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batbeer2  Batbeer

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  • rgarga 2015-02-15 08:54
    Would like to have a conversation re posco if can? Maybe we can learn something from each other. 7066760284 or if yiu guve me your number, I can call you. Thank you.
  • batbeer2 2015-01-28 13:37
    Hi Tim, I believe it is possible to generate excess returns with technical analysis. It's just that anyone claiming it is easy is either lying or doesn't understand what it is really about. A friend of mine is a good (options) trader. If I had to hazard a guess he has an IQ well in excess of 155. The guy literally solves a 7 x 7 rubics cube blindfolded. He will gaze at it for 20 seconds and them proceed to solve it without looking at it again. That scares me. He is a very nice gu ...
  • trdoyle 2015-01-28 11:54
    Nice exchange with Dr. Price.  I fail to see how his data mining tactics can be applied with any reasonable amount of success going forward.

    Tim
  • coryashpt 2015-01-22 13:23
    Hi Batbeer2,
    I was disappointed in IBM's inability to right the ship and grow revenue.  I am encouraged by the growing margins and growth in strategic areas, although still a small part of the company.  I was also disappointed they didn't buy back more shares at such a low level.  Any thoughts?

    Best,

    Cory
  • coryashpt 2015-01-12 22:36
    batbeer2 : Hi Cory, Never heard of the company until now. I see that they have an office in Rotterdam which is my city. Shame on me. Often you'll see a company I think you will be pleasantly delighted by reading their shareholder reports and 10-ks.  They just increased the dividend today.  A very shareholder friendly company.  Now on sale of course but I am still trying to understand the moat they have enjoyed over the past 22 years or so.  Let's ke ...

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All batbeer2's Activities

  • batbeer2 commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 08-25 13:35
    Invest When You Feel the Worst
    Most of the damage has already been done. If the stock market climbs a wall of worry, then we’re certainly primed for better news. There is...
    View all 3 comments
    batbeer2 08-25 14:35
    • >> Invest When You Feel the Worst

      In my view if you are the kind of person who feels bad when stocks get cheaper, you shouldn't be investing in stocks at all. You can't win.
  • batbeer2 commented on GuruFocus's article 08-23 13:30
    August Buffett-Munger Bargain Newsletter is Ready for Download
    The Buffett-Munger Bargain newsletter is like the company covered in August last year, this month's newsletter is about a well-managed conglomerate...
    View all 2 comments
    batbeer2 08-23 14:30
  • batbeer2 and leeo2680 became friends 08-21 15:52
  • batbeer2 commented on Jae Jun's article 08-18 04:38
    Don’t Forget These 5 Advantages You Hold Over Professional Investors
    “Don’t bother. The professionals are better than you and they know something you don’t.” Really? There’s some truth to that, but...
    View all 6 comments
    batbeer2 08-18 05:38
    • I don't know this for a fact but I suspect a large majority of the market participants are exactly like the small investor you describe. The large investors (by definition?) are a minority. 

      So I ask, why is it relevant to have an advantage over a small minority of market participants? Seriously. 

      Another way to pose this question is this: How would you react if you got an invitation to turn pro? Would you trade in all these advantages if you got to play this game full time? If so what does that imply?

      Don't get me wrong, I believe these are truly advantages. I also believe most small investors turn these advantages against themselves. Case in point we have the advantage "you can afford to be patient" and lo and behold within the space of a few posts we have "you can move in and out of stocks without moving the market". So which would you rather have? 

      FWIW I think they are both advantages but I try to exploit the former. That is not to say anyone picking the latter is wrong but I am convinced that anyone who tells himself he can exploit both advantages is fooling himself.

      In short, the pros are not what you are up against. You are up against yourself.

      Just some thoughts, thanks for an interesting article.
  • batbeer2 commented on Canadian Value's article 08-18 02:45
    The Shot Not Heard Around the World - Euro Pacific Capital
    China’s recent move to devalue the yuan has sent shock waves through the global financial markets and has convinced most observers that a new front...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 08-18 03:44
    • Hi Canadian Value, at last some nuanced commentary on the Chinese decision, thanks.

      First off, it is only possible to peg your currency to another currency if it is in fact overvalued. If that were not the case, you get illegal exchanges and the government will be forced to its knees. You cannot peg your currency to another if it is intrinsically worth less. That is not a sustainable policy. It has been tried often enough and it never works.

      So what does this mean? Money represents a unit of labor and the Chinese policy meant that for decades, a unit of Chinese labor could be bought for less than the value added by that worker. As a result the Chinese economy outgrew the rest of the workd and in my view deservedly so.

      Of course anyone familiar with China's 12th (= current) five year plan is aware that the government adopted a policy to raise minimum wages by about 15% each year. Workers get paid twice as much money now than they were in 2010 for the same unit of work.

