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batbeer2  Batbeer

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  • rgarga 2015-02-15 08:54
    Would like to have a conversation re posco if can? Maybe we can learn something from each other. 7066760284 or if yiu guve me your number, I can call you. Thank you.
  • batbeer2 2015-01-28 13:37
    Hi Tim, I believe it is possible to generate excess returns with technical analysis. It's just that anyone claiming it is easy is either lying or doesn't understand what it is really about. A friend of mine is a good (options) trader. If I had to hazard a guess he has an IQ well in excess of 155. The guy literally solves a 7 x 7 rubics cube blindfolded. He will gaze at it for 20 seconds and them proceed to solve it without looking at it again. That scares me. He is a very nice gu ...
  • trdoyle 2015-01-28 11:54
    Nice exchange with Dr. Price.  I fail to see how his data mining tactics can be applied with any reasonable amount of success going forward.

    Tim
  • coryashpt 2015-01-22 13:23
    Hi Batbeer2,
    I was disappointed in IBM's inability to right the ship and grow revenue.  I am encouraged by the growing margins and growth in strategic areas, although still a small part of the company.  I was also disappointed they didn't buy back more shares at such a low level.  Any thoughts?

    Best,

    Cory
  • coryashpt 2015-01-12 22:36
    batbeer2 : Hi Cory, Never heard of the company until now. I see that they have an office in Rotterdam which is my city. Shame on me. Often you'll see a company I think you will be pleasantly delighted by reading their shareholder reports and 10-ks.  They just increased the dividend today.  A very shareholder friendly company.  Now on sale of course but I am still trying to understand the moat they have enjoyed over the past 22 years or so.  Let's ke ...

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All batbeer2's Activities

  • batbeer2 commented on Vitaliy Katsenelson's article 06-30 12:10
    The Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger Show
    A friend told me that he doesn’t go to the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting — or what is also known as the Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 06-30 13:10
  • batbeer2 commented on Jonathan Poland's article 06-30 11:56
    Delta Airlines: Lessons From Warren Buffett
    Every time I see interest increase in the airline industry, I think about two quotes from two of my most favorite billionaires. Richard Branson once...
    View all 3 comments
    batbeer2 06-30 12:56
    • Hmmm...

      I live in Euroland and on the LSE Ryanair went from EUR 3.5 to 12 or something since q1 2011. Also they paid out some special dividends along the way. In dollar terms it hasn't done quite as well though.

      As to your question..... no I wouldn't buy at these prices. But Ryanair now has a larger and newer fleet than they had when I wrote that article. Net-net the stock still isn't very expensive. 

      As for depreciation, I think that is wildly misunderstood. A widebody can set you back $200 million and  this leaves people with a sense that airlines are a capital intensive business. The logic being that $200m is a significant chunk of change so this business is heavy on the assets.

      Sounds right?

      Well, it is wrong.

      That $200m plane will still be worth something 30 years later. Per $1 spent, the depreciation will set you back about $0.05. There aren't many assets that depreicate at a slower rate.

      For comparison, spend $200m on a boatload of smartphones and/or new cars and see what your assets are worth in 30 months. 

      I find it interesting that Ryanair seems to be the only company in the space that really gets this point. 

      Ryanair regularly has a significant fleet of brand new planes sitting idle. They righly aren't worried that the depreciation will kill them. Instead they worry about flying unprofitable routes.

      That is exactly what the competiton gets wrong. The competition is forever flying unprofitable routes hoping to connect more customers to the small number of profitable routes they do have; a pipe dream.

      just some random thoughts.
  • batbeer2 commented on Jonathan Poland's article 06-29 16:49
    Delta Airlines: Lessons From Warren Buffett
    Every time I see interest increase in the airline industry, I think about two quotes from two of my most favorite billionaires. Richard Branson once...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 06-29 17:49
    • Hi Jonathan Poland

      you say:

      >> Every time I see interest increase in the airline industry, I think about two quotes from two of my most favorite billionaires.

      ... Buffett has said that “investors have poured their money into airlines and airline manufacturers for 100 years with terrible results, it’s been a death trap…”

      Meanwhile Berkshire is buying Precision Castparts.

      Also, in my experience, airlines are among the easiest companies to analyse. You have cash, you have planes (pretty liquid assets) and you usually have a huge pile of obscure liabilities.

      Whenever you are able to add it all up and then you conclude you've  found an airline with a strong balance sheet trading at a significant discount to the value of the planes, then it is a clear and simple value investment. Airlines like that do exist!

      I seem to remember some halfwit did a piece on an airline a while ago on this site. Please note the part about "why this is cheap". That is an almost exact reproduction of the reasons you site why one should avoid the industry. I leave it to you to figure out if that idea subsequently generated satisfactory results.

      In short, for an airline it is helpful if you (attempt to) add up the value of their planes and subtract the liabilities before you draw conclusions.
  • batbeer2 commented on Joseph L Shaefer's article 06-27 12:13
    Invest In “Europe?” No. In European Companies? Yes!
    Is Germany a bully, intent only upon establishing a new mercantilism using foreign labor and resources to create finished goods to sell back to their...
    View all 2 comments
    batbeer2 06-27 13:13
    • >> Now, what you choose to buy in Europe is affected by the value of the euro vis-à-vis the currencies of other regions with whom they trade internationally. The weaker the euro, the cheaper European companies’ goods and services are in the target nations’ (those they export to) currencies.

      ROFL

      Nestle, Unilever, Shell, Volkswagen, Merck, Schindler, Kone ....

      How does any of the stuff you mention have anything to do with the value of their stock and/or their profits? Tell me, Is Kone going to earn more or less if the euro ceases to exist or the dollar/euro exchange rate is cut in half? 

      After you've figured out the answer to that question, would you then rather pay for Kone stock in US dollars on the OTC thereby dodging any tricks issues with the euro or would you rather pay for your Kone shares in Euros on the Helsinki stock exchange.?

      Tell, me what is the difference between a Kone share paid for in dollars or in Euros?

      Or Drachmas?

      Is it more risky to buy GE stock in Frankfurt with euros or would one be wiser to buy the same stock on the NYSE and pay for the stock in dollars? Again is there any difference? 

      The point here is that stocks are not cash.

      Bear in mind that anyone who holds a currency that is rapidly losing its value will try to exchange that cash for any other type of liquid asset (other than cash or bonds). As a result, stocks go up.

      Check out the performance of the stock market in Zimbabwe when they had hyperinflation over there to see a practical example of what happens.
  • batbeer2 commented on GuruFocus's article 06-23 13:54
    GuruFocus Now Provides 15 Years of Financial Data
    GuruFocus is very glad to announce that we are now providing 15 years of financial data to our subscribers. 15 years of financial data covers about...
    View all 3 comments
    batbeer2 06-23 14:54
    • >> GuruFocus is very glad to announce that we are now providing 15 years of financial data to our subscribers.

       

      Fantastic, thanks!
  • batbeer2 commented on Grahamites's article 06-22 11:05
    More Than Capacity to Suffer
    Renowned global value investor is famously known for the notion of “Capacity to Suffer.” When we think about Mr.Russo, “ Capacity to Suffer”...
    View all 2 comments
    batbeer2 06-22 12:05
    • >> Of these 9 were losers and 66 winners (of quite varying degrees!).

      WOW!

      I'm impressed, good job.

      I haven't checked all my trades but I reckon I'm at 75/25. Getting from 75/25 to 85/15 is a major step; one I have yet to make.
  • batbeer2 uploaded a new picture 04-22 11:42
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