Holly LaFon's article 07-17 11:00
    Muhlenkamp & Company's 2nd Quarter Letter
    During the second quarter, we earned an average return of -1.35%. For comparison, over the same time period, the S&P 500 Indexreturned 2.46%, the...
    View all 2 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-17 12:00
    • The Muhlenkamp Fund has been absolutely horrible for more than 10-years.

      Ron should have addressed his failings and what he is doing to fix them rather than b**l sh**ting about the state of the markets, which he is obviously out of touch with.


  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Naman Shukla's article 07-15 15:14
    Can McDonald’s Continue Inching Higher?
    McDonald’s (MCD) has performed very nicely ever since there was a change in the CEO position. New CEO Steve Easterbrook has turned the company...
    View all 1 comment
    Dr. Paul Price 07-15 16:14
    • What is MCD worth?
  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-15 04:56
    Stop the Presses!
    All discussions about the legality of “monetizing America’s debt” or holding to congressionally imposed “debt ceiling limits” were...
    View all 13 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-15 05:56
    • Articially set  (by central banks- not markets) negative coupons in Europe and essentially 0% rates on Japanese bonds has made America's bonds look good by comparison, despite historically low coupons here as well.

      Auction market prices are no longer in effect (in terms of rate discovery) when 80% or more of many of the newly issued bonds are being scooped up by the Fed, the JCP and the ECB, not the private market.

      More buying demand = lower rates but it says nothing about the credit-worthiness of the issuing bodies. Corporate junk bonds are paying way less than what would be "fair market interest rates" simply becuase income-starved people, insurnace companies,pension plans etc. must buy whatever is available even if credit risk makes the coupons look like bad deals. 

      Who would be willing to buy soverign debt at today's prices if the "whatever it takes" promise did not imply no risk of default? Access to credit that should be granted fosters spending that could, and should, never be done as it represents unaffordable outlays. 

      Iceland, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy have already experienced fiscal crisis. Deutsche Bank (DB) teters on the brink of bankruptcy with leverage well above what brought down Lehman in 2009. Most of the world is simply delaying their days of reckoning by kicking the can further down the road.

      Bernie Madoff and his customers were all fat and happy until his fraud was exposed. The world is hiding in a "head in the sand / everything is okay" phase that is still possible up until the time when the SHTF.



  • Dr. Paul Price and jleslie became friends 07-15 04:32
  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-14 19:59
    Stop the Presses!
    All discussions about the legality of “monetizing America’s debt” or holding to congressionally imposed “debt ceiling limits” were...
    View all 11 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-14 20:59
    • MG,

      Unfortunately, risk-free asset classes are a thing of the past. Even gold prices have been undermined by "paper gold" in the form of ETFs and futures contracts, that now equals more than 300x the amount of deliverable physical metal.

      It sounds like your current portfolio is positioned about as well as it can be.

      Like all confidnce schemes the current one will end when poeple get wise to what is actually going on. Timing that moment is impossible to predict. It could happen quickly or be pushed out to years from today. The world's financial foundations are being built on quicksand.



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