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  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 7 hr ago
    Nam Tai - Value Idea Contest Submission
    The case for Nam Tai is simple. The company trades at a meaningful discount to book. This is remarkable in light of the fact that the book value of...
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    batbeer2 06-26 13:28
    • Hi Houmantamaddon,

      Thanks for your comment, yes I still track this.

      >> Do you think that the estimates are fair?

      Yes I saw the estimates. Savils says the market value of the completed building in Gushu (that's the plot on Nantai road in Shenzhen) should be: RMB 10 257 million.

      I think that works out to USD 1.5 billion.

      I take that from the bottom of page 6 of this file: http://www.namtai.com/sites/default/files/Valuation%20report%20by%20Savills%20in%202016.pdf

      The question is, how much are they going to spend to get there?

      I have seen all sorts of different (DCF) models but if I use $5000 per square meter x 134 000 square meters for the construction cost then I get roughly $700 million to build the whole thing. That works out to roughly $1.5B-$700m = $800m worth of profit for the project.

      So IMHO we are looking at $200m worth of net cash plus a project with a profit of $800m. That's $1B worth of future value trading for a market cap of $200m.

      Now if you like you can assume it takes them 5 years to get there and discount that future value at  15% for a present value of $500m.

      But hey, I've been bullish about this one for more than 3 years and the stock dont care. It is down more than 30% since I wrote this.

      Thanks for your comment. 

2016-06-21

  • batbeer2 commented on Lovisa Alvin's article 06-21 23:39
    The Swiss Franc's Dangerous Intersection With Brexit
    With much of the financial community walking on eggshells as it awaits the June 23 vote on whether the United Kingdom splits from the European Union...
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    batbeer2 06-22 00:39
    • >> Between 2003 and 2016 the inflation of the Swiss Franc was 7%. So a Swiss lost in this this 13 years every year 0.5% value of his money. (www.admin.ch).

      Yes. Bear in mind that someone with debt saw the value (in real terms) of what they owed decline. The loss of the guy with savings cancels out against the gain of the guy with debt. As a group then they should not complain. The question to me is why government would want to take money from savers (older people?) and hand that to borrowers (younger people?). 

      At the end of the day, cash is nothing but a claim on someones future labour. So a retiree who  worked hard and saved so (s)he could pay for someone younger to do stuff for them in their old age is being robbed of that reward.

      Just some thoughts.
  • batbeer2 commented on Holmes Osborne, CFA's article 06-21 13:56
    Schindler Holdings Has Been Going Up for Years
    Schindler Holding AG (SHLAF) (SHNDY) is arguably the best elevator manufacturer in the world. The company's elevators are found in the newest...
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    batbeer2 06-21 14:56
    • >> Why has equity been going down for the last few years?

       

      That is a very good question, you made me look.

      Short answer: not very clear.

      Long answer: Total assets are failry stable/flat and long-term liabilities are stable too. Certainly not oo much debt so that is fine. This means its the short-term liabilies that are dragginf the equity down. And they are. But at first glance it seems to be with the "other current laibilities" which is fairly meangless untill you take the time to read some annual reports and really dig in. Oddly enough I'd be looking for some pension accounting stuff/issues but that is just a hunch. Also it could be that soe of their assets are in dolalrs while some of their short-term laibilities are in Swiss Francs. With the Franc having risen a lot, that should have some efect on the equity no? But again, that is a hunch. It will take time to figure out the real answer to your question.

      What I can say though is that they have been spending a lot of their excess cash buying back stock. They've done that with the stock was trading at a high price to book ratio. I can tell you that buying back you stock at 5x book is going to send your book value per share down very quickly. That is certainly happening. Not saying that they are wrong to buy back that stock but it explains why their book value per share is dropping. But that was not your question :o)

      I like Schndler (and Kone) if I figure this out I'll let you know.

      For now, just some thoughts.

2016-06-16

  • batbeer2 commented on Shudeep Chandrasekhar's article 06-16 14:40
    Costco’s Declining Comps: Signs of Trouble or External Factors at Play?
    In what could be called a rare event, Costco (COST) posted flat comparable store sales for the first time in six years. Is that an exit signal for...
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    batbeer2 06-16 15:40
    • >> While most other retail chains actually posted positive growth in comps over the past two years, Costco is the only one that consistently declined in this area for four consecutive years.

      Thanks for a very intersting article.

      I would add that Costco is not a retailer. It is a price club. There is a big difference. A price club promises to sell its merchsandise at wholesale prices (that means no retail margin!). Its profits lie only in the membership fees. Any markup of the merchandise is there to cover the overhead costs (rent etc.)

      Costco has been criticised for its low retail margin but IMHO that is totally missing the point. Again, they are a price club and generating any profit at all from the merchandise would be dishonest. 

      Just some thoughts.

2012-04-22

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