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  • vgm commented on MritikCapital's article 22 hr ago
    Brookfield – Real Assets Real Returns
    I have been following Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) for the last three years, and I like their approach of investing in long-lasting real assets...
    View all 19 comments
    vgm 06-17 04:36
    • Thanks Mritik.

      I think we can expect significant additional strategic selling from Brookfield in the near future. This is a comment from Bruce Flatt in a recent QnA:

      "...generally at the bottom of the market, you own assets and you buy assets and we bought a lot of assets in '09, '10, '11. And you end up with a lot of, I'll call it non-core and tertiary assets, that you otherwise might have sold at the time. But because the markets aren't liquid, there either is not a market to sell them or secondly, you don't like the price.

      As markets inflate over time, as the recovery happens, you can harvest capital from those. And so a lot of the cash raising we're doing in many places is getting rid of the tertiary or non-core things that came along with other acquisitions. And it's a lot of capital. And it will be poured back into great long-term real estate,infrastructure and other businesses we have or into our private equity investments, which eventually or sometimes form the basis of our other businesses."

      http://www.brookfield.com/_Global/42/documents/relatedlinks/5659.pdf

  • vgm commented on MritikCapital's article 06-14 06:59
    Brookfield – Real Assets Real Returns
    I have been following Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) for the last three years, and I like their approach of investing in long-lasting real assets...
    View all 14 comments
    vgm 06-14 07:59
    • Mritik,

      Thanks, yes, great presentation. I saw it at the time. Marty Whitman is a big fan of Bruce Flatt and Brookfield. It's a fabulous company.

      Any thoughts on the issue of the new preferreds?
      http://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-completes-c-200-million-120500113.html
  • vgm commented on ricardo_1972's topic 06-13 15:03
    New europe and spanish guru
    I would suggest Francisco Parames from Bestinver Asset Management. Bestinver Bolsa is the only spanish fund that has outperform the Ibex 35 index,...
    View all 1 comment
    vgm 06-13 16:03
    • I would be very enthusiastic about including Parames and Bestinver. Excellent idea!
  • vgm commented on David Chulak's article 06-13 14:57
    Caution: Various Lanes Closed Ahead
    “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to...
    View all 2 comments
    vgm 06-13 15:57
    • Yes, very timely piece. Thanks for the stimulation. Your point about macro forecasts is well taken:
      "The study of macroeconomics is interesting, but is horrible for predictive ability.... economists being able to predict the future is absolute nonsense."

      On the subject of bull markets and defining maximum optimism, the approach of the final stage of euphoria in the markets is arguably not so difficult to identify, at least in some instances. It can be a condition wherein valuations are dramatically and ridiculously high and completely unhinged from reality. The dotcom bubble personified that: virtual companies with no earnings yet giant market caps, and real companies (Cisco etc) with astronomical triple-digit PE ratios. Many value investors like Buffett recognized it as craziness and were publicly warning against it. What drove the final stage to its euphoric climax was the greedy mindless herd who had no concept of risk (or investing).

      But at the same time as anything tech was being bid up to the sky, traditional stocks were being ignored by the masses and so their valuations were absurdly low. Value investors picked them up. In other words the euphoria was not market wide, but mainly in tech. To use your metaphor, while some lanes were jammed with traffic, others were not only open and empty but got wider! And it supports your point of getting mentally prepared in advance for lanes opening.

      Just some thoughts...
  • vgm commented on Monica Wolfe's article 06-13 04:31
    Carl Icahn's Newest Charity Case
    Carl Icahn is particularly well-known for buying into companies and holding positions which allow him to criticize and alter the upper management of...
    View all 1 comment
    vgm 06-13 05:31
    • Monica - given the massively successful track record of Carl Icahn over an unusually long period, I find the title and tone of your article to be more than a little disingenuous. You're very much missing the point. An article seriously analyzing what he does and how would've been worthwhile.
  • vgm commented on GuruFocus's article 06-12 14:56
    John Hussman Weekly Comment: 2009 vs. 2013
    Let’s begin with a reminder of where we are in the market cycle. At present, the stock market is in a mature, heavily bullish, overbought,...
    View all 4 comments
    vgm 06-12 15:56
    • Alberta - when the average joe investor thinks he/she can predict market direction, worries about short term market movements and bases investment decisions on them, as in your commentary, then it's getting silly. You're unaware of your own folly.

      LwC - you mean Hussman should be attending a value investing conference instead to learn something useful? Good idea. And his clients would no doubt wish for it too.
  • vgm commented on John Huber's article 06-12 14:43
    My Investment Checklist
    A few different readers have asked about checklists and whether I use one. I have started to recently, and have found it helpful. A year or two ago I...
    View all 3 comments
    vgm 06-12 15:43
    • John, Raman,

      Isn't the answer to the question ''will it double?'' the natural outcome of other factors - for example, FCF yield plus expected growth?
  • vgm commented on John Emerson's article 06-12 13:25
    A Discussion of Share Buybacks and Capital Allocation
    “There is only one combination of facts that makes it advisable for a company to repurchase its shares: First, the company has available funds —...
    View all 1 comment
    vgm 06-12 14:25
    • Nice article. Important topic. Thanks.

