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  • batbeer2 commented on Grahamites's article 07-23 15:21
    The Other Side of the Big Short
    There have been a lot of discussions since the book “The Big Short” was published and the subsequent production of the eponymous movie. I...
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    batbeer2 07-23 16:21
    • >> Finally the fact that burry and paulson could be looking and waiting years for the next big short is not necessary wrong neither bad ... Munger has Made really big money in 1973 buying Washington post and in 2009 buying wfc (profiting from the fear spread by the housing crisis) at the bottom .... He could have done his career with this 2 investments alone.

      Ah, but the point here is not that it will take a long time between opportunities.

      The point here is that you risk spending the rest of your life looking for (legal and highly leveraged) ways of benefitting from government bailouts. Let's say you spend a decade looking for stuff like that and then you find an opportunity. You're managing other peoples money and the trade is hugely profitable and certainly legal but the morality of the trade is at best questionable? What do you do?

      The risk is not in the infrequency of the opportunities, the risk is in corrupting yourself.

      Let's say Li Lu's talent could be focussed on all sorts of asset classes. Would he be a better man after anlysing this kind of stuff for a decade or two or would he be a better man after hunting for the next Geico for a decade ot two?
  • batbeer2 commented on Ben Reynolds's article 07-23 09:31
    How Much Do Interest Rates Affect the Market’s P/E Ratio?
    The 10-Year T-Bonds hit all time yield lows in July 2016. Interest rates are not just low, they are near all time lows. Average 10 year T-Bond...
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    batbeer2 07-23 10:31
    • Hi ben, you say:

      >> Before going further, it is important to note that interest rates are not dictated by the free market ... Instead, interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s primary tool in setting interest rates is controlling the Federal Funds Rate .... The Federal Funds rates indirectly determines borrowing rates for the entire U.S. economy.

      Wow, that is wonderful magic. Is this universal or is it a result of the U.S. having a much more advanced monetary system and the rest of us are in the dark ages?

      For roughly a century, people in the U.S. have "known" the fed simply sets the rate and the market follows. But just because you have never seen a black swan does not mean they do not exist. Anyone denying their existence just hasn't been around. I think it is fair to say many people in the U.S haven't been around. 

      At some point (perhaps not in my lifetime) the good people of the U.S. will learn that the fed's control of interest rates has limits and market forces do apply. Don't bet too heavily that the world is flat, black swans don't exist and the fed sets rates with no regared to market forces. 

      For now though I absolutely agree with your analysis.

2016-07-13

  • batbeer2 commented on Dr. Paul Price's article 07-13 15:50
    Stop the Presses!
    All discussions about the legality of “monetizing America’s debt” or holding to congressionally imposed “debt ceiling limits” were...
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    batbeer2 07-13 16:50
    • Thanks for an interesting read.

      You say: >> Picture the last year’s expansion in U.S. dollars in circulation as the equivalent of a stock dividend but with one very major exception. The U.S.’s old shareholders (also known as savers) did not receive any of the newly minted cash.

      I'm a bit confused.

      With shares, I understand that when a company issues new shares and someone (e.g. the CEO) gets those new shares then the old shareholders are diluted. The loss of the old shareholders is the gain of the CEO and vice versa.

      But with currency, how does this work? If more dollars are created, who gains? At what point does that entity or person gain control of the country? 

      You say: >> Exponential expansion of money over time is why the Fed’s own accounting showed an almost 96% decline in the dollar's consumer purchasing power from 1913, when the Fed started operations, through January of 2016.

      WOW, so this has been going on for a century. So now we know why Americans today are so much less weatlhy than their grandparents. Americans have been stealthily robbed of 96% of their wealth. This explains a lot. It also begs the question who has benefitted? Someone must be sitting on your grandpa's wealth.

      Perhaps you can point long-suffering Americans in the right direction to claw back some of the wealth they've lost since 1913. 

2012-04-22

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