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2016-12-01

  • vgm commented on Holmes Osborne, CFA's article 12-01 13:39
    Unilever's Stock on Sale with Short-Term Issues
    Unilever’s (UN) stock has taken a hit with Brexit and a brush with Tesco (TSCDY). The stock is reasonably priced, and the company is one of the...
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    vgm 12-01 13:39
    • Holmes - it's highly dependent upon where the stock was traded. I'm in the UK it where it trades as ULVR.L on Yahoo. ULVR started to rise a few days before the Brexit referendum and never dipped - and on the day after the result it soared and then plateaued for weeks. Do a comparison of UN versus ULVR.L on Yahoo and you'll see.

      It's important to differentiate currency moves from business fundamentals in an analysis in order to derive valid conclusions.

      PS I think you mean Lidl, not Lyttle?

2016-11-27

  • vgm commented on The Science of Hitting's article 11-27 17:33
    Use Analyst Reports - But Not Their Price Targets
    I am currently reading “Value Investing with the Masters,” a book from the early 2000s with a collection of interviews. I have come across a...
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    vgm 11-27 17:33
    • Science - I am a subscriber at the basic level. I think the cost of my membership is good value. There are regular features and themes and interviews in addition to in-depth company analyses. It issues monthly. They also run online conferences where members get a discount and the presentations, including slides, are available for several months on the website.

      Mohnish Pabrai (Trades, Portfolio) and Guy Spier are huge MoI fans and think it the best publication of its kind. 

      I need to be selective in reading it, because I'm not a financial professional, and there's a lot of information to digest. If you're interested you could give it a try for a year. I'm sure John Mihaljevic would give you a sample copy to peruse.
  • vgm commented on The Science of Hitting's article 11-27 15:52
    Use Analyst Reports - But Not Their Price Targets
    I am currently reading “Value Investing with the Masters,” a book from the early 2000s with a collection of interviews. I have come across a...
    View all 5 comments
    vgm 11-27 15:52
    • Thanks for another interesting article, Science.

      I think Patraq makes an important point. A range of target prices, based on a range of outcomes, is critical in any analysis. A publication which does just that is Manual of Ideas, which many here will be familiar with. When MoI analyzes a company, they provide three estimates of valuation: conservative, base, and aggressive. And they provide the inputs to support each of those scenarios.

      Yogi Berra might agree that a range of outcomes is possible: "Predictions are difficult - especially about the future."

2016-11-21

  • vgm commented on Holmes Osborne, CFA's article 11-21 17:17
    Unilever's Stock on Sale with Short-Term Issues
    Unilever’s (UN) stock has taken a hit with Brexit and a brush with Tesco (TSCDY). The stock is reasonably priced, and the company is one of the...
    View all 2 comments
    vgm 11-21 17:17
    • Thanks for the interesting article.

      You write: "The shares have gotten pummeled with Brexit and the run in with Tesco."

      The stock price actually soared after the Brexit vote and has remained high until recently. How do you rationalize your Brexit implication? Is the Tesco altercation solely to blame?
  • vgm commented on Holly LaFon's article 11-21 14:22
    Warren Buffett Buys Airlines, but Ray Dalio Sells Out
    Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) caused a stir in the past month when he softened his previous negativity about airlines and bought shares of...
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    vgm 11-21 14:22
    • Not Buffett! Title needs to be changed.

      These are Combs and/or Weschler buys.
  • vgm commented on Grahamites's article 11-21 12:36
    Thoughts on Media Companies
    U.S media stocks have been under pressure for quite a while. Exacerbating the fear was some comments from Disney’s CEO Bob Iger during Disney’s...
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    vgm 11-21 12:36
    • Thanks for the stimulation, Grahamites. Thought-provoking.

      This extended interview with John Malone from just a few days ago may be worth throwing into the discussion. Among many other things, he speculates on Disney's future:

      http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000567154
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