      Buffett gave buybacks considerable space in his 2011 Letter (starts page 6), using IBM as a quantitative example. I think it nicely complements the present article:

      http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
  • vgm commented on Canadian Value's article 06-11 06:09
    Jeremy Grantham's 10 Lessons for Retail Investors
    I was reading through some of my notes taken from Jeremy Grantham's quarterly letters when I came across his 10 lessons for retail investors...
    View all 1 comment
    vgm 06-11 07:08
    • Could be combined with Byron Wien's 20 lessons learned during his investing career, courtesy of Market Folly:

      http://www.marketfolly.com/
  • vgm commented on MritikCapital's article 06-08 17:15
    Chesapeake Energy – Ready to Rise
    One of the gurus I pay attention to is Bruce Berkowitz who is the manager of Fairholme Funds and famed for his analysis and sticking to his...
    View all 13 comments
    vgm 06-08 18:15
    • "I am wondering how SandRidge Energy compares with CHK from a valuation perspective."

      There's so much negative sentiment around SD that I'd be willing to bet it's significantly undervalued.

      Prem Watsa's ownership has always puzzled me, since, from the outside, Ward's behavior seems reprehensible (a la McClendon - Ward and McClendon were at CHK together). It's not like Carl Icahn taking a chunk of CHK to go in as an activist to fix governance. On the contrary - Watsa stated at the recent Fairfax annual that he has complete faith in Ward and that Fairfax would be keen to own any other company that Ward might lead.

      Have you looked at Exco? It also has been beaten down and has an impressive cadre of major shareholders - including Wilbur Ross, Howard Marks, Prem Watsa and Chuck Akre. It currently trades just above $8. Wilbur's cost basis is well above that. In 2011 there was an attempted but thwarted management buyout around $21. Like CHK and SD, XCO is suffering from low nat gas pricing.
  • vgm commented on MritikCapital's article 06-07 09:44
    Brookfield – Real Assets Real Returns
    I have been following Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) for the last three years, and I like their approach of investing in long-lasting real assets...
    View all 8 comments
    vgm 06-07 10:44
    • I thought he'd sold them. There's a list of major holders at the end of this BAM presentation from Aug 2012. Fairholme is not listed:
      https://www.brookfield.com/_Global/42/img/content/Corporate%20Profile%20-%20August%202012.pdf
  • vgm commented on Holly LaFon's article 06-06 14:10
    Wilbur Ross Speaks to Bloomberg's Liu About Strategy, Europe and US Economies

    View all 1 comment
    vgm 06-06 15:10
    • Ten stars! Always a pleasure to listen to Wilbur's views.
      Thanks.
  • vgm commented on John Huber's article 06-06 04:05
    Three Categories of Risk to Keep in Mind When Investing
    Warren Buffett said there are just two rules of investing: No. 1: Don't lose money.No. 2: Don't forget rule No. 1.That's a tongue-in-cheek,...
    View all 2 comments
    vgm 06-06 05:05
    • John,

      I wonder if 'management risk' might be considered a sub-category of business risk. You mention the risk involved with financials in 2007. In retrospect it came down to the ability and integrity of managements - and lack thereof. JPM and Wells came thru unscathed, due to outstanding managers and culture in those institutions, whereas the Citis, Bears and Lehmans all crashed to a greater or lesser extent because of reckless behavior at the top which permeated the culture of those organizations. In addition to being value investor extraordinaire, Buffett excels in assessing people.

      Having just read The Outsiders, I've become even more convinced than before of the importance of managements who strive for growth in per share value for shareholders thru shrewd capital allocation.

      Like Enjoylife, I also appreciate your thoughtful and stimulating posts. Keep up the good work!
  • vgm commented on Canadian Value's article 06-05 15:10
    Charles Brandes - The Market Has Taught Me to Ignore the Market Most of the Time
    Value investor Charles Brandes was interviewed by Business Outlook India: Volatility, they say, is a friend of value investors. But the crisis of...
    View all 1 comment
    vgm 06-05 16:09
    • Brandes gives interesting interviews. I like his last comment:

      "So long as human nature doesn’t change (and we see absolutely no signs of that happening), value investing will likely prove to be a very effective long-term investment strategy."

      Thanks for posting!
  • vgm commented on whopper investments's article 06-05 03:53
    Value investing: it's easy until you do it by yourself
    Last week, I posted an article on Lakeland (LAKE) suggesting it was awfully undervalued. If you believe in the article’s hypothesis, then, in...
    View all 5 comments
    vgm 06-05 04:53
    • "If you love your stocks, you will buy them when everybody else loathes them."

      I think I understand what Batbeer means, but to be precise, what we're really talking about is 'loving' the BUSINESS and the PRICE, not the stock. When Buffett bought AXP he knew his analysis was superior to Mr Market's, he knew it was a great business, and he knew the price encompassed a substantial margin of safety. He therefore got greedy when others were fearful. But his greed should not be construed as something emotional. Rather, it was a decision reflecting his confidence backed by hard-headed analysis and understanding.

      There's an old adage about not falling in love with our stocks. It can lead to complacency and diminish our capacity to remain objective.
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