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batbeer2  Batbeer

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  • batbeer2 2016-06-23 10:24
    Hi brinsley, thanks for the heads-up on Kone. Hadn't really looked at that one for a while and the P/E is not as high as it used to be last time I checked. I don't mnd the currency they report in. If Schindler moves its head office to Luxemburg then they start reporting in euros but the company remains otherwise unchanged. What matters is their costs. I would have to check out the Swiss headcount as compared to the total to determine if I'm worried about currency fluctuations. best, ...
  • brinsley 2016-06-23 06:01
    Following on from Schindler/Kone is that as you mention the earnings of Schindler are hurt by the strength of the Swiss Frank due to its haven status, which is not likely to go away, so Kone may be a better bet as they report in EUR and this currency has come down in the last couple of years. Despite this, the market still gives Schindler a higher multiple.
  • Arjun Chan 2016-04-08 08:33
    Batbeer2, Did you forgot to leave a comment on my article :-)
  • batbeer2 2015-12-29 11:36
    Hi Peter, Alas, I think Aggreko's future will be less impressive than its past. Nowadays a larger part of their business comes from constructing more or less permanent electricity plants and "renting" that out. One could say they have become a financing company for third-world countries who need electricity generation capacity but have no cash. I like the short-term rental business of the portable generators much much better.  That IMHO is still a fantatstic ...
  • peterkooi 2015-12-29 06:13
    Hi Batbeer 2,

    You said one year ago:  If there are questions about Aggreko, I would be happy to share what I know about this great company.

    You still believe that?

    Bets.

    peter

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All batbeer2's Activities

  • batbeer2 commented on Adam Brownlee's article 09-24 13:18
    Determining the Best Growth Rates for a Discounted Cash Flow Model
    Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) once likened valuation to Aesop’s fable, “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” The trick though, he...
    View all 3 comments
    batbeer2 09-24 14:18
    • >> Deep net-nets might point to deep value but perhaps miss the strategy of quality companies at good to great prices.

      IMHO there is no such thing as a strategy of buying quality companies at good to great prices. Yes, some market participants do that, but it is not a strategy. There is only one strategy and it boils down to acquiring future excess cash flow at the lowest possible price.

      Many investors spend a significant amount of time figuring out the proper discount rate for stocks that are universally perceived to be safe (KO, PG, JNJ....).

      The day a stock is perceived to be not perfectly safe is the day:

      1) You don't need a spreadheet to prove it is cheap (AXP) and

      2) People call into question the quaitative aspects of the business.

      So now you're left with a choice.

      Either you spend a lot of time figuring out exactly what drives this business (the qualitative aspects) and finding out if and where the consensus is wrong or you stick with your model and apply that exclusively to a universe that is perceived to be perfecly safe.

      It is fair to say the latter option is mentally and emotionally less challenging. The aforementioned choice is exactly where investors who deserve excess returns and investors who want to believe the stock market is a place where you can find easy money part ways.

      Just some thoughts.


  • batbeer2 commented on Adam Brownlee's article 09-24 04:21
    Determining the Best Growth Rates for a Discounted Cash Flow Model
    Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) once likened valuation to Aesop’s fable, “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” The trick though, he...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 09-24 05:21
    • Hi Adam, thanks for you sharing your thoughts.

      You say:

      >> Although it is still necessary to navigate the waters of cash flows and discount rates to devise a useful discounted cash flow model, this growth rate method puts us well on our way to figuring out how many birds are in the bush.

      I say:

      If you need to do a DCF, it is not cheap enough.
  • batbeer2 uploaded a new picture 04-22 11:42
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