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  • batbeer2 2016-06-23 10:24
    Hi brinsley, thanks for the heads-up on Kone. Hadn't really looked at that one for a while and the P/E is not as high as it used to be last time I checked. I don't mnd the currency they report in. If Schindler moves its head office to Luxemburg then they start reporting in euros but the company remains otherwise unchanged. What matters is their costs. I would have to check out the Swiss headcount as compared to the total to determine if I'm worried about currency fluctuations. best, ...
  • brinsley 2016-06-23 06:01
    Following on from Schindler/Kone is that as you mention the earnings of Schindler are hurt by the strength of the Swiss Frank due to its haven status, which is not likely to go away, so Kone may be a better bet as they report in EUR and this currency has come down in the last couple of years. Despite this, the market still gives Schindler a higher multiple.
  • Arjun Chan 2016-04-08 08:33
    Batbeer2, Did you forgot to leave a comment on my article :-)
  • batbeer2 2015-12-29 11:36
    Hi Peter, Alas, I think Aggreko's future will be less impressive than its past. Nowadays a larger part of their business comes from constructing more or less permanent electricity plants and "renting" that out. One could say they have become a financing company for third-world countries who need electricity generation capacity but have no cash. I like the short-term rental business of the portable generators much much better.  That IMHO is still a fantatstic ...
  • peterkooi 2015-12-29 06:13
    Hi Batbeer 2,

    You said one year ago:  If there are questions about Aggreko, I would be happy to share what I know about this great company.

    You still believe that?

    Bets.

    peter

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All batbeer2's Activities

  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 5 hr ago
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 140 comments
    batbeer2 08-26 13:48
    • Hi Bowen

      I don't think the answers to your questions are knowable so I can only speculate.

      So here goes.

      The share price is just a notch above what is was when I wrote the article so I believe it is still very cheap. The fact that it has been a lot cheaper in between does not change that. Also, someone mentioned mr. Koo excercising options at $8 so presumably he thinks it is cheap @ $8.

      So I'd bet on them doing the buyback next week at prices < $15.

      AFAIK Mr. Koo has never not done something he said he'd do even if it cost him.

      The question for me is, where does that $50m come from? They cannot spend all the cash buying back shares and also use the cash to pay for development. They had that piece of land for sale in Wuxi. They have been looking to offload that for some time now. Perhaps they found a buyer and raised some cash there. 
  • batbeer2 commented on John Huber's article 08-25 01:27
    A 1977 Warren Buffett Interview From the WSJ Archives
    Someone I’m connected with on Linkedin sent me this old article from 1977 in the Wall Street Journal on Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio). I...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 08-25 02:27
    • >> Mr. Buffett has taken some lumps. Several years ago, for example, Berkshire Hathaway lost half of a $6 million investment in Vornado Inc., a discount retailing concern based in New Jersey.

      Off the top of my head Vornado evenyually worked out reasonably well. They are now a REIT. Interestingly the guy now running Seritage (SRG), Banjamin Schall worked at Vornado. Mr. Schall, who oversaw Vornado's suburban retail shopping center business, left to become chief operating officer of General Growth's spinoff, Rouse Properties. Now he's at Seritage.

      Guess who bought a chunk of Seritage?
  • batbeer2 updated album 08-24 08:45
    My Album
    total 57 pictures
  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 08-23 00:10
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 138 comments
    batbeer2 08-23 01:10
    • >> The buybacks are certainly a very bullish sign. We are a long way away from $50

      Yes. I think there's a rational case to be made for that value. Especially if they buy back more shares.

      As noted previously I'm a fan of M. K. Koo so consider me biassed. If the shares are worth multiples of $5.5 then buying back a lot of shares < 10 is always good. We are however also a long way from complete development. My prediction is that the stock will fluctuate ;-)
  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 08-22 15:53
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 136 comments
    batbeer2 08-22 16:52
    • Hi Maarten,

      While we're on the topic of Dutch things, where you at?
  • batbeer2 commented on Holly LaFon's article 08-21 15:17
    Warren Buffett Q2: Boosts Apple, Cuts Wal-Mart & Suncor by Nearly a Third
    Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) dropped his fresh, second-quarter portfolio Monday afternoon, showing the investor had little purchasing activity...
    View all 2 comments
    batbeer2 08-21 16:17
    • >> Why did Buffett buys Liberty Global when most of the findamentals are in the red?

      Perhaps what you're looking at is not the same as what he's looking at.

      - What does a typical Liberty Global customer pay

      - What does it cost the company to provide that service?

      - What would it cost a competitor to provide that service?

      And then after you know these things you try to figure out why the numbers you're looking at look bad.
  • batbeer2 commented on Ben Strubel's article 08-19 15:08
    Should Tobacco Investors Fear Plain Packaging Laws?
    Over the last few years there has been a push by governments across the globe to severely restrict the type of cigarette packaging...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 08-19 16:08
    • Hi Ben,

      I thonk you found logical answers but there's a chance you got the questions wrong.

      Historically the ban on advertising has been a huge benefit for the established tobacco companies. With no hope of gaining market share through aggressive advertising, there can be no new entrant. Once consumers are accustomed/addicted to a specific brand/taste, that's it.

      This is not theory, it is reality. Just name one brand today that wasn't around in 1980. I suppose in the 70s advertising used to be a huge cost for tobacco companies. Now its gone.

      So now to the topic of "plain" packaging.

      If (as you point out) counterfeit cigarettes are a problem then plain packaging might be a huge boon for the established brands. If all cigarette boxes are to be white/plain then there must be some way for customers to find out if the product is genuine. There will be some sort of seal. Importantly, this seal  will be checked meticulously by customers. This might make it that much harder to sell a countefeit box of cigarettes. Cunsumers will no longer just grab a box with familiar colours.

      Once again, that which might be perceived as a problem for the tobacco companies might very well turn out to be a positive factor for the incumbents.

      Just some thoughts.

       
  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 08-19 06:00
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
    View all 134 comments
    batbeer2 08-19 07:00
    • Thanks guys, especially for the links.

      I think have nothing to add.
  • batbeer2 uploaded a new picture 04-22 11:42
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