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batbeer2  Batbeer

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  • rgarga 2015-02-15 08:54
    Would like to have a conversation re posco if can? Maybe we can learn something from each other. 7066760284 or if yiu guve me your number, I can call you. Thank you.
  • batbeer2 2015-01-28 13:37
    Hi Tim, I believe it is possible to generate excess returns with technical analysis. It's just that anyone claiming it is easy is either lying or doesn't understand what it is really about. A friend of mine is a good (options) trader. If I had to hazard a guess he has an IQ well in excess of 155. The guy literally solves a 7 x 7 rubics cube blindfolded. He will gaze at it for 20 seconds and them proceed to solve it without looking at it again. That scares me. He is a very nice gu ...
  • trdoyle 2015-01-28 11:54
    Nice exchange with Dr. Price.  I fail to see how his data mining tactics can be applied with any reasonable amount of success going forward.

  • coryashpt 2015-01-22 13:23
    Hi Batbeer2,
    I was disappointed in IBM's inability to right the ship and grow revenue.  I am encouraged by the growing margins and growth in strategic areas, although still a small part of the company.  I was also disappointed they didn't buy back more shares at such a low level.  Any thoughts?


  • coryashpt 2015-01-12 22:36
    batbeer2 : Hi Cory, Never heard of the company until now. I see that they have an office in Rotterdam which is my city. Shame on me. Often you'll see a company I think you will be pleasantly delighted by reading their shareholder reports and 10-ks.  They just increased the dividend today.  A very shareholder friendly company.  Now on sale of course but I am still trying to understand the moat they have enjoyed over the past 22 years or so.  Let's ke ...

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All batbeer2's Activities

  • batbeer2 commented on The Science of Hitting's article 11-25 15:00
    Confidence and Concentration Risk
    In a recent article, “Shortcomings in My Investment Process” (here), I mentioned something that’s inherent / ingrained in my way of thinking...
    View all 10 comments
    batbeer2 11-25 15:00
    • >> There will probably be a lot of times you're left feeling that you were too timid,

      LOL that would depend on the size of my initial position no?
  • batbeer2 commented on The Science of Hitting's article 11-25 13:13
    Confidence and Concentration Risk
    In a recent article, “Shortcomings in My Investment Process” (here), I mentioned something that’s inherent / ingrained in my way of thinking...
    View all 5 comments
    batbeer2 11-25 13:13
    • FWIW I'm with Tom on this one.

      By waiting till a stock drops 50% before you buy more you also "solve" the problem of the oversized position (at buy time at least).
  • batbeer2 commented on The Science of Hitting's article 11-16 13:17
    Shortcomings in My Investment Process
    Earlier this year, when Mr. Market wasn’t too impressed by the collection of companies within my investment portfolio, I wrote an article about the...
    View all 2 comments
    batbeer2 11-16 13:16
    • Hi SoH.

      Thanks for another article worth reading. You say:

      >> "...... mixed with a fair bit of patience, I believe I can find opportunities where better-than-average returns (based on what the market has historically produced) can be expected with a high degree of confidence over time."

      I would argue the goal is not to achieve better than average returns but satisfactory returns. I suspect a lot of investors with above average returns may not find them satisfactory. Others may find their returns satisfactory regardless of whether someone else is getting richer faster.

      It boils down to the question what your sanity is worth. You can become very rich not trying to beat the market or you can become Ackman.

      As to the subject of your post:

      If your proces is what you need to do stay rational, then that is the best proces for you. Some hunt with shot and buy a basket of stocks at a deep discount to tangible book while others feel a need to do a lot of research; trying to behave like the outright owner of a business. They hunt with a rifle.

      Either way, if it helps you buy more shares when they're cheap, it is a good proces.

      In short, it is not about a proces that may or may not generate higher returns. It is about what a given investor needs to do to behave rationally.

      Just some thoughts.
  • batbeer2 commented on Ken McGaha's article 11-16 09:04
    Failing to Buy Cal-Maine Foods Now Could Leave You With Egg on Your Face Later
    I am always willing to buy value wherever I find it. However, anyone who has spent significant amounts of time following my research will be quite...
    View all 3 comments
    batbeer2 11-16 09:04
    • Hi Ken,

      Thanks for you response.

      It seems Cal-Maine has done a lot of things right in recent years. It's just that I don't fully understand what exactly they have been doing right and whether it is sustainable.

      You say:

      >> If I have 10 times more sales than my competitor, I don't have 10 CEO's or 10 times as many peopel in the purchasing or accounting departments.

      Yes, there are economics of scale in any business but if this business were about labour costs, we would all be eating Chinese (or Vietnamese) table eggs. Another way to think of this is to realise that a merger of the two largest table egg producers in Oregon is probably not going to bother a producer in Florida.

      For the sake of this argument, let's say 5% of the cost of an egg is personell (that would be your 10 CEOs). Now let's say the transportation is 20% of cost. In such a scenario, location trumps size. I would sure like to see a breakdown of the cost of a table egg at the grocery.

      Given that a hen eats 200g of feed for each 50g egg produced, I'd say it's best to locate your egg farm at the nearest grain store within eight hours drive of the grocery you plan to sell to. BTW, hens with more room to move eat more and produce less.

      As far as negotiating power.... I'm not fully convinced Cal-Maine can charge more becasue they are bigger. The smaller egg farms are privately owned so it is difficult to quantify this effect if any. Perhaps the guy selling Chevrolets is not charging enough. You see, GM produces more vehicles than almost anyone else and they have a hugely fragmented customer base. Cal-Maine does not.
  • batbeer2 commented on Duane Ellsworth's article 11-15 04:20
    The Hypocrisy of Berkshire Hathaway
    Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) long-time vice chairman, Charlie Munger (Trades, Portfolio), has no qualms bashing the "unethical" practices of Valeant...
    View all 11 comments
    batbeer2 11-15 04:20
    • "..... enormous damage to society" by displacing the "water that children and adults consume with sugar water."

      ROFL that's an argument only a fool who spends too much time on Wallstreet could make.

      As a matter of fact (and I do mean fact) in most places it is safer to drink Coca-Cola than (tap) water. Coca Cola will provide a safe non-alcoholic drink where government or anyone else is unable to provide plain drinking water safely. Coca Cola is the largest (and non-regulated) utility on our planet.
  • batbeer2 uploaded a new picture 04-22 11:42
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