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Thomas Macpherson  Thomas Macpherson

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  • Grahamites 2015-08-10 21:46
    Tom I still need to figure out how to use gurufocus's personal space better. I noted your message and thanks for the nice words. I've only had 4 years experiences in value investing so I can guarantee you that you are much more experienced than I am. Maybe we can agree that learning is mutual. Best of wishes at Dorfman!Looking forward to more of your articles.
  • Robert Abbott 2015-06-08 16:42
    Thomas Macphers: Hi Bob. Thanks so much for your very kind note. First, let me say good luck on your new venture. I hope it is everything that will make you happy and
    Omaha sounds like a great idea. Best wishes, Bob
  • Robert Abbott 2015-06-07 19:38
    Hi Tom - I'm about to take a break from writing, with a temporary, full-time job for probably the next six to 12 months. As I withdraw for now, I wanted to let you know your encouraging comments and feedback have been appreciated very much. And your articles have been thought-provoking, including the recent one about moving into cash; it synchs with my own interest in downside protection tactics, with everything from simple stops to option collars. Anyway, keep up the good work; I'll keep readin ...
  • Thomas Macpherson 2015-05-01 07:20
    No problem my friend! I just wanted to hear your feedback and make my writing better. Thanks for your very kind words. My best wishes. Tom
  • ramos285 2015-05-01 04:35
    HI Thomas there is a mixup. Your articles are extraordinary'm always waiting for new articles. I have learned a lot from them. Now after your email already know how to classify with 5 stars so far thought they could only by a star but already know how to put 5 stars. your articles are 5 star all of them.

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All Thomas Macpherson's Activities

  • Thomas Macpherson updated basic information. 09-03 05:13
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on The Science of Hitting's article 09-02 12:13
    Weight Watchers: Three Takeaways From the Second Quarter
    Weight Watchers (WTW) recently reported second quarter results, and there were a few things that caught my eye. Just to be clear, this isn’t a...
    View all 19 comments
    Thomas Macpherson 09-02 13:13
    • Great stuff Idaustin. Thanks so much for posting.
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 09-02 11:09
    Extreme Markets and Decision Making
    In 1815 at the battle of Waterloo, forces of the Allies defeated the Napoleonic forces in a violent two-day battle. The leader of the British forces,...
    View all 11 comments
    Thomas Macpherson 09-02 12:09
    • Hi Adib. Thanks so much for your questions. I think the answer would certainly be more of # 1 than #2. If I was completely honest I would say the thinking behind letting the stock ride up to 40% above fair value would be:

      40% - We are conservative in our estimates and we are comfortable we still have a margin of safety (albeit much smaller). 

      40% - Sloth, Indolence, and Taxes: We are frequently not watching the markets enough to sometimes see these upwards movement. In addition we rarely like to take capital gains so we probably hold longer than we should.

      20% - Anchoring: It's incredibly hard to see a stock leave your portfolio after a long, succeful run. Though this is entirely counterproductive, we likely suffer from it just as much as everyone else.  

      Hope this helps. Thanks again for your great questions. Best - Tom
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 08-28 10:55
    Extreme Markets and Decision Making
    In 1815 at the battle of Waterloo, forces of the Allies defeated the Napoleonic forces in a violent two-day battle. The leader of the British forces,...
    View all 7 comments
    Thomas Macpherson 08-28 11:55
    • Hi Tony: Thanks so much for your comment. I'm still here (some may see this as a negative!) and regularly writing for GF. Nintai Partners has officially dissolved and I'm currently CIO of the Nintai Charitable Trust. In addition, I've been working with Dorfman Value Investments (John is a writer here on GF) as Director of Marketing. I'm currently getting ready to pass the Series 65 and become a more traditional RIA in the next quarter. Thanks again for your comment. Best. - Tom
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 08-28 10:50
    Extreme Markets and Decision Making
    In 1815 at the battle of Waterloo, forces of the Allies defeated the Napoleonic forces in a violent two-day battle. The leader of the British forces,...
    View all 6 comments
    Thomas Macpherson 08-28 11:50
    • DJ and Carlos: Thanks so much for your comments. Glad you enjoyed the article. As we reviewed our thinking, it suddenly dawned us that confirmation bias can kill you in both selling AND buying for the wrong reasons during down markets. It isn't discussed much but we have a feeling it's far more prelevant than we think. Another example of this was a litany of famous value investors doubling down on financial stocks in 2008-2009. We would posit that many thought purchasing additional shares was taking advantage of a market downturn (confirmation bias because it had always worked) versus really evaluating the fundamentals behind the business (such as credit risk). Thanks again for your comments. Best. - Tom
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 08-27 20:24
    Extreme Markets and Decision Making
    In 1815 at the battle of Waterloo, forces of the Allies defeated the Napoleonic forces in a violent two-day battle. The leader of the British forces,...
    View all 2 comments
    Thomas Macpherson 08-27 21:24
    • Hi Paul. Thanks so much for your comment. We sold 25% of the position in July and decided to hold on to the rest. We generally sell 25-50% when we reach a 15-20% above fair value and sell out entirely at 140% (like we did with FDS and MANH). To your point - and with 20/20 hindsight - we likely should have sold the entire position. Perhaps a bit of anchoring held us back. As of now we will hold on for the foreseeable future. Thanks again for your comment. Best. - Tom
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 08-25 20:36
    Invest When You Feel the Worst
    Most of the damage has already been done. If the stock market climbs a wall of worry, then we’re certainly primed for better news. There is...
    View all 5 comments
    Thomas Macpherson 08-25 21:36
    • Thanks Paul for a very timely article. No matter how many times we hear it, the simple fact is that buying low and selling high can go against every emotional fear we face. We still don't see many deals but we look forward to future down days. Best - Tom
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on Benjamin Clark's article 08-25 18:56
    The Best Companies of the Software Industry – August 2015
    While ModernGraham supports the bottom-up approach to investing, many investors do utilize the top-down method, whereby an industry is selected...
    View all 1 comment
    Thomas Macpherson 08-25 19:56
    • Hi Benjamin. Great article as usual. We've owned ANSS since 2008 and agree its valuation has crept up. We still think its roughly fair valued but wouldn't be a buyer in the near term. Thanks again. Best - Tom
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on John Huber's article 08-24 11:03
    In Times of Market Panic
    I just thought I’d put up a quick post as it’s Sunday night and I’m getting ready for the week and listing some things I’m going to be...
    View all 1 comment
    Thomas Macpherson 08-24 12:03
    • Great article as always John. Thanks for the most interesting data and perspectives. Best. - Tom
  • Thomas Macpherson commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 08-24 11:00
    Nintai Charitable Trust: Portfolio Changes
    This year was truly a year of change at Nintai. Not only have we closed down our management consulting arm and internal fund, but we have created the...
    View all 2 comments
    Thomas Macpherson 08-24 12:00
    • Hi Beltrancaceres: Thanks so much for your comment. FDS and MANH were long term holdings and have helped Nintai provide adequate returns for our investots. The articles discussing these sales can be found here (http://www.gurufocus.com/news/331405) and here (http://www.gurufocus.com/news/317556). We try to be extraordinarily patient investors. The average holding period for our positions is 7.2 years. The turnover this year has been significantly higher than normal because we felt many of our positions had reached nose bleed levels and we sold accordingly.

      As to the Charitable Trust (without getting into specific US tax law) individuals can set up two different trusts -  Charitable Remainder or Charitable Lead Trusts. Either can be created by individuals. Nintai has always donated 10% of all net income to charity so I see this as a continuation of that policy on an individual basis. Hope this addresses your comments. Thanks again. Best. - Tom
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