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batbeer2  Batbeer

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  • batbeer2 2016-06-23 10:24
    Hi brinsley, thanks for the heads-up on Kone. Hadn't really looked at that one for a while and the P/E is not as high as it used to be last time I checked. I don't mnd the currency they report in. If Schindler moves its head office to Luxemburg then they start reporting in euros but the company remains otherwise unchanged. What matters is their costs. I would have to check out the Swiss headcount as compared to the total to determine if I'm worried about currency fluctuations. best, ...
  • brinsley 2016-06-23 06:01
    Following on from Schindler/Kone is that as you mention the earnings of Schindler are hurt by the strength of the Swiss Frank due to its haven status, which is not likely to go away, so Kone may be a better bet as they report in EUR and this currency has come down in the last couple of years. Despite this, the market still gives Schindler a higher multiple.
  • Arjun Chan 2016-04-08 08:33
    Batbeer2, Did you forgot to leave a comment on my article :-)
  • batbeer2 2015-12-29 11:36
    Hi Peter, Alas, I think Aggreko's future will be less impressive than its past. Nowadays a larger part of their business comes from constructing more or less permanent electricity plants and "renting" that out. One could say they have become a financing company for third-world countries who need electricity generation capacity but have no cash. I like the short-term rental business of the portable generators much much better.  That IMHO is still a fantatstic ...
  • peterkooi 2015-12-29 06:13
    Hi Batbeer 2,

    You said one year ago:  If there are questions about Aggreko, I would be happy to share what I know about this great company.

    You still believe that?



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All batbeer2's Activities

  • batbeer2 commented on Grahamites's article 07-25 15:19
    The Other Side of the Big Short
    There have been a lot of discussions since the book “The Big Short” was published and the subsequent production of the eponymous movie. I...
    View all 21 comments
    batbeer2 07-25 16:19
    • >> I think some of you are expecting Munger to ascend into heaven:)

      Hmm... food for thought, thanks.

      Without getting into the morality of things, I think we can agree that Munger could have more money than he has if he believed that was the most important thing in life. 
  • batbeer2 commented on Grahamites's article 07-23 15:21
    The Other Side of the Big Short
    There have been a lot of discussions since the book “The Big Short” was published and the subsequent production of the eponymous movie. I...
    View all 16 comments
    batbeer2 07-23 16:21
    • >> Finally the fact that burry and paulson could be looking and waiting years for the next big short is not necessary wrong neither bad ... Munger has Made really big money in 1973 buying Washington post and in 2009 buying wfc (profiting from the fear spread by the housing crisis) at the bottom .... He could have done his career with this 2 investments alone.

      Ah, but the point here is not that it will take a long time between opportunities.

      The point here is that you risk spending the rest of your life looking for (legal and highly leveraged) ways of benefitting from government bailouts. Let's say you spend a decade looking for stuff like that and then you find an opportunity. You're managing other peoples money and the trade is hugely profitable and certainly legal but the morality of the trade is at best questionable? What do you do?

      The risk is not in the infrequency of the opportunities, the risk is in corrupting yourself.

      Let's say Li Lu's talent could be focussed on all sorts of asset classes. Would he be a better man after anlysing this kind of stuff for a decade or two or would he be a better man after hunting for the next Geico for a decade ot two?
  • batbeer2 commented on Ben Reynolds's article 07-23 09:31
    How Much Do Interest Rates Affect the Market’s P/E Ratio?
    The 10-Year T-Bonds hit all time yield lows in July 2016. Interest rates are not just low, they are near all time lows. Average 10 year T-Bond...
    View all 2 comments
    batbeer2 07-23 10:31
    • Hi ben, you say:

      >> Before going further, it is important to note that interest rates are not dictated by the free market ... Instead, interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s primary tool in setting interest rates is controlling the Federal Funds Rate .... The Federal Funds rates indirectly determines borrowing rates for the entire U.S. economy.

      Wow, that is wonderful magic. Is this universal or is it a result of the U.S. having a much more advanced monetary system and the rest of us are in the dark ages?

      For roughly a century, people in the U.S. have "known" the fed simply sets the rate and the market follows. But just because you have never seen a black swan does not mean they do not exist. Anyone denying their existence just hasn't been around. I think it is fair to say many people in the U.S haven't been around. 

      At some point (perhaps not in my lifetime) the good people of the U.S. will learn that the fed's control of interest rates has limits and market forces do apply. Don't bet too heavily that the world is flat, black swans don't exist and the fed sets rates with no regared to market forces. 

      For now though I absolutely agree with your analysis.
  • batbeer2 uploaded a new picture 04-22 11:42
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