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2016-07-21

2016-07-20

2016-07-19

2016-07-17

  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Ben Reynolds's article 07-17 15:11
    How to Calculate Expected Total Return for Any Stock
    The goal of rational investors is to maximize total return under a given set of constraints. Constraints include: Risk tolerance. Current income...
    View all 1 comment
    Dr. Paul Price 07-17 16:11
    • Coca-Cola might have been a very bad example to use in this exercise.

      According to Value Line data (dated Jul. 22, 2016 but released on line today):

      KO's corporate net profit in 2010 was............. $8.922 billion

                     KO's net profit in 2015 was............ $8.797 billion

               KO's Estimated 2016 net profit.............$8.555 billion

      Back in 2010 most people proejcted Coke to show higher, not lower, earnings over time. Using your formula back then would have been pretty useless in predicting future returns on KO.

      Formulas are only as good as the input data is reliable.GIGO [garbage in; garbage out> applies. 

       

       
  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Holly LaFon's article 07-17 11:00
    Muhlenkamp & Company's 2nd Quarter Letter
    During the second quarter, we earned an average return of -1.35%. For comparison, over the same time period, the S&P 500 Indexreturned 2.46%, the...
    View all 2 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-17 12:00
    • The Muhlenkamp Fund has been absolutely horrible for more than 10-years.

      Ron should have addressed his failings and what he is doing to fix them rather than b**l sh**ting about the state of the markets, which he is obviously out of touch with.

       

       

2016-07-15

  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Naman Shukla's article 07-15 15:14
    Can McDonald’s Continue Inching Higher?
    McDonald’s (MCD) has performed very nicely ever since there was a change in the CEO position. New CEO Steve Easterbrook has turned the company...
    View all 1 comment
    Dr. Paul Price 07-15 16:14
    • What is MCD worth?
  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-15 04:56
    Stop the Presses!
    All discussions about the legality of “monetizing America’s debt” or holding to congressionally imposed “debt ceiling limits” were...
    View all 13 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-15 05:56
    • Articially set  (by central banks- not markets) negative coupons in Europe and essentially 0% rates on Japanese bonds has made America's bonds look good by comparison, despite historically low coupons here as well.

      Auction market prices are no longer in effect (in terms of rate discovery) when 80% or more of many of the newly issued bonds are being scooped up by the Fed, the JCP and the ECB, not the private market.

      More buying demand = lower rates but it says nothing about the credit-worthiness of the issuing bodies. Corporate junk bonds are paying way less than what would be "fair market interest rates" simply becuase income-starved people, insurnace companies,pension plans etc. must buy whatever is available even if credit risk makes the coupons look like bad deals. 

      Who would be willing to buy soverign debt at today's prices if the "whatever it takes" promise did not imply no risk of default? Access to credit that should be granted fosters spending that could, and should, never be done as it represents unaffordable outlays. 

      Iceland, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy have already experienced fiscal crisis. Deutsche Bank (DB) teters on the brink of bankruptcy with leverage well above what brought down Lehman in 2009. Most of the world is simply delaying their days of reckoning by kicking the can further down the road.

      Bernie Madoff and his customers were all fat and happy until his fraud was exposed. The world is hiding in a "head in the sand / everything is okay" phase that is still possible up until the time when the SHTF.

       

       

       
  • Dr. Paul Price and jleslie became friends 07-15 04:32

2016-07-14

  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-14 19:59
    Stop the Presses!
    All discussions about the legality of “monetizing America’s debt” or holding to congressionally imposed “debt ceiling limits” were...
    View all 11 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-14 20:59
    • MG,

      Unfortunately, risk-free asset classes are a thing of the past. Even gold prices have been undermined by "paper gold" in the form of ETFs and futures contracts, that now equals more than 300x the amount of deliverable physical metal.

      It sounds like your current portfolio is positioned about as well as it can be.

      Like all confidnce schemes the current one will end when poeple get wise to what is actually going on. Timing that moment is impossible to predict. It could happen quickly or be pushed out to years from today. The world's financial foundations are being built on quicksand.

       

       

       

2016-07-13

  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-13 21:24
    Stop the Presses!
    All discussions about the legality of “monetizing America’s debt” or holding to congressionally imposed “debt ceiling limits” were...
    View all 7 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-13 22:24
    • Swnyc2

      I agree.

      Owning real assets like shares of healthy companies and/or real estate is by far the best choice in the current environment. Corporations can raise prices to counter inflation. Fiat-based money will continue to erode in value.

       

       
  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-13 19:52
    Stop the Presses!
    All discussions about the legality of “monetizing America’s debt” or holding to congressionally imposed “debt ceiling limits” were...
    View all 4 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-13 20:51
    • If you believe inflation is truly 2%... I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.

      See Shadowstats.com for an alternative to the BLS numbers. Better yet go over your own household's true cost of living versus a few years ago. Our fearless leaders continue to alter the methods for calculating CPI to undermine its validity.

      They have also inflated GDP by changing the rules on what counts in order to lower their published debt/GDP ratio. 

      Read my earlier GuruFocus article for further details...

      http://www.gurufocus.com/news/417945

       

       

       
  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-13 16:31
    Stop the Presses!
    All discussions about the legality of “monetizing America’s debt” or holding to congressionally imposed “debt ceiling limits” were...
    View all 2 comments
    Dr. Paul Price 07-13 17:31
    • More dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services translates into inflation. 

      Ther BLS CPI-U numbers are bogus and designed to obscure the destructive force of QE. True inflation is, and has been., much higher than is officially reported.

      "Who gains?"  you asked. The government is the only direct beneficiary of the "free money" created by the Fed. The money created goes toward paying for deficit spending. All the bounty goes to Washington, Tokyo, London, etc. via central bank printing while 100% of the hidden devaluation is heaped on those who did the right thing and saved some of their money.

      Negative rates (NIRP) are nothing less than a further, more transparent, tax on savings. At a negative 0.4% rate, 1000 euro becomes 960 after a year. You would then have less nominal currency to pay for what will almost certainly be higher absolute prices for almost everything you want or need. 

       

2016-07-12

  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Ben Reynolds's article 07-12 21:09
    Dividend Investing in a Roth IRA
    Reducing your investing fees is the best way to generate higher total returns. Most investors focus on minimizing fees from their brokerages. If you...
    View all 1 comment
    Dr. Paul Price 07-12 22:09
    • You wrote, 


      Distribution must be made after the five-year period beginning with the first tax year you contributed to the Roth IRA.


      I know you mean that to remain tax and penalty-free 5-years must elaspe since the Roth was first funded. 

      Many people might think it means you MUST take mandatory distributions starting 5-years after inception. 

      You need clearer language on this.

       
  • Dr. Paul Price and bryand24 became friends 07-12 19:11
  • Dr. Paul Price commented on Nelson Hsu's article 07-12 10:08
    Polaris Industries Is a High Risk / High Reward Stock
    Polaris Industries (PII) is an impressive company with a track record of growth. The company sells off-road vehicles (ORV), snowmobiles, motorcycles...
    View all 1 comment
    Dr. Paul Price 07-12 11:08
    • PII was hurt predominantly because sales of snow mobiles and ATVs to oil-rich areas like the northern mid-American states and Canada were devasted by the huge drop in crude oil prices. Massive income reductions and job losses led to reduced purchasing power, not lack of "demand".

      Polaris is a back-door play on a recovery in oil.

      It appears to offer outstanding upside as oil prices ultimately recover.

       

       

       

       
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