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batbeer2  Batbeer

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  • rgarga 2015-02-15 08:54
    Would like to have a conversation re posco if can? Maybe we can learn something from each other. 7066760284 or if yiu guve me your number, I can call you. Thank you.
  • batbeer2 2015-01-28 13:37
    Hi Tim, I believe it is possible to generate excess returns with technical analysis. It's just that anyone claiming it is easy is either lying or doesn't understand what it is really about. A friend of mine is a good (options) trader. If I had to hazard a guess he has an IQ well in excess of 155. The guy literally solves a 7 x 7 rubics cube blindfolded. He will gaze at it for 20 seconds and them proceed to solve it without looking at it again. That scares me. He is a very nice gu ...
  • trdoyle 2015-01-28 11:54
    Nice exchange with Dr. Price.  I fail to see how his data mining tactics can be applied with any reasonable amount of success going forward.

  • coryashpt 2015-01-22 13:23
    Hi Batbeer2,
    I was disappointed in IBM's inability to right the ship and grow revenue.  I am encouraged by the growing margins and growth in strategic areas, although still a small part of the company.  I was also disappointed they didn't buy back more shares at such a low level.  Any thoughts?


  • coryashpt 2015-01-12 22:36
    batbeer2 : Hi Cory, Never heard of the company until now. I see that they have an office in Rotterdam which is my city. Shame on me. Often you'll see a company I think you will be pleasantly delighted by reading their shareholder reports and 10-ks.  They just increased the dividend today.  A very shareholder friendly company.  Now on sale of course but I am still trying to understand the moat they have enjoyed over the past 22 years or so.  Let's ke ...

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All batbeer2's Activities

  • batbeer2 commented on Dhandoisms's article 10-06 12:49
    The Most Important Thing – Recognizing One’s Biases
    It is a well-known fact that the human race in general, and those of us who invest in particular, suffer from a broad range of biases – some of...
    View all 3 comments
    batbeer2 10-06 13:49
    • >> In other words I prefer my thinking to be as flexible as possible.

      Agreed. Then again, better the devil you know than the one you think you like better ;o)

      If a company is truly great (eg: Costco) then it will still be great next year. There is no hurry to buy. The greatness, by definition, doesn't dissipate in a couple of quarters.

      I have been tracking Costco for years now. While I don't own that stock, I track Costco at least as well as the stocks I happen to own. Whether or not Costco ever becomes available at a price I'm willing to pay... i don't know. And yes, I try think about what could kill that company etc.

      In other words, I try to get most of the thinking and worrying done before I buy.

      Another attribute of a great company is that it is more in control of its destiny than a not-so-great company. Case in point, some minister in Saudi Arabia has more control over Chesapeake's margins than Doug Lawler.

      At say.... Psychemedics (PMD), Ray Kubacki has his fair share of problems, but he doesn't have to worry about someone on the other side of the planet turning open the spigots and providing PMD's product at a loss for the next five years.

      So with the right company the day-to-day news is slighty less relevant and any thinking/reading you do today is less likely to be wortless due to some news headline tomorrow.

      In short, I don't beleive in buy-and-forget but I do believe if I can get the right company at the right price I expect to hold that stock for a very very long time.

      It may be subjective.
  • batbeer2 commented on Dhandoisms's article 10-05 11:39
    The Most Important Thing – Recognizing One’s Biases
    It is a well-known fact that the human race in general, and those of us who invest in particular, suffer from a broad range of biases – some of...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 10-05 12:39
    • Thanks for an interesting article on a crucial subject. While I agree with what you have written, I would take the exact opposite position on two of your suggestions.

      You say: "Don’t get married to a given company:"

      I say: get married to the right company. If nothing else, that approach will help you eliminate 95% of the stocks out there within minutes. It saves a lot of time.

      You say: "Separate yourself from the newsflow:"

      I say: Immerse yourself in the right newsflow.

      IMHO it is better not to fight your emotions; instead, try to control them (there is a difference).

      On a similar note, you can go out there and hunt for as many partners as you can get.... and over time you will end up with a certain result. 

      Or you can go out and try not to be attracted to any partners at all.... again you are likely to end up with a certain result.

      Or you go out there looking for the single best partner you can find and fully commit to that.... and you will probably end up with a certain result.

      You'll note all these approaches can be defended rationally. In my view you are suggesting the more ascetic approach while I suggest it is possible to let emotions into your investment proces and still have a great outcome.

      Also, as an admirer of Blaise Pascal (as in Pacal's wager), I would argue that only one of the options I mentioned can possibly (but not certainly) lead to happiness. To me the choice is simple.

      Just random thoughts.
  • batbeer2 uploaded a new picture 04-22 11:42
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