      So after many decades, workers finally got their raise but it also means the yuan has becomes worth much less in real terms (and relative to the dollar) simply because workers get more yuans for the same unit of labor.

      And now they've had to unpeg it and are letting it float.

      If I'm right it means:

      1) The yuan and the dollar are now roughly in balance in real terms; if one is overvalued in real terms then so is the other. 

      2) From now on the yuan is likely to fluctuate against all other currencies; there is no way back.

      3) Nam Tai has the right idea to shut down its manufacturing operations and transform its property into malls and hotels.

      Just random thoughts.
  • batbeer2 commented on The Science of Hitting's article 08-17 14:40
    Weight Watchers: Three Takeaways From the Second Quarter
    Weight Watchers (WTW) recently reported second quarter results, and there were a few things that caught my eye. Just to be clear, this isn’t a...
    View all 7 comments
    batbeer2 08-17 15:40
    • >> Hopefully someone smarter than myself will share their insight.

       

      Martin Whitman (Trades, Portfolio)s/Third Avenue's discussions of bonds in (some of) their letters are IMHO worth reading. Whitman was kind enough to spell it out in terms even I could understand. 

      In this particular case I think you and I can agree that that the assets (brands, buildings, websites, cash etc...) taken together are worth significantly more than $1B unlevered. 

      So now if I came across a WTW bond at 20 cts on the dolar the implied EV of the company would be much less than $1B and that would be the end of my quantitative analysis ;-)

      Of course I would then have to check if it was bond issued and secured by the company and not some subsidiary but you need to check such issues with stocks too.

      The main point (what I learnt from Whitman) is that if it is cheap enough, you do not have to worry too much about the seniority of the bonds relative to other bonds. IF it comes to bankruptcy proceedings the seniority will determine wether the bonds are made whole or you get a chunk of equity.

      With WTW I don't think there is a high likleyhood of a liquidation in the sense that individual assets are sold in an auction. The value (if any) is very clearly in the (global) franchise and one thing I like about the US system is that it does retain as much value as possible in bankruptcy proceedings,

      So that makes WTW bonds inetersting to me (again, at the right price).

      Just some thoughts.
  • batbeer2 commented on The Science of Hitting's article 08-17 13:59
    Weight Watchers: Three Takeaways From the Second Quarter
    Weight Watchers (WTW) recently reported second quarter results, and there were a few things that caught my eye. Just to be clear, this isn’t a...
    View all 5 comments
    batbeer2 08-17 14:59
    • BTW SoH, thanks for the update. 

      I soured on WTW some time ago but I continue to track the company and I enjoy your updates; hope you prove me wrong.
  • batbeer2 commented on The Science of Hitting's article 08-17 13:39
    Weight Watchers: Three Takeaways From the Second Quarter
    Weight Watchers (WTW) recently reported second quarter results, and there were a few things that caught my eye. Just to be clear, this isn’t a...
    View all 3 comments
    batbeer2 08-17 14:39
    • >> I also don't see the benefits of debt vs equity in this scenario.

      That would depend on the price would it not?

      If you could buy bonds of Weight Watchers at 20cts on the dollar that would be interesting no?

      But yeah, I too would like to know how you could get your hands on that. Someone here mentions it is trading at 50cts to the dollar so there must be a market somewhere.
  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 08-17 09:06
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 118 comments
    batbeer2 08-17 10:06
    • Nam Tai filed an amendement to the tender offer with the SEC that IMHO is worth reading.

       

      The filing adresses some of the more pertinent questions raised by patient readers.

      >> Our directors and executive officers have advised us that they do not intend to tender shares in the Tender Offer.

      >> The directors and executive officers of the Company have also confirmed that they have no intention, and are not currently in discussion, to effect a merger, acquisition, take private or liquidating transaction.

      >> We believe there is a divergence between our current share price and the value of our land holdings, which is booked at their historical acquisition costs and the value of which may not be unlocked until we have completed certain land development projects.
  • batbeer2 commented on Benjamin Clark's article 08-17 07:10
    Berkshire Hathaway is Undervalued but Speculative
    Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic...
    View all 13 comments
    batbeer2 08-17 08:10
    • @Jtdaniel

      Off the top of my head Buffett worked for Graham in NYC untill Graham decided to retire and disolve his (hedge) fund. It is only then that Buffett started his own fund and eventually acquired Berkshire Hathaway.

      So if Graham ever owned shares of Berkshire Hathaway with Bufett at the helm it would have been for his personal account and not as a money manager.

      Geico though (which is of course a major part of Berkshire) was a Graham investment. In fact Ben Graham was on Geico's board of directors which is what brought Geico to Buffett's attention in the fisrt place.

      I would hazard a Guess that Graham owned Geico shares for his personal account. If so it would be more acurate to say it is Buffett who bought Graham's company (Geico) and not the other way round. 
  • batbeer2 uploaded a new picture 04-22 11:42
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