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  • pravchaw commented on Ken McGaha's article 6 hr ago
    Autodesk: A Great Example Of A Good Business And A Bad Investement
    Not all bad investments are made in bad businesses and not all good businesses are good investments. There are a multitude of factors that go into...
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    pravchaw 08-01 09:31
    • Good article and thanks for drawing attention to the management comp issue.  Something is rotten with this company.
  • pravchaw commented on Jonathan Poland's article 6 hr ago
    Why Does Big Money Own Corning?
      Corning (GLW) has had very disappointing LCD sales Financial growth has not translated into price growth Great for consumers but a long term...
    View all 1 comment
    pravchaw 08-01 09:19
    • The reason why big money hold GLW is because of "cash return".  GLW generates great cash flows.  However it has very high capex requirements as well as low ROIC and high WACC which holds it back.  The solution is to "consolidate" the industry.  As the most profitable player in the industry it can either buy our its rivals or put them out of business by innovation or undercutting them in cost (easier said than done).  However other industries have done that, i.e., DRAM, CPU's etc where a handful of oligopolistic competitors hold sway and maintain high barriers to entry.

      Watch for GLW to go below $15.  It would be a strong buy then.  After that just wait for the business cycle patiently and collect the dividend.
  • pravchaw commented on Sure Dividend's article 7 hr ago
    Capitalize On Canada’s Wireless Oligopoly Now with BCE’s 5.2% Dividend Yield
    Canada has a population of over 35 million. The wireless telecommunications industry in Canada is similar to that in the United States. The...
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    pravchaw 08-01 08:10
    • Good article.  In fact, one can buy Bell as well as Rogers and Telus to get the entire market.  
  • pravchaw made a stock note of $AMG: Growth, undervalued 7 hr ago
    $AMG: Growth, undervalued
    Comment

2015-07-28

  • pravchaw commented on Christopher Batts's article 07-28 17:38
    Aflac – Is USA the new Japan?
    Is USA the new Japan? The U.S. might be nothing like Japan in most areas of comparison, but the medical insurance market is an exception. In 1961,...
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    pravchaw 07-28 18:38
    • Sorry, I did not mean to be abrupt - my criticism was meant to be constructive.  Since AFL writes a majority of insurance contracts in Japan I think there are regulatory and business reasons to keep the investments in Yens.  They have to match investments with future liabilties.

      I don't think Japan's socialized medical system is like the US - in fact its more like Europe, Canada, Australia etc. 

      AFL mainly sells cancer insurance in Japan - why it suceeded there and not other countries is related to cultural and psychological reasons which may not be easily duplicated.

      http://qz.com/114832/aflac-japan-cancer-insurance/
  • pravchaw commented on Christopher Batts's article 07-28 09:06
    Aflac – Is USA the new Japan?
    Is USA the new Japan? The U.S. might be nothing like Japan in most areas of comparison, but the medical insurance market is an exception. In 1961,...
    View all 2 comments
    pravchaw 07-28 10:06
    • So you are saying the AFL can duplicate its sucess in Japan in the US without providing a solid rationale apart from brand name.  Not sure what ACA has to do with it?  Not much meat in the article.

2015-07-26

2015-07-25

2015-07-24

2015-07-23

  • pravchaw commented on Thomas Macpherson's article 07-23 09:16
    The Overreaction Hypothesis
    DISCLOSURE: We are long SWI In 1863 during the battle of Gettysburg, Union general Daniel Sickles decided to move his troops far in advance of the...
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    pravchaw 07-23 10:16
    • Interesting idea.  I observed the same recently with UTX.   The stock was chugging along and then boom 20% correction in short order.

      With SWI the excessive stock option comp identified by Adib supra  is worrying as it speaks to agency problems and governance.  Its mostly the case when there is a big gap between GAAP and cash accounting (pun intended)

2015-07-22